Archiv der Kategorie: Payment

He Emptied an Entire Crypto Exchange Onto a Thumb Drive. Then He Disappeared

Source: https://www.wired.com/story/faruk-ozer-turkey-crypto-fraud/

Faruk Özer just started a 11,196-year prison sentence. Did he almost get away with the biggest heist in Turkey’s history, or was it all just a big misunderstanding?

Faruk Fatih Özer stood in front of a passport control officer at Istanbul Airport, a line of impatient travelers queuing behind him. He pulled his face mask below his chin for the security camera. Surely he was nervous. The 27-year-old had unruly black hair, a boy-band face, and a patchy beard. Normally he overcompensated for his callow features by dressing in a pressed three-piece suit. But this spring day he wore black trainers and a navy-blue sweater hastily pulled over a white polo shirt, as if he had dressed in a dash. A small backpack was slung over his right shoulder. He looked like someone who could have been going on a last-minute day trip—or someone planning to never come back. At 5:57 pm on April 20, 2021, the guard stamped his Turkish passport and Özer shuffled through the crowd to Gate C, a flash drive containing a rumored $2 billion in crypto stashed in his belongings.

After Özer’s plane reached Tirana, Albania, at 9:24 that night, he checked into the Mondial, a popular 4-star business hotel in the capital’s commercial district. A couple of days later, he looked at his social media accounts. A mob was very angry with him: Customers couldn’t access their money on the exchange Thodex, where he was founder and CEO, and people were accusing him of absconding with their funds.

Özer posted a public letter to his company’s website and his social accounts. “I feel compelled to make this statement in order to respond urgently to these allegations,” he wrote. The accusations weren’t true, he said. Thodex—which had nearly half a million investors and $500 million in daily trade volume—was investigating what Özer claimed was a suspected cyberattack that caused “an abnormal fluctuation in the company account.” Assets would be frozen for five days while Thodex resolved the issue. This was terribly bad timing for the big business deal he said he was en route to make: selling the company, or so he had told some employees and his brother and sister before he left. All would be made right. “There will be no victims,” he promised. “I personally declare that I will return to Turkey within a few days and ensure that the facts are revealed in cooperation with judicial authorities and that I will do my best to prevent users from suffering.” Of course, there was this possibility too: He was in the midst of pulling off the biggest heist in Turkey’s history.

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Before dawn the day after Özer posted the letter, police squads fanned out across Istanbul and public prosecutors opened an investigation. Law enforcement arrested 62 people, including Thodex employees at all levels of the company—and Özer’s older brother and sister, Güven and Serap. Interpol issued a red notice, a request for law enforcement worldwide to find and “provisionally arrest” Özer pending his extradition to Turkey. Search teams deployed across Albania, Montenegro, Kosovo, and North Macedonia. There were reported sightings of the dark-haired young man across Tirana, rumors that he had gone to a poultry farm, that an executive from the Albanian football league was sheltering him. Soon, the Albanian police arrested people accused of aiding and abetting him. But no one seemed to know exactly where Özer was.

Özer had vanished at a particularly precarious time in crypto’s annals: In the weeks leading up to his disappearance, so-called rug pulls—when a cryptocurrency exchange or altcoin developer absconds with investors’ funds—had crypto investors around the globe flabbergasted. The CEO of Mirror Trading International, a crypto trading company based in South Africa, defrauded users of more than $1 billion, then skipped town; TurtleDex, an anonymous decentralized finance storage project on Binance, reportedly vanished with $2.4 million; another decentralized finance project, Meerkat, reportedly fleeced investors out of $31 million (of which they paid back 95 percent). Blockchain analysis firm Chainalysis ranked rug pulls as the primary scam of 2021, accounting for 37 percent of all cryptocurrency scam revenue that year, up from 1 percent the year before.

Thodex was at the top of that roster, and nearly every major outlet from Bloomberg to Newsweek published headlines like “Turkish Crypto Exchange Goes Bust as Founder Flees Country” and “Turkish Cryptocurrency Founder Faruk Fatih Özer Seen Fleeing Country With Suspected $2 Billion From Investors.” CoinGeek called it “the biggest scam in the digital asset industry in 2021.” The New York Times’ headline read, “Possible Cryptocurrency Fraud Is Another Blow to Turkey’s Financial Stability.” In Turkey, the country I now call home, people were reeling: For years, crypto had been built up—largely by Özer but by others too—as a way out of economic volatility. Now it seemed like just another way to lose your life savings. But something felt off to me, like the whole story wasn’t being told.

