Archiv des Autors: innovation

Dieter Zetsche beschwört den Wandel der Autobranche

Betont lässig: Daimler-Chef Dieter Zetsche brach in Paris mit den Traditionen der Autobranche. Er führte Freizeitmode vor und verkündete das neue Leitbild einer agilen Organisation.

(Foto: Daimler)

Dabei bremste Daimler bislang bei den alternativen Antrieben. Auch die jüngste Elektroauto-Studie geriet mutlos. Gelingt dennoch die Transformation zum Tech-Konzern?

Analyse von Joachim Becker

Die Schuhe sind Teil der Inszenierung: Wenn der 63-jährige Chef eines Weltunternehmens mit Jeans und Turnschuhen rumläuft, dann befindet er sich für gewöhnlich im Urlaub oder in der Midlife-Crisis. Dieter Zetsche will augenscheinlich nicht zum alten Eisen gehören. Doch sein Problem ist weniger privater als unternehmerischer Natur: Der Daimler-Boss will das Flaggschiff der deutschen Autoindustrie zur Tech-Company umbauen.

Vor einer Gründerzeit im Neckar-Valley muss er einige Altlasten bewältigen. Zum Beispiel den Erfolg des bewährten Geschäftsmodells: Trotz Rekordabsatzzahlen fordert Zetsche ein radikales Umdenken seiner Mitarbeiter. Statt sprudelnde Erlöse zu feiern, sollen sie sich an einer Revolution beteiligen. Ausgang offen.

Bisher stand Mercedes auf der Bremse

Was Zetsche auf dem Pariser Autosalon verkündet, ist eine Revolution von oben: „Wir wollen nicht nur die Verwandlung unserer Produkte vorantreiben, sondern auch die Verwandlung unserer Organisation signifikant beschleunigen.“ Bisher standen die Stuttgarter nicht nur bei alternativen Antrieben auf der Bremse. Kurz nach einer Welttournee mit Wasserstofffahrzeugen wurde 2013 die angekündigte Serienproduktion abgesagt. Im selben Jahr überließ man BMW i die Vorfahrt bei komplett neuen Elektroautos. Die ersten E-Smarts mit Hochtemperaturzellen hatten 2007 bloß Forschungscharakter. Später half Tesla auch bei der Mercedes-B-Klasse-e-cell mit Batterien nach. Trotzdem oder gerade deshalb zögerte der Elektroingenieur Zetsche, Milliarden auf eine ungewisse Elektro-Zukunft zu wetten.

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Zetsche ist kein junger Wilder wie Elon Musk, der als New-Age-Guru einer emissionsfreien Zukunft auftritt. Der Erfolg von Tesla und vor allem die Geschwindigkeit, mit der sich das Start-up weiterentwickelt, sorgen im Daimler-Vorstand allerdings für Stirnrunzeln. Der Elektro-Pionier punktet mit Software-Updates, die neue Funktionen ins Auto bringen. Trotz gravierender Rückschläge wie beim Autopiloten will Tesla das erste autonome Auto auf den Markt bringen.

Die Serienversion des Generation EQ kommt 2018

Bei dem halsbrecherischen Technologietempo gibt es eine Reihe von Unwägbarkeiten: „Unser Zielkorridor für den Elektroabsatz im Jahr 2025 liegt zwischen 15 und 25 Prozent. Genauer können wir es einfach nicht prognostizieren“, gesteht Mercedes-Vertriebsvorstand Ola Källenius. Trotzdem legt Daimler jetzt den Schalter für die neue Elektro-Submarke EQ um. Die Serienversion des Pariser Showcars „Generation EQ“ wird ab 2018 zum Preis eines „vernünftig ausgestatteten Mercedes GLC“ (also für rund 60 000 Euro) angeboten. Mindestens neun weitere reine E-Mobile vom Kompaktauto bis zum Supersportler sollen bis 2025 folgen.

Mercedes will bis 2025 Tesla als Marktführer bei Premium-Elektrofahrzeugen ablösen. Die leistungsstarken Stromer werden aber schon Ende dieses Jahrzehnts Standard sein – als Unterscheidungsmerkmal einer Marke taugen sie dann nicht mehr. Deshalb stürzen sich die Blechbieger in weitere Abenteuer: „Viele Autohersteller wollen heute Mobilitätsanbieter werden. Das ist schön und gut. Aber die Transformation der Branche ist noch viel grundlegender“, warnt der Daimler-Boss.

Daimlers Erfolgsgeschichte geschieht zu langsam

130 Jahre lang definierte sich die Autoindustrie über Hardware. Daimler ist das beste Beispiel, wie schwierig nun das Umdenken ist: Die Stuttgarter haben zwar 2007 das flexible Einweg-Carsharing mit vollvernetzten Smarts erfunden. Doch es dauerte zehn Jahre, um Car2go auf zwei Millionen Nutzer zu bringen. Was Daimler als Erfolgsgeschichte verkauft, geschieht letztlich zu langsam, um mit neuen Wettbewerbern zu konkurrieren. Maßgeschneiderte, automatisierte Mobilitäts-Services könnten dem Verkauf von Privat-Pkw in Zukunft mehr und mehr Konkurrenz machen. Niemand weiß aber, wie und wann sich der Wandel genau vollziehen wird.

Bisher sind die Entwicklungsabteilungen der Autohersteller entlang von neuen Produkten aufgestellt. Genauso wichtig werden allerdings innovative Geschäftsmodelle sein. Daimler will den Technologiewandel vom Kundenerlebnis her neu denken: „Wir erwarten, dass sich das Auto von einem Produkt in eine ultimative Plattform verwandelt. Das ist ein fundamentaler Perspektivenwechsel“, sagt Dieter Zetsche. Diese Plattform ruhe auf vier Säulen: Vernetzung (Connected), Autonomes Fahren, Sharing und Elektromobilität. Zusammen ergeben die Anfangsbuchstaben das Wort Case. „Wir haben gerade einen neuen Unternehmensbereich mit diesem Namen gegründet, um diese Themenfelder zusammenbringen“, so Zetsche.

Noch ist unklar, was die Kunden wollen

Den Kunden in den Mittelpunkt zu stellen, ist eine prima Idee. Das Problem ist nur: Kaum ein Mercedes-Käufer hat bisher nach Elektromobilen gefragt. Geschweige denn Interesse an einer Internet-Plattform gezeigt, über die er seine Luxuskarosse mit anderen teilen kann. Genau das will Mercedes mit einer Sharing-Plattform ab November dieses Jahres in Deutschland erproben.

Zetsche stellt in Paris jedoch klar, das keine einzelne Technologie oder Dienstleistung den Unterschied machen werde, sondern ein neuartiges Gesamterlebnis von Mobilität: „Jede der Case-Säulen hat das Potenzial, die gesamte Automobilindustrie auf den Kopf zu stellen. Aber die wahre Revolution ist die Verbindung dieser Aspekte in einem umfassenden, nahtlosen Paket.“

Zetsches ständiger Balanceakt

Alt und neu, analog und digital, Sakko zur verwaschenen Jeans: Als Vordenker balanciert Zetsche ständig zwischen den Gegensätzen. Seine Grundsatzrede auf dem Pariser Autosalon klingt über weite Strekken wie ein Appell an die eigene Belegschaft: Das Schweizer Uhrwerk als Zeichen für Verlässlichkeit und Präzision im mechanischen Zeitalter – „das bleibt auch in Zukunft wichtig!“, beruhigt er seine Mitarbeiter. Schon im nächsten Moment predigt er jedoch das Credo des digitalen Zeitalters: Ihm gefalle die Idee einer „agilen Schwarmorganisation“, verkündet der Manager mit dem grauen Walrossbart: „Case wird als rechtlich getrennte Organisation ein perfekter Startpunkt für diese Vorstellung sein.“

Mehr Silicon Valley wagen, ohne die Stärken der Vergangenheit aufzugeben, lautet die Botschaft. Noch weiß allerdings niemand, wie dieses Autofahren 2.0 wirklich aussieht, geschweige denn, wie man damit Geld verdient. Elektro-Studien wie der Mercedes Generation EQ und der VW I. D. zeigen in Paris jedenfalls das genaue Gegenteil einer Design-Revolution. Mit ihren mutlos-monolithischen Grundformen pendeln sie irgendwo zwischen Van und Crossover. Bloß nicht auffallen!

Der Fluch der großen Reichweite

Damit sich die Hoffnungsträger wenigstens ein bisschen vom Mainstream unterscheiden, wurde ihnen das Dach tief ins Gesicht gedrückt. Doch der Trick funktioniert nur auf geschickt fotografierten Bildern. Wer versucht hat, auf den Rücksitzen des VW I. D. zu sitzen oder sich unter dem Dachholm des Mercedes EQ durchzuschlängeln, erkennt den Schwindel: In der Serie werden aus halbwegs schnittigen Showcars bleischwere Hochdachautos. Das ist der Fluch der großen Reichweite.

Die Physik lässt sich auch im digitalen Zeitalter nicht überlisten: Stromer mit 500 Kilometer Radius benötigen riesige Unterflur-Batteriepakete, auf denen die Passagiere thronen. Tesla kann dieses hochgebockte Kutschendesign mit einem flachen Batterieformat recht gut kaschieren. Weil kein anderer Hersteller die schmalen Rundzellen von Panasonic verwendet, werden sich die Designer mit ihren Tesla-Fightern mächtig anstrengen müssen.

Auch Matthias Müller beschwört ein „neues Zeitalter“

Dass die meisten Kunden 500 Kilometer Batteriereichweite gar nicht brauchen, ist die Ironie dieses Technologiewandels. Bisher hat kaum jemand die Stromer als Erstauto für die ganze Familie verwendet, geschweige denn Urlaubsfahrten damit geplant. Das Wettrennen um den größten Batterieradius wendet sich also nicht an die umweltbewussten Pioniere, sondern an den komfortorientierten Otto-Normalverbraucher: Einmal pro Woche Tanken ist gelernt. Bloß nicht umgewöhnen!

Auch Matthias Müller beschwört in Paris ein „neues Zeitalter“: „Die Elektromobilität und digitale Vernetzung werden zu Game Changern“. Welche Spielregeln für eine neue Generation von Kunden gelten werden, weiß aber auch das Oberhaupt des Volkswagen-Konzerns nicht sicher zu sagen. Vielleicht sind es digital animierte Innenwelten, die ein neues Markenerlebnis schaffen. Auf dem Mercedes-Stand ließ sich Müller lange die Bedienphilosophie der EQ-Studie erklären. Die hochauflösenden 3-D-Landschaften auf dem Riesenbildschirm sollten ihn wohl von der Tristesse im VW I. D. ablenken.

Quelle: http://www.sueddeutsche.de/auto/die-zukunft-von-daimler-dieter-zetsche-beschwoert-den-wandel-der-autobranche-1.3193256

Munro Tears Cars Apart To Find Out Exactly How They’re Built

Ever wonder how much air vents cost on a Honda versus a Toyota, or how much a horn bracket weighs on a BMW? Unless you’re the most deeply obsessive car enthusiast in the world, probably not. But automakers care, and they’re always trying to figure out ways to outdo competitors—even at the tiniest level. Meet the company that tears down entire cars to help do that.

All automakers “cheat” off each other. They buy their competitors’ cars, disassemble them, and learn precisely how they work and how they’re made. This reverse engineering is called “competitive benchmarking,” and while sometimes it’s done in-house, there are also entire companies devoted to the practice. One of them is Munro and Associates, a firm of manufacturing experts contracted by OEMs and suppliers to tear down cars and car parts to the very last nut and bolt.

Imagine a place where auto engineers can check out parts of competitors’ cars like they’re library books. And where they can participate in deep-dive lectures on how other companies build vehicle systems, how the systems work, and how much they cost to make. That’s what Munro does.

Of course, there are some automakers out there who have their own internal labs for analyzing competitors’ cars, but Munro is a huge player in the industry, with multiple facilities teaching scores of companies the intricacies of automotive manufacturing, helping them learn about the competition and saving them time and money on their own future designs. Munro can do these kinds of teardowns more cheaply and effectively because it’s all they do. But not a ton of people outside the car industry know that they exist, or why they are necessary.

I stopped by Munro’s headquarters in Auburn Hills to take a look at what the company does, and was greeted by a building filled with completely— and I mean completely—dismantled automobiles, including that BMW i3 up top.

“Costing”

Munro tore that i3 into its more than 54,000 (that’s 31,000 mechanical, 23,000 electrical) individual parts, analyzing all of them for weight, cost, and manufacturing time needed, resulting in a 23,000 page report sold to automakers interested in learning the most minute of details of BMW’s plug-in hybrid electric city car.

If you don’t believe me when I say the company analyzed 54,000 parts, here’s a shelf filled with analyses of every part in the car, organized into different “zones.”

And these analyses don’t just include major components—it’s literally every single part, including fasteners. Here’s a look at just one of the books:

And here are two randomly-chosen pages from the enormous report. Want to know how much it costs BMW (or, more likely, its supplier) to make a horn bracket? Of course you do!

According to Munro, the horn bracket weighs 0.03 kg, and takes about 10 seconds to make for a paltry 18 cents.

And if that bracket isn’t exciting enough, you’re almost certainly chomping at the bit to learn how much it costs to make one of BMW’s fuse buss assemblies for its high voltage battery pack, and it looks like that 0.01 kg part is a whopping 89 cents that takes 39 seconds to build.