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ILLUSTRATION: PRINCESS HIDIR

Faruk was born in February 1994, the youngest of three. He was inseparable from his brother, Güven, and sister, Serap. They grew up camping, playing video games, and cooking together. Friends always pointed out their shared sense of humor. His parents ran a print and copy shop in the city of Kocaeli, down the street from their house. They were observant Muslims who gave their children meaningful names: “trust” (Güven), “mirage” (Serap), and “the one who distinguishes between right and wrong” (Faruk).

Kocaeli is an industrial port town about 100 kilometers east of Istanbul surrounded by a checkerboard of tobacco and sugar beet fields, petrochemical plants, and paper mills. Roman emperors once lived there, and their crumbling fortress walls still wind through the landscape. After the Ottoman Empire collapsed, Kocaeli became a manufacturing boomtown, and its residents muscled the newly minted Republic of Turkey into the Industrial Revolution.

When Özer was born, Turkey’s economy was in a tailspin. A fragile financial system, irresponsible borrowing, and political corruption had triggered a brief period of triple-digit inflation. The lira’s volatility threatened the savings of its entire population. So many people moved their domestic assets to foreign-currency deposits that, by the end of the year, an astonishing 50 percent of bank deposits in Turkey were in a foreign currency. The year before, that figure was just 1 percent.

That same month Özer was born, a charismatic orator with a sympathetic gaze and push-broom mustache began campaigning through Istanbul’s streets in a paisley kipper tie. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan railed against the secular elite who had led the country to near economic collapse. A devout Muslim, he walked the streets of his home neighborhood, Kasımpaşa, a hardscrabble district where he grew up selling simit, or sesame bread, promising reform. In an upset election, he coasted into the role of mayor of Istanbul.

Around the same time, two Turkish business moguls launched Turkcell, the nation’s first mobile communication system. (This was a year and a half before the same technology was released in the US.) By 2003, Erdoğan was elected prime minister, kicking off a decade of unprecedented growth that foreign observers called Turkey’s “Silent Revolution.” In a turn away from his predecessors, he governed through the lens of a businessman, inaugurating a massive building boom across the country and ultimately wrangling Turkey’s rampant inflation. His pro-business rhetoric boosted the middle class and set Turkey on a path to European Union membership.

Özer also caught the spirit of entrepreneurship at an early age. As a teenager in the mid-aughts, he worked after-school shifts at his parents’ print shop. “Ever since I was a child, I wanted to do my own business, no matter what sector it was,” he said. At the end of his second year in high school, he decided that further study would not lead him to that dream, so he dropped out.

By 2013, Turkey’s gross domestic product had nearly tripled, the lira hovered just above the dollar, and the country was negotiating entry into the EU. BtcTurk, Turkey’s first crypto exchange (and reportedly the world’s fourth), was preparing to launch. Then, in May of that year, a group of activists gathered at Gezi Park in Istanbul to protest plans to redevelop it into a shopping mall with Ottoman-era architecture. They bridled not only at the loss of green space but also at the glorification of Turkey’s Islamist past in a society that called itself secular. Police brutally cracked down on the protesters, sparking a nationwide movement. Within weeks, more than 3 million people had taken part in the demonstrations, their frustration now encompassing the growing authoritarianism of Erdoğan’s government. Thousands were injured, and at least five died. Özer had just turned 19. In the following years, Erdoğan tossed a record number of journalists in jail and censored the internet, and foreign investors recoiled.

Around that time, Ismail H. Polat, an expert in engineering, information tech, and new media, was the first person to cover crypto on his YouTube channel. Now a lecturer at Istanbul’s Kadir Has University, the way he tells it, crypto was about trying to be financially free. In those early days, he says, “it was not the coin, but the spirit.” (After all, bitcoin was worth only $77 at the time.) For young people who felt that Erdoğan had pulled the rug out from under them, whether they knew it explicitly or not, crypto was a new way to protest.

At the same time, Özer’s generation was watching as tech startups were taking off around the world. Facebook had bought Instagram for $1 billion, and that spurred entrepreneurs to begin churning out apps. A lot of them were gaming-focused; Candy Crush brought in $1.5 billion in revenue in 2013. The Özers took note.

By then, Turkcell had become one of the world’s largest companies. Turkey’s mobile infrastructure and smartphone adoption rate became one of the fastest growing in the world. Polat credits this as the foundation for what came next: The dream began to shift from mere employment to entrepreneurship. Güven cofounded a company called Inline Yazılım; Faruk started one called Inline Teknoloji a few years later and another called Game Bridge after that. The brothers figured out how to crank out chintzy apps—cut-and-paste washboard abs for Instagram photos (pre-vanity-filters era) and addictive gambling games. “I started to sell almost every product that I thought could make a profit on the internet,” he told me. “This is how I took my first step into business life.”