Sometimes a competitor interested in a certain vehicle buys that car for Munro to tear down. In other cases, Munro will buy it to sell the findings. The latter was the case with the i3.

How Munro comes up with these cost figures involves a lot of computerized modeling and expertise from people with decades of manufacturing experience.

That modeling can be visually depicted as a cost map, shown below. The cost map is essentially a second-by-second breakdown of the car’s—and its components’—exact manufacturing processes. Cost maps for entire cars are enormous, and—according to engineers at Munro—can span hundreds of yards in length when printed out. In the case of the i3, there were 196,000 manufacturing steps in total.

A closer look at this cost map reveals just how detailed Munro’s costing process is. It includes steps like “snap together,” “push on connector,” “twist wire,” “screw drive,” “turn assembly on” and other seemingly mundane—yet still time consuming—parts of the manufacturing sequence.

Each step has a time associated with it; Snap together, for example, takes one second, while “push on connector” takes two and “position lug” takes five.

In the end, the cost model shows how the car and its components are manufactured, and results in a report that accounts for everything from material cost to tool burden—which considers things like floor space required for certain tools, electricity to run those tools, and tool maintenance costs— to burden rate, which depends largely on labor costs associated with the countries in which the parts are made.

To come up with the right numbers, Munro has to know exactly which materials are used. Figuring that out part isn’t always simple, either. Sometimes bearings have exotic grades of steel, for example. So Munro might have to send out a sample to a lab to figure out the grade.

Munro also has to know how much of each component is made of each material to get an accurate cost. Take this BMW steering wheel above, which Munro had to cut into to figure out what and how much metal lies below the plastic cover.

For labor costs, it’s also not always straightforward figuring out where parts are made, either. Sure, it’s sometimes stamped into the part or there’s a sticker, but other times Munro either has to do research to figure out a part’s origin, or they just know where it’s made based on similar parts they’ve seen on other vehicles.

If you want the full report on that i3 I mentioned, it’ll cost you $150,000.

If you think I was kidding about Munro tearing down cars to every last nut and bolt: here are all the i3’s nuts and bolts connecting the various assemblies. Of course, they’re all weighed and priced.

How It Works

Baffled by how the company can have this kind of precision in their cost models, I sat down with Munro’s engineers to learn more.

They gave me an example of an instrument panel, saying they know it’s made of a certain type of plastic, requires a certain size tool (they also said the tool might require “slides” if there are special features involved) that takes a certain amount of money and time to operate , and the manufacturing sequence requires a certain amount of time to cool.

They know these things, they say, because they’ve done tons of research and built on decades of manufacturing experience from employees with backgrounds in various manufacturing and engineering disciplines.

I could tell the engineers I spoke with knew what they were talking about, as they could seemingly visualize how an instrument panel is made, waving their hands up and down trying to emulate the movement of the machines that turn a giant piece of plastic into a precisely formed dashboard.

Plus, the engineers told me, the cost models are proven. Some manufactures, they said, actually hand their own parts to Munro asking them to use their model to see how close they can get to the actual cost of manufacture. Munro says their numbers always come very close, and that they’ve even been accused of having insider information.

You Can Have Whatever You Like

But costing is only a part of what Munro does. A big part of what they offer to car companies is engineering expertise, holding detailed workshops for car companies to teach engineers how other companies are designing certain systems.

Let’s say a company interested in electrification might buy Munro a Tesla Model S. So Munro tears it down and invites engineers at that company to a series of workshops on various vehicle systems. One day, people from that company’s electrified powertrain team might attend a workshop on the Tesla’s battery pack. Or maybe people from the cooling system might show up to learn how Tesla keeps its cells and motors from overheating.

And the workshops aren’t just basic “here’s how this is built” presentations. Munro actually analyzes the systems and tries to answer complex questions like, for example, what Mazda does at a system level to give their 3 such good handling for its class. In some cases, they even send parts out to have them tested for strength of even waterproofness.

But one of the coolest things about Munro is the facilities are filled with torn-down car parts, all of which can be checked out like a library book for engineers to study and, if they want to, scan into their own CAD software for further analysis. That might sound like cheating, but that’s how engineers learn and stay current—SAE conferences aren’t always enough.

Want a piston? Sure. Want to study BMW’s seat foam? Why not? Hell, here’s the sound-deadening fiberglass found in the BMW i3’s muffler. It turns out there is 0.311 kg of fiberglass in there. Some muffler engineer out there might find that to be useful.

They had to disassemble the muffler to figure out what materials are inside and how much it costs to build the thing, as well as how it’s done— it all goes into that big, quarter-mile long costing map.

And if I still haven’t communicated just how far Munro actually takes this whole teardown thing, check this out: on the right is a wheel hub. It connects your suspension to your wheel, and normally, car manufacturers just buy that whole thing as an assembly.

But Munro didn’t just write “Hub Assembly: $50,” they actually tore into the assembly itself, cutting into the bearing surfaces to figure out exactly what materials comprise this hub, and how it’s all made.

Next, here are all the brake parts off the BMW i3:

Again, Munro didn’t just count the caliper assembly as one part, they tore it into its basic components: brackets, piston, bolts, etc— some of which are bagged, and all of which are tagged with information about what material comprises them is and how much they weigh.

Why Else Do Companies Need This Kind Of Detail?

Munro isn’t just there to help engineers learn about how the competition designs and assembles its cars, it’s also there to help automakers—who really should be called “auto assemblers”—figure out if they’re getting ripped off by their parts suppliers.

Knowing exactly how much it costs to build a wheel bearing, for example, can act as leverage for negotiation against a supplier of that part. At the same time, suppliers also go to Munro to learn. If, for example, one of their competitors is selling a part for what seems like impossibly too little, the supplier might ask Munro to tear it down and figure out how the competitor is saving cost.

And Munro does costing, benchmarking and even quality predictions for many different industries, not just automotive. That plane above is a Republic Seabee RC-3, which Munro says incorporated a “minimalist approach to Aircraft structural design,” making it a great way for Munro’s engineers to learn more about lightweight design.

Besides automotive and aerospace, Munro has worked with clients from the defense, marine, medical and the electronics industries. You name it, and Munro’s engineers tear it apart.

They even did analyses on rice-cookers for one company looking to reduce manufacturing costs and increase quality:

And that’s really their goal: they want to use their general manufacturing knowledge and their understanding of how various manufacturers accomplish certain tasks to help clients become more “lean”—to reduce time to market, to improve quality, to reduce research and development expenses, to reduce engineering and manufacturing costs, and to keep companies competitive.

Those are really the goals of competitive benchmarking in general, and Munro’s facility has demonstrated just to what lengths automakers go to scope out the competition.

Here’s more of what Munro does, particularly that i3:

The insides of a single battery cell
The high voltage battery pack casing
The little two-cylinder.
The baby crankshaft.
A baby piston.
Camshafts.
Charging module
Power modules from the battery pack.
Clutches found between electric drive and internal combustion engine.
Coils found in the electric motors.
An instrument panel beam (which, if I recall correctly, is magnesium).
Seat structure.
Suspension parts
More suspension parts.
More fasteners
windshields
Wiper motors
Passenger’s seat parts
The cooling system
This is the heater for the i3. It’s just a resistance coil plumbed in line with a 35 watt pump and the heater core.
The body-in-white of a Tata
Random parts
Republic Seabee RC-R
Airfoils from the Republic Seabee RC-R
Republic Seabee RC-R
Munro also tore down some air conditioning systems for an appliance company.

https://jalopnik.com/the-fascinating-company-that-tears-cars-apart-to-find-o-1787205420

Mercedes‘ Tesla killer is coming in 2019

mercedes eqScreenshot

Mercedes-Benz just made a huge move to take on Tesla.

The German automaker unveiled its all-electric SUV concept at the Paris Motor Show Thursday, and with a competitive price tag and solid range potential, it’s poised to become a big competitor in the EV space.

Called Generation EQ, the SUV concept is expected to have a range up to 310 miles.

Called Generation EQ, the SUV concept is expected to have a range up to 310 miles.

Mercedes-Benz

The production version of the SUV is expected to hit the roads in 2019, Dieter Zetsche, the head of the Mercedes-Benz car division, said at the Paris Motor Show press event. Mercedes is calling the SUV unveiled today a „close-to-production concept vehicle.“

The production version of the SUV is expected to hit the roads in 2019, Dieter Zetsche, the head of the Mercedes-Benz car division, said at the Paris Motor Show press event. Mercedes is calling the SUV unveiled today a "close-to-production concept vehicle."

Mercedes-Benz

The car will fall in the same price range as the GLC Crossover, which currently starts at $39,150. That’s a very competitive price for an electric SUV, considering Chevy Bolt’s all-electric SUV crossover will start at $37,500 when it hits showrooms at the end of 2016.

The car will fall in the same price range as the GLC Crossover, which currently starts at $39,150. That's a very competitive price for an electric SUV, considering Chevy Bolt's all-electric SUV crossover will start at $37,500 when it hits showrooms at the end of 2016.

Mercedes-Benz

The interior comes with a massive, 24-inch display that shows speed, range, driving data, and navigation information. The display will alert the driver if the car is running low on battery and of nearby charging stations. The steering wheel also comes with touch controls.

The interior comes with a massive, 24-inch display that shows speed, range, driving data, and navigation information. The display will alert the driver if the car is running low on battery and of nearby charging stations. The steering wheel also comes with touch controls.

Mercedes-Benz

The SUV comes with some autonomous features, but not many. Mercedes says the car can automatically adjust the speed and driving dynamics when approaching curves.

The SUV comes with some autonomous features, but not many. Mercedes says the car can automatically adjust the speed and driving dynamics when approaching curves.

Mercedes-Benz

The car is part of Mercedes‘ efforts to ramp up its electric-car offerings. Daimler’s chief development officer, Thomas Weber, said in May that Mercedes-Benz was aiming to add four new electric cars to its model range by 2020.

The car is part of Mercedes' efforts to ramp up its electric-car offerings. Daimler's chief development officer, Thomas Weber, said in May that Mercedes-Benz was aiming to add four new electric cars to its model range by 2020.

Mercedes-Benz

 

http://www.businessinsider.de/mercedes-electric-suv-production-in-2019-photos-2016-9?op=1

A High-Stakes Bet: Turning Google Assistant Into a ‘Star Trek’ Computer

Google’s new assistant will be incorporated in new products like Google Home, an Amazon Echo-like talking computer. CreditJustin Sullivan/Getty Images

Google is one of the most valuable companies in the world, but its future, like that of all tech giants, is clouded by a looming threat. The search company makes virtually all of its money from ads placed on the World Wide Web. But what happens to the cash machine if web search eventually becomes outmoded?

That worry isn’t far-fetched. More of the world’s computing time keeps shifting to smartphones, where apps have supplanted the web. And internet-connected devices that may dominate the next era in tech — smartwatches, home-assistant devices like Amazon’s Echo, or virtual reality machines like Oculus Rift — are likely to be free of the web, and may even lack screens.

But if Google is worried, it isn’t showing it. The company has long been working on a not-so-secret weapon to avert its potential irrelevance. Google has shoveled vast financial and engineering resources into a collection of data mining and artificial intelligence systems, from speech recognition to machine translation to computer vision.

Now Google is melding these advances into a new product, a technology whose ultimate aim is something like the talking computer on “Star Trek.”It is a high-stakes bet: If this new tech fails, it could signal the beginning of the end of Google’s reign over our lives. But if it succeeds, Google could achieve a centrality in human experience unrivaled by any tech product so far.

The company calls its version of this all-powerful machine the Google Assistant. Today, it resembles other digital helpers you’ve likely used — things like Apple’s Siri, Amazon’s Alexa and Microsoft’s Cortana. It currently lives in Google’s new messaging app, Allo, and will also be featured in a few new gadgets the company plans to unveil next week, including a new smartphone and an Amazon Echo-like talking computer called Google Home.

But Google has much grander aims for the Assistant. People at the company say that Sundar Pichai, who took over as Google’s chief executive last year after Google was split into a conglomerate called Alphabet, has bet the company on the new tech. Mr. Pichai declined an interview request for this column, but at Google’s developer conference in May, he called the development of the Assistant “a seminal moment” for the company.

If the Assistant or something like it does not take off, Google’s status as the chief navigator of our digital lives could be superseded by a half-dozen other assistants. You might interact with Alexa in your house, with Siri on your phone, and with Facebook Messenger’s chatbot when you’re out and about. Google’s search engine (not to mention its Android operating system, Chrome, Gmail, Maps and other properties) would remain popular and lucrative, but possibly far less so than they are today.

That’s the threat. But the Assistant also presents Google with a delicious opportunity. The “Star Trek” computer is no metaphor. The company believes that machine learning has advanced to the point that it is now possible to build a predictive, all-knowing, superhelpful and conversational assistant of the sort that Captain Kirk relied on to navigate the stars.

Photo

CreditStuart Goldenberg

The Assistant, in Google’s most far-out vision, would always be around, wherever you are, on whatever device you use, to handle just about any informational task.

Consider this common situation: Today, to book a trip, you usually have to load up several travel sites, consult your calendar and coordinate with your family and your colleagues. If the Assistant works as well as Google hopes, all you might have to do is say, “O.K., Google, I need to go to Hong Kong next week. Take care of it.”