By 2017, 14 years into Erdoğan’s rule, Turkey’s economy had come full circle. Erdoğan’s unorthodox economic policies—repeatedly cutting interest rates—were supposed to raise investment and make Turkey less dependent on foreign powers. Instead they led the country into an economic crisis; the value of the lira hit the skids, and after a failed coup attempt in 2016 people figured it would only get worse. Just as they had 23 years earlier, citizens began searching for places to shelter their money. Voilà, 2017 was also the first year bitcoin’s value shot sky high, from $9,000 to $20,000. Global trade volume also skyrocketed from $99 million to $16 billion.

Being early investors in tech wasn’t something that had historically been available to the average person in Turkey. The instant millionaires and billionaires and unicorns pretty much lived elsewhere. Now, Faruk Özer saw a possibility. People in Turkey could shelter their money in what was clearly going to be the next big tech boom. But the biggest opportunity wasn’t in trading coins—it was in running a cryptocurrency exchange. Exchanges collect people’s money and, for a commission, invest it; that gives people who don’t have the time or skills to invest directly into the blockchain a pathway to crypto. Users who go through an exchange don’t even have their own digital wallets; their money is stored until they withdraw it. (Hence the industry warning: “Not your wallet, not your coins.”)

“During conversations with friends, we realized the deficiencies in the cryptocurrency exchange sector in Turkey and that the market was open to new players,” Özer said. There were no regulations on running a cryptocurrency exchange; Özer could open one easier than he could open a simit stand. He could become rich. Everybody might become rich. So at the age of 23, Özer founded Thodex with 40,000 lira—around $11,100 at the time—of his own money. Soon, Serap began working for Özer as a company accountant; Güven too seemed to be around a lot, but his ties were unofficial.

Using a playbook from Silicon Valley, Özer began spreading the gospel of crypto around Turkey. By this time, there were a few other notable exchanges, but Özer gave crypto a face and a ubiquitous presence. He put up ads on billboards and at bus stations; he installed Turkey’s first bitcoin ATM in a luxury mall in Istanbul’s posh Nişantaşı neighborhood, more as a stunt than anything. In a TV interview, he explained, “People realized that it is a technology that they can turn into cash at any time. One of the most important helping tools in the spread of this perception was undoubtedly bitcoin ATMs.” He aired television commercials pushing Thodex, featuring a dozen Turkish celebrities, including actress Pınar Deniz and pop star Simge. That caught the attention of Turkey’s middle and upper classes.

Soon, Özer was ingratiated into the upper echelons of Turkish society. He was invited to sit on the board of organizations such as Blockchain Turkey, a respected crypto nonprofit in Istanbul, alongside the country’s biggest bankers. He was attending private meetings with Turkey’s highest ministers. He appeared regularly on news channels and in tech blogs. At one point, Thodex was hacked for many millions of lira (supposedly $14 million US), allegedly from an IP address in China. Özer says he compensated the customers’ losses out of his own pocket and reported the theft to the Istanbul Public Prosecutor’s cybercrime unit. Experts from regulating agencies audited Thodex’s financial infrastructure—and Özer claimed they gave the company a clean bill of health. (Though that couldn’t be confirmed.)

Istanbul began to feel like Las Vegas. Dazzling billboards and banners hawking crypto coins were everywhere. Backgammon cafés, where old men have been drinking tea and talking politics for centuries, buzzed with crypto gossip. Signs appeared on barber shops and storefronts advising customers that they could pay with bitcoin. Bitcoin booths opened in the Grand Bazaar, next to the gold-trading stalls where people once sheltered their money when empires collapsed. By 2020, Turkey had more people using cryptocurrency than almost anywhere else in the world. Istanbul had concluded a sweeping economic metamorphosis, from a historic trading post to an information technology leader to one of the top mobile gaming centers on the planet. And finally to a cryptocurrency capital. Crypto “transformed into a national mindset” among young people, Polat says.

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ILLUSTRATION: PRINCESS HIDIR

He added, though: “Money is an agreement between a government and its society in terms of national unity. But on the other side of the medallion, if everyone leaves the fiat—if everyone leaves the social agreement of their nation—it could derail the world.”

In 2020, Thodex moved into a sprawling high-rise in Kadıköy, a chockablock district on the Asian side of Istanbul. It had a big open floor plan and views of the Marmara Sea. Thodex was now the fastest-growing and second-largest cryptocurrency exchange in Turkey. In the office, Özer had a reputation for keeping to himself. His 85 employees, most of whom applied for their jobs at Thodex through ads on platforms like LinkedIn, say they were paid on time, received bonuses, got their time-off requests approved quickly, and enjoyed the Thodex-branded coffee mugs and other swag. But the young man in charge clearly had some bluster. One former employee told me Özer’s avatar on the in-house messaging system was an image of Leonardo DiCaprio’s character from The Wolf of Wall Street.

Like any CEO, Özer wanted to make it as easy as possible for customers to spend money on his products. He started a customer service center called Thodex Academy that offered an introductory guide to cryptocurrencies for new investors. He offered scandalously cheap commission rates, so low that industry experts were stumped as to how Thodex could be making a profit. The company also allowed people to buy crypto via credit cards; at times that was money an investor didn’t really have, but the hope was that a coin’s value would go up faster than the interest accrued on the card. (The US Securities and Exchange Commission was alerting the public to avoid crypto exchanges promoting the practice.)

Özer was also intent on taking Thodex global. In 2020, the company secured a money services business license from the US Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network. Özer endlessly paraded it around like a trophy, touting it in news interviews, on Thodex’s website, and on social media. Like the audit a few years earlier, the license seemed to prove that Thodex was legit—that it had passed all the record-keeping and anti-money-laundering checks, that it was a company people could trust.

By March 2021, 16 percent of people in Turkey were using crypto, putting the nation in the top five for crypto use, along with Nigeria, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Peru—all countries with struggling economies.

The value of the lira, meanwhile, was at a historic low—as was Erdoğan’s approval rating. In April, Turkey’s Central Bank announced a ban on the use of crypto for purchases or services, set to go into effect later that month. This sent a shock wave across the global crypto market. (Bitcoin’s value dropped 4.6 percent.) The central bank issued a statement saying bitcoin could “cause non-recoverable losses.” It also said bitcoin’s use could undermine confidence in the lira. The bank and Erdoğan promised more regulations to follow. Özer’s entire empire was under threat.

Özer had, for a few months, been running a PR blitz for Thodex’s fourth birthday, giving away iPhones, PlayStations, a Porsche Panamera, and Dogecoins. It worked—sort of. Thodex’s trade volume reportedly climbed to $538 million. At the same time, the price of bitcoin soared again, reaching a high of $63,000. If there ever was a ripe moment to flee with Thodex’s cold wallet, this was it. Days later, Özer stood at the Istanbul Airport, a ticket to Tirana in his hands.

As “wanted” fliers with Özer’s picture went up on telephone poles across Albania, Erdoğan held a Q&A with college students from all over the country and talked about his “war” with crypto. The outlook for Thodex’s 400,000 customers was grim. So many Thodex investors had put all of their money into Özer’s company—and all of their spouses’, parents’, in-laws’, and kids’ money too. They had taken out loans and lines of credit to buy more crypto.

One investor named Mahmut—$100,000 lost—had been using Thodex for three years and was in the final stages of buying a house and car for his family. (Like so many victims, he didn’t want to use his full name, because of a heavy burden of shame.) Mahmut had tried to withdraw his money—a mixture of savings and loans—in the days before the collapse, but it never came through. He attempted suicide three times. When his 2-year-old was diagnosed with autism, Mahmut took a job as a security guard at a storage facility to help pay for services for his son. At least two other investors were reported to have died by suicide.

Then there were friends of the family; Güven and Serap had also recruited customers. One was a former colleague of Güven’s; they had worked together through an advertising agency. Güven personally made a Thodex account for this colleague. Over time the two became friends, calling each other on birthdays. About Güven, the friend told me, “He’s a nice person who likes to joke around.”

But when he saw the maintenance notice on Thodex’s website, he called Güven to ask about withdrawing his money. “His phone was off, and would never turn on again after that,” he said. “I believed in it. It had public credibility. It had a license. It had an office. Tax registration number. Employees. It checked out as a reputable company,” he said. He lost $7,900—but, worse than that, he said, “I trusted it so much that I recommended Thodex to many friends, and they all lost their money too.”

Victims formed support groups online. People were devastated about losing their life savings, but they were also plagued by the mystery of what happened to Özer; they talked about Özer haunting them in recurring dreams. People questioned how Özer—this self-made 27-year-old who didn’t quite fit the profile of a tech bro or a transnational cybercriminal—could engineer the biggest theft Turkey had ever seen all by himself.