Based on your interactions with it over the years, Google would know your habits, your preferences and your budget. It would know your friends, family and your colleagues. With access to so much data, and with the computational power to interpret all of it, the Assistant most likely could handle the entire task; if it couldn’t, it would simply ask you to fill in the gaps, the way a human assistant might.

Computers have made a lot of everyday tasks far easier to accomplish, yet they still require a sometimes annoying level of human involvement to get the most out of them. The Assistant’s long-term aim is to eliminate all this busywork.

If it succeeds, it would be the ultimate expression of what Larry Page, Google’s co-founder, once described as the perfect search engine: a machine that “understands exactly what you mean and gives you back exactly what you want.”

At this point, a few readers may be recoiling at the potential invasion of autonomy and privacy that such a machine would necessitate.

The Assistant would involve giving ourselves over to machines more fully. We would trust them not just with our information but increasingly with our decisions. Many people are already freaked out by what Google, Facebook and other tech companies know about us. Would we be willing to hand over even more power to computers?

Those are important questions, but they are also well down the road. For now, the more pressing question for the Assistant is: Will it even work?

Photo

Sundar Pichai, Google’s chief executive, calls the development of the assistant “a seminal moment” for the company. CreditJustin Sullivan/Getty Images

Google has technological advantages that suggest it could build a more capable digital assistant than others have accomplished. Many of the innovations that it has built into its search engine — including its knowledge graph database of more than a billion people, places and things, and the 17 years it has spent trying to understand the meaning of web queries — will form the Assistant’s brain.

Google has also been one of the leaders in machine learning, the process that allows computers to discover facts about the world without being explicitly programmed. Machine learning is at the heart of a number of recent advances, including Google Photos’ uncanny capacity to search through your images for arbitrary terms (photos of people hugging, for instance).

“We are in the process of transforming into a machine-learning company,” Jeff Dean, who is in charge of Google Brain, the company’s artificial intelligence project, told me this year. For each problem Google solves this way, it gets better at solving other problems. “It’s a boulder going downhill gathering more momentum as it goes,” Mr. Dean said.

If you use the Assistant today, you’ll see some of these advances. As my colleague Brian X. Chen explained last week, if your friend sends you a picture of his dog on Allo, Google Assistant will not only recognize that it’s a dog, but it will also tell you the breed.

That’s an amazing technological feat. But as Brian pointed out, it’s also pretty useless. Why does your friend care if you know his dog’s a Shih Tzu?

This gets to a deeper difficulty. The search company might have the technical capacity to create the smartest assistant around, but it’s not at all clear that it has the prowess to create the friendliest, most charming or most useful assistant. Google needs to nail not just Assistant’s smarts, but also its personality — a new skill for Google, and one that its past forays into social software (Google Plus, anyone?) don’t speak highly of.

Then there is the mismatch between Google’s ambitions and Assistant’s current reality. Danny Sullivan, the founding editor of Search Engine Land, told me that so far, he hadn’t noticed the Assistant helping him in any major way.

“When I was trying to book a movie, it didn’t really narrow things down for me,” he said. “And there were some times it was wrong. I asked it to show me my upcoming trip, and it didn’t get that.”

Of course, it’s still early. Mr. Sullivan has high hopes for the Assistant. It would be premature to look at the technology today and get discouraged about its future, especially since Google sees this as a multiyear, perhaps even decade-long project. And especially if Google’s future depends on getting this right.

 

Paris motor show 2016 review: A-Z of all the new cars

The Paris motor show is heralded as the world’s biggest motor show, claiming more visitor footfall than any other auto show. No wonder car makers are scrambling to prepare their new car launches in time.

Here we round up all the cars, world debuts and major launches at the Paris motor show. Think of it as a handy one-stop shop for everything about the Mondial de l’Automobile, including a continuously updated list of all the key cars unveiled on the day.

The new 2017 Audi A5 Sportback: a Paris motor show debut

AUDI
A5 Sportback (above): The slinkier new five-door A5 hatchback is unveiled
Q5: Ingolstadt is readying the replacement Q5 Mk2 for a Paris debut

BMW
Concept car: 
Not the new 5-series, but a new crossover concept is coming

CITROEN
C3 (below): The French will launch chic new supermini at the Paris motor show
C3 WRC concept:

CXperience: Plug-in hybrid concept previews Citroen’s upcoming design language

Citroen C3: Paris motor show 2016 world debut

DACIA
2016 range updates: 
Fresh styling, trim and features for Sandero, Sandero Stepway and Logan MCV

FERRARI
GTC4 Lusso T:  New V8-engined version of the car formerly known as the FF
LaFerrari convertible:
 
Maranello’s taken a tin-opener to its fastest supercar

HONDA
Civic (below):  
Next Civic is another French debutant; everything you need to know about Civic Mk10
Civic Type R prototype:  New prototype offers a look at the next-gen hot hatch from Honda

2016 Honda Civic

HYUNDAI
i10: Revamped city car gets new tech and fresh styling
i20 WRC:  Get your first look at the 2017 WRC entry from Hyundai
i30:  Third-gen hatchback family confirmed for the Paris motor show
RN30 concept:  New 375bhp hot-hatch concept targets the Focus RS

INFINITI
Q60:
 UK pricing revealed for sleek new coupe
QX Sport:
 
We’re expecting a refreshed version of the new mid-sized crossover concept from Beijing
VC-T variable compression ratio engines:  CO2-crushing new engine tech at Paris

KIA
Carens:
 Practical MPV gets new styling and tech for 2016
Rio:
 
New Rio supermini to make its public debut at the French car show
Soul: Revamped Kia Soul gets new 201bhp turbo engine

The new Land Rover Discovery: covers come off at the Paris motor show

LAND ROVER
Discovery (above):  The all-new Discovery, now revealed in full, is set to be one of the big draws at Paris

LEXUS
UX crossover concept:
 Latest concept aims to showcase new tech and connectivity features
Kinetic Seat Concept:  The humble car seat, as you’ve never seen it before

MERCEDES-BENZ
AMG GT Roadster:  French guillotine beheads Merc’s glorious sports car in Paris
AMG R50 hypercar (below):  Big Paris shock, as Merc confirms F1-engined hypercar
E-class All-Terrain:  Merc chases the Allroad dollar with E-class in wellies
Electric SUV concept:  We’re expecting a mid-sized e-crossover
GLC 43 4Matic Coupe: Sleeker version of the twin-turbo GLC SUV steps out
Vision Mercedes-Maybach 6:  A closer look at the new super-luxury concept

The new Mercedes-AMG R50 hypercar - F1-engined!

MINI
Clubman JCW:  It’s the most powerful version of Mini’s compact estate to date

MITSUBISHI
GT-PHEV Concept:  
A conceptual look ahead to the next Outlander SUV

NISSAN
Micra:  
Slicker, more Europeanised supermini takes a bow at Paris motor show

PEUGEOT
3008:  
Lumpy crossover enters the mainstream in prettier, more conventional Mk2
5008:  Double-oh Peugeot reborn as a family crossover; seen first in Paris
3008 DKR race car:  New rally-raid special shown ahead of 2017 Dakar

PORSCHE
Panamera (below):  
It’s the brand spanking new, prettier Panam sports saloon Mk2

The new 2016 Porsche Panamera: a Paris motor show launch

RENAULT
Alaskan:  
La Regie unleashes its first pick-up at its home show in Paris
Koleos:  New ‘Initiale Paris’ version of luxury SUV unveiled
Trezor:  Sleek EV coupe packs a 345bhp punch
Zoe:  Renault’s upped the Zoe’s maximum range to 250 miles

SEAT
Ateca X-Perience:  
Rugged new concept showcases potential production car

SKODA
Kodiaq:  
A major launch for Skoda as it unveils its first full-size family crossover

SMART
Fortwo and Forfour Electric Drive:  World premiere of the e-Smart is scheduled for Paris

SSANGYONG
LIV-2 SUV concept:  
This one points to the next-generation Rexton SUV, we reckon

SUZUKI
Ignis:
 European debut for the new baby crossover inspired baby
SX4 S-Cross:  Mild facelift for 2017 model year SUV

TOYOTA
C-HR crossover:  
Final production sight of the new compact SUV, after Geneva design reveal
Gazoo Racing:  New umbrella body for all Toyota’s motorsports will launch in Paris
Prius Plug-in Hybrid:  European debut for Toyota’s plug-n-play Prius
FCV Plus:  Another Euro first for this fuel-cell show car

VAUXHALL
Ampera-e: 
New EV features plenty of punch and long range, but we won’t get it – yet

VOLKSWAGEN
I.D. electric car concept (below):  Volkswagen promises dramatic change with new long-range EV
Volkswagen announces 13th brand:  Mystery Berlin-based brand being worked on

VW I.D. concept

http://www.carmagazine.co.uk/car-news/motor-shows-events/paris/2016/paris-motor-show-2016-review-news-photos-a-z-new-cars/

Amazon has a secret plan to replace FedEx and UPS called ‚Consume the City‘

Amazon has been quietlybeefing up its own shipping logistics network lately.

Amazon CEO Jeff BezosAmazon CEO Jeff Bezos

Although Amazon publicly says it’s meant to complement existing delivery partners like FedEx and UPS, a new report by The Wall Street Journal’s Greg Bensinger and Laura Stevens says Amazon has broader ambitions.

Eventually, Amazon aims to build a full-scale shipping and logistics network that will not only ship products ordered from Amazon, but also will ship products for other retailers and consumers.

In other words, Amazon is looking to compete against delivery services like FedEx and UPS, the report says. Internally, some Amazon execs call the plan „Consume the City.“

Here are other new details around Amazon’s logistics plan, according to the report:

  • Amazon recently hired former Uber VP Tim Collins as VP of global logistics.
  • It recruited dozens of UPS and FedEx executives and hundreds of UPS employees in recent years.
  • Test trials for last-mile deliveries are running in big cities like Los Angeles, Chicago, and Miami.
  • The company also experimented with a program called „I Have Space“ to store Amazon’s inventory in warehouses owned by other companies.

On top of that, InternetRetailer.com recently reported that Amazon has hired Ed Feitzinger, the former CEO of UTi Worldwide, one of the largest supply chain management companies, as VP of global logistics. Add that to the fact that Amazon has now built facilities within 20 miles of 44% of the US population, and Amazon is starting to look like a real threat to existing logistics networks.

According to Baird Equity Research, Amazon is looking at a $400 billion market opportunity by launching all these initiatives. They could also help Amazon reduce some of its shipping costs, which have been increasing every year.

People in the industry are starting to take notice, too, according to Zvi Schreiber, the CEO of Freightos, an online marketplace for international freight.

„After dominating e-commerce and warehousing, Amazon is moving farther up the supply chain and eyeing the logistics sector from all angles, particularly looking to leverage technology, capital, and manpower to make logistics more efficient,“ Schreiber told Business Insider.

„Given their track record of disrupting industries — from retail to warehousing and e-commerce fulfillment to cloud computing — the trillion-dollar freight industry is certainly tracking Amazon nervously.“

http://www.businessinsider.de/amazon-secret-plan-replace-fedex-ups-called-consume-the-city-2016-9

Here’s the electric car Audi is building to take on Tesla

Audi E-tron quattroAudi

Tesla’s Model S and Model X are soon going to have some serious competition.

Last September, Audi revealed its all-electric e-tron quattro concept at the Frankfurt Motor Show. The SUV, which is slated to go into production by 2018, will have three electric motors, a range of 310 miles on a single charge, and quick charging capabilities.

Here’s a look at some of the features in the e-tron quattro that we hope to see in the production version.

Like the e-tron concept, Audi will most likely include piloted driving technology in its upcoming all-electric SUV.

Like the e-tron concept, Audi will most likely include piloted driving technology in its upcoming all-electric SUV.

Audi piloted techYouTube/Audi

The e-tron quattro concept has piloted driving technology, which uses radar sensors, a video camera, ultrasonic sensors, and a laser scanner to collect data about the car’s environment and create a model of the vehicle’s surroundings in real-time.

Audi currently has a lot of this tech in its newer vehicles, so it’s likely we will see a more advanced piloted system in the production version of the e-tron quattro.

 

Cameras could replace side view mirrors.

Cameras could replace side view mirrors.

Audi

The e-tron quattro has curved displays built into the front section of the doors that lets the driver view what is around them. There’s no guarantee we’ll see this in the production version, but automakers are beginning to experiment with new kinds of mirror designs.

For example, GM’s a digital mirror in the Chevy Bolt and the Cadillac CT6that uses cameras to stream whatever is behind you.

It will likely be covered in screens.

It will likely be covered in screens.

Audi

The e-tron quattro concept features two touch displays in the cockpit, one to the driver’s left to control lights and the piloted driving systems and one to the right where media and navigation is controlled.

The center console has two more OLED displays for climate control and infotainment.

With its 95 kWh battery, the e-tron quattro has an impressive range of 310 miles on a single charge.

With its 95 kWh battery, the e-tron quattro has an impressive range of 310 miles on a single charge.

Audi

To put that into perspective, Tesla’s Model X SUV with all wheel drive and a 100kWh battery has a range of 289 miles on a single charge. Audi has already said its range will beat this.

It may be able to fully charge in just 50 minutes.

It may be able to fully charge in just 50 minutes.

Audi

We know the production version will have quick charging capabilities, but we don’t know exactly how fast it will work. However, we’re hoping it’s in line with the e-tron quattro concept’s charge time.

The concept car has a Combined Charging System (CCS), meaning it can be charged with a DC or AC electrical current. It can fully charge with a DC current outputting 150 kW in just about 50 minutes.

 

The e-tron quattro concept is equipped with induction charging technology, so it can be charged wirelessly over a charging plate.

The e-tron quattro concept is equipped with induction charging technology, so it can be charged wirelessly over a charging plate.

Audi

We can’t say if this is a definite feature the production version will have, but our fingers are crossed.

It will have super fast connectivity.

It will have super fast connectivity.

Audi

Audi announced at CES this year that it is the first automaker to support the latest standard for mobile communications: LTE Advanced.

LTE Advanced is the latest enhancement to LTE, meaning that it can deliver larger and faster wireless data payloads than 4G LTE. We can almost certainly expect to see the technology integrated into the upcoming production car.

http://www.businessinsider.de/audis-electric-vs-tesla-2016-9?op=1

Daimler präsentiert futuristisches Trio: Urban e-Truck, Vision Van und Future Bus

Der Mercedes Benz Urban eTruck feiert auf der Nutzfahrzeug-IAA seine Weltpremiere.Der Mercedes Benz Urban eTruck feiert auf der Nutzfahrzeug-IAA seine Weltpremiere.

Der Urban e-Truck, der Vision Van und der Future Bus – Mercedes zieht auf der Nutzfahrzeug-IAA die ganz große Elektroshow ab. Hinter den futuristischen Studien steckt aber mehr. Denn die Daimler AG versteht sich nicht mehr ausschließlich als Hersteller.

Es ist das gleiche Bild wie beim Pkw-Pendant in Frankfurt: Wer in diesen Tagen bei der Nutzfahrzeug-IAA in Hannover den Daimler-Stand besucht, wird auf eine Zeitreise mitgenommen. Denn hier stehen nicht die Laster von morgen, sondern die von übermorgen. Mit einem Aufwand, wie man ihn in dieser Branche so noch nicht erlebt hat, haben die Entwickler der Bus-und-Truck-Sparte aus dem Sternen-Imperium gleich drei visionäre Studien verwirklicht: Vision Van, Urban e-Truck und Future Bus.

Wie weit uns Mercedes mit diesen drei spektakulären Studien, die allesamt auf reinen Elektroantrieb setzen, in die Zukunft blicken lässt, weiß keiner genau. Wolfgang Bernhard, der für die Nutzfahrzeugsparte zuständige Daimler-Vorstand, ist allerdings überzeugt, dass die Zeitenwende bei der Elektro-Mobilität bereits eingesetzt hat und sie sich „viel dynamischer entwickelt, als wir das alle für möglich halten würden“.

Die Marschrichtung ist klar

Über 200 Kilometer soll der 25-Tonnen-Koloss rein elektrisch fahren.
Über 200 Kilometer soll der 25-Tonnen-Koloss rein elektrisch fahren.

Und kühn ergänzt der 56-Jährige, dass Daimler mit der Umsetzung der visionären Ideen „den Transport völlig neu erfindet“. Für Güter und Personen. Auf Autobahnen und in Städten. So sei der Urban e-Truck als erster emissionsfreier schwerer Truck die beste Antwort auf immer rigideren Zufahrtsbeschränkungen in verstopften Großstädten. Der sogenannte Verteilerverkehr im eher innerstädtischen Bereich könne mit ihm flüsterleise und sauber durchgeführt werden. Und mehr noch. Er ist komplett vernetzt, und bietet einschließlich eines intelligenten Reichweiten-Managements quasi ein Rundum-Sorglos-Paket für Transport- und Logistik-Unternehmen aus einer Hand.

Das umfasst eine flexible und effiziente Routenplanung, die Staus und sogar die Wetterlage einbezieht, die Optimierung des Energieverbrauchs, das Ansteuern der Ladestationen bis hin zum kompletten Lademanagement. „Das garantiert einen hoch effizienten Betrieb“, erklärt Bernhard. Und zudem will Daimler künftig auch noch stationäre Stromspeicher anbieten, die schon heute aus Antriebsbatterien von Elektroautos hergestellt werden. „Wir müssen uns von einem reinen Hersteller in einen Dienstleistungsanbieter verwandeln“, gibt der Kopf der Nutzfahrzeug-Division die Marschrichtung für die Zukunft vor.

Auch Langstrecke ist „physikalisch“ möglich

Während die Außenhaut des Urban e-Truck futuristisch anmutet, ist das Cockpit vergleichsweise konventionell gestaltet.
Während die Außenhaut des Urban e-Truck futuristisch anmutet, ist das Cockpit vergleichsweise konventionell gestaltet.

Ehrgeizige Pläne, wobei der Urban e-Truck aber allein schon technisch beeindruckt. Verantwortlich für den leisen Auftritt des 25-Tonnen-Kolosses sind zwei Elektromotoren an der Hinterachse direkt neben den Naben, die für eine Gesamtleistung von 340 PS sorgen und es im Zusammenspiel auf ein Drehmoment von 1000 Newtonmeter bringen. Damit ist volle Durchzugskraft direkt aus dem Stand garantiert. Die drei modularen Batteriepakete mit einer Gesamtleistung von 212 kWh sind immerhin für eine Reichweite von 200 Kilometern gut, was für eine Tagestour im Verteilerverkehr üblicherweise voll ausreicht. Die Ladezeit an einer 100-kW-Säule soll nur knapp über zwei Stunden betragen, allerdings sind solch potente Kraftquellen derzeit noch eine Seltenheit.

Und auch wenn die Lithium-Ionen-Akkus zusammen fast 2,5 Tonnen wiegen, wird der Stadt-Laster mit einer Nutzlast von 12,8 Tonnen, wie sie im Verteilerverkehr gängig sind, fertig. Auch der typische 7,4 Meter lange Kühlkoffer für den Frischedienst-Einsatz von Supermärkten und Einzelhandelsgeschäften mit Lebensmitteln lässt sich hinterm Fahrerhaus verbauen.

Mit seinen Drohnen soll der Vision Van vor allem den Lieferverkehr "auf der letzten Meile" revolutionieren.
Mit seinen Drohnen soll der Vision Van vor allem den Lieferverkehr „auf der letzten Meile“ revolutionieren.

Während Wolfgang Bernhard die Einführung rein elektrischer Antriebe im schweren Truck auf der Langstrecke für „physikalisch unmöglich“ hält, gibt er dem Verteiler-Lkw eine gute Chance. „Der Urban e-Truck würde im Vergleich zu einem Diesel-Lkw heute sicher einen Aufschlag in fünfstelliger Höhe erfordern“, erklärt der Nutzfahrzeug-Chef. Allerdings sei der stromernde 25-Tonner frühestens Anfang des nächsten Jahrzehnts serienreif und bis dahin seien die Batteriepreise allemal günstiger. Hinzu kämen aber auch noch die deutlich geringeren Betriebskosten. Denn erstens liegen die Stromausgaben rund 40 Prozent unter einem vergleichbaren Dieselverbrauch und zweitens besitzt ein E-Antrieb viel weniger Verschleißteile, was die Wartungs- und Instandhaltungskosten maßgeblich reduziert. Auch Ölwechsel fallen ja nicht mehr an.

Ohne Lenkrad, aber mit Drohnenlandeplatz

Mindestens genauso futuristisch von Chefdesigner Gordon Wagener gezeichnet präsentiert sich der Vision Van, der mit einer Cloud-basierten Steuerungssoftware ebenso in ein Gesamtkonzept einer komplett digitalisierten Lieferkette eingebunden werden soll. Das Fahrzeug kommuniziert beispielsweise auch über ein als „Kühlergrill“ gestaltetes Black Panel mit der Umwelt und soll vor allem den Lieferverkehr „auf der letzten Meile“ revolutionieren. So gibt es im Cockpit weder Lenkrad noch Pedalerie, dafür aber auf dem Dach zwei Landeplätze für Drohnen, die bei der Auslieferung den letzten Teil des Zustellungsweges vom Auto zum Kunden überbrücken sollen.

Eher als Meilenstein auf dem Weg zu einem autonom fahrenden Omnibus gilt der Mercedes Future Bus, der auch bereits in der Praxis bewiesen hat, dass mit einem City-Pilot an Bord zumindest teilautomatisiertes Fahren im öffentlichen Nahverkehr technisch bereits möglich ist. Auf der knapp 20 Kilometer langen Strecke vom Flughafen Amsterdam Schiphol bis nach Harlem musste der Fahrer jedenfalls kein einziges Mal Gas oder Bremse betätigen.

Dass Mercedes auf der Nutzfahrzeug-IAA mit den drei Zukunftsstudien aber nicht nur eine Show fern jeglicher Realität abzieht, beweist die Ankündigung, schon 2018 mit zwei voll elektrischen Fahrzeugen auf den Markt zu kommen. So ist ein ausschließlich mit Strom angetriebener Bus ebenso versprochen wie ein Sprinter mit E-Antrieb. Und schon im nächsten Jahr ist die Kleinserie eines Fuso e-Canter geplant. Der Kleinlaster der japanischen Tochter, ein Überbleibsel der einst gescheiterten Fusion mit Mitsubishi, setzt je nach gewünschter Reichweite auf individuelle Batteriesätze mit drei bis sechs Akkupacks à 14 kWh, mit denen die Kunden ihre Bedürfnisse in puncto Reichweite, Preis und Gewicht flexibel anpassen können. Er werde um einen vierstelligen Betrag teurer sein als ein vergleichbarer Diesel, würde in den Betriebkosten aber rund 1000 Euro auf 10.000 Kilometer einsparen und sich so bereits nach drei Jahren amortisieren.

http://www.n-tv.de/auto/Daimler-praesentiert-futuristisches-Trio-article18709651.html

Self-driving cars are here, but that doesn’t mean you can call them ‚driverless‘

Volvo Driverless Car What I imagine I could’ve been doing on my way to college instead of holding a steering wheel for nine hours. (Not actually me) Volvo

I went to college nine hours away from home — easily doable in a day’s drive, but tedious nonetheless.

On one trip through the cornfields of Indiana, I remember turning to my friend wondering why we hadn’t figured out cruise control for steering wheels. I had already been cruising at a steady 70 m.p.h. for hours with my feet on the floor. Why did I have to touch the steering wheel to keep it in the lines too?

Less than six years later, the answer is that I don’t have to touch the steering wheel anymore. Self-driving cars are here, and they’re arriving faster than many predicted.

The pace at which a self-driving car went from myth to reality has caused all sorts of problems, from a talent shortage in the field to a sudden arms race in trying to build the best self-driving car on the market. Uber’s CEO Travis Kalanick called it „existential“ for the company to develop its own driverless car technology.

Yet, there’s still a large distinction — and years of development — between the self-driving cars hitting the streets today and the driverless cars that we dream of in the future. Most „driverless“ cars today still have a driver in the front seat. Teaching a car how to drive itself (even with a driver on hand) is just the important first step.

Dreams of driverless

It’s hard not to be seduced by the images of driverless cars.

Mercedes-Benz‘ concept car shows four seats all turned to face each other. Bentley’s driverless dream comes with a holographic butler — a future staple for the high-end autonomous car. The Rolls-Royce has a two person couch with a giant TV where the driver normally sits.

Bentley Bentley

Even Larry Page is rumored to be working on a flying car so we all finally get one step closer to“The Jetsons“ future we’ve envisioned.

However, what’s not acknowledged is just how hard it is to get cars to that point. When I asked Uber’s Kalanick just what’s holding truly driverless cars back, he laughed because there’s just so much — and a lot of it just that the technology hasn’t even been developed. A self-driving car shouldn’t freak out at a four-way intersection or turn off every time it goes over a bridge.

To get in a self-driving car today, it feels like having cruise control, but for the whole car. The autopilot keeps the car’s speed steady, it stays evenly inside the lines, and maintains the proper following distance. The only way to experience a self-driving car is to either own a Tesla or live in Pittsburgh and magically hail a self-driving Uber.

After taking a ride in Otto’s self-driving truck, I explained the experience to my 92-year-old grandmother as being in a plane: You have a licensed driver who does take off and landing, or in this case, getting onto the interstate, but then once it’s clear, you just set it to autopilot.

While having „self-driving cars“ in the hands in the public is a huge milestone, it’s just the beginning in the path to full autonomy.

Truly driverless cars remain years away — but still closer than you think. Ford, for example, plans to roll out its first fully autonomous carsfor ride-sharing by 2021. Google is aiming for 2020 , and Tesla is planning to make its vehicles part of car-sharing networkonce its cars are fully autonomous.

The impacts of that will be widely felt. Merrill Lynch predicted in a 2015 report that driverless taxis like Ubers will make up 43% of new car sales by 2040. The Boston Consulting Group also wrote in a 2015 report that driverless taxi sales are bound to incline. The BCG predicts that 23% of global new car sales will come from driverless taxis by 2040, which will result in a decline in vehicle ownership in cities.

Before we get to driverless though, we need to perfect self-driving. To do that, that means putting real self-driving cars to the roads in a test. That’s why they are here and happening now. Driverless will come next.

http://www.businessinsider.com/self-driving-vs-driverless-car-difference-explained-2016-9?IR=T