Two months after the collapse, Sedat Peker, an infamous, self-exiled mafia boss turned YouTuber, inflamed the situation with a series of cryptic posts on his YouTube channel and Twitter, accusing Turkey’s interior minister of collusion and profiteering. (The minister denied it, but photos of Özer and him at a 2019 meeting fueled a heap of conspiracy theories.) At one point before he disappeared, Özer apparently stayed in pandemic lockdown with the son of a member of Turkey’s parliament as they prepared to launch a new digital wallet service called Hoppara. A lawyer representing some victims speculated on a phone call with me that Thodex was actually a money laundering scheme, that Özer was just a puppet, and some other power was pulling the strings. Others I spoke with echoed this theory, and more than a few people strongly cautioned me to stop my reporting. Soon I started receiving anonymous threats.

Some vigilante programmers tried to trace the blockchain to see if they could find out if this was the work of one individual, a criminal network, or a vulnerable system. (As the joke about people who steal money and blame it on hackers goes, “I lost my bitcoin in a boating accident.”) They came up short. While others looked for the money, I decided to search for Özer. He reminded me of the young founders I used to interview in San Francisco when I was covering tech in 2013—ambitious, naive, and at times loose with ethics. Also, what aspiring fugitive would say where they were absconding to and then post letters from the road? So I booked a ticket for Tirana, the last place Özer was seen.

Two days later my apartment in Istanbul was ransacked in a way that seemed like a stern message. The wood on my front door was split open by force, and the contents of every drawer and cabinet were tossed around. The lock to a safe was snipped open, its contents—expensive camera equipment and cash—remained untaken. Even a laptop on the entry table appeared untouched. I canceled the trip.

Nearly one year after he disappeared, there was no sign of Özer or the money. Rumors flew that he was no longer in Albania. He could be in a hotel in Montenegro, a yacht off Kosovo, or a tropical hideaway in Thailand, people said; or he could be locked in a Tirana basement. People told me they thought he was dead, resting in a shallow grave.

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ILLUSTRATION: PRINCESS HIDIR

Güven and Serap idled in prison, awaiting their brother’s capture so that their trial could begin. In March 2022, Istanbul’s public prosecutor and Turkey’s Financial Crimes Board released the findings of their investigation. They painted Özer as a rapacious mountebank who used star-powered pitchmen to dupe people into funneling their savings into his criminal organization. The report asserted that, in 2017, Özer founded Thodex with the intention of operating it as a crime ring for money laundering and that every employee was a willing part of it—from the top executives down to the call-center workers who were placating customers and the social media managers who lured victims with promotions and sweepstakes.

The report traced scads of transactions through a shadowy web of financial accounts all allegedly under Özer’s control. It said that about $8 million in Thodex-held assets had been cashed out in gold bricks in Malta a few weeks before Özer’s disappearance. Özer might have escaped, but his employees and family were facing the possibility of spending many lifetimes in prison.

Just as hope of Özer’s resurfacing dwindled, the drama took a new twist: Sevgi Erarslan, a lawyer whom Özer’s father had hired initially to pay the victims back, then to represent his son in absentia, introduced herself to Twitter via a shocking tweet: She said she would refund any victims of Thodex if they legally withdrew their complaint against her client.

A wave of questions followed—where was this money coming from, and was Özer not just alive but in contact with Erarslan while wanted by Interpol? I sent her an email asking if I could speak with Özer. To my surprise, she called me immediately, saying that Özer was willing to be in touch. We began an occasional correspondence, though I often wondered if he really was the person answering my questions, if he was even really alive.

The trial went forward under a swirl of confusion and skepticism—about Özer’s whereabouts, about the large payments now being sent to victims from undisclosed sources, and about Erarslan’s legitimacy as his official lawyer. Of the 62 people who had been initially arrested, 21 were charged. On an overcast July morning, officers escorted those defendants into Istanbul’s beige brutalist courthouse, just a short walk from the Thodex headquarters where all the people on trial had once worked.

Güven wore a dark olive blazer, and his mustache was trimmed into a neat chevron. Serap sat with her back turned to him, cloaked in a trench coat pulled over a midnight black abaya. Özer’s lawyer, Erarslan, wore Turkey’s satin lawyer cloak and carried a Louis Vuitton purse. The sound of dozens of handcuffs being unhitched echoed through the cavernous room.

When Güven’s name was called, he stood, flanked by two crew-cut court officers sporting the dark irony of his name emblazoned on their vests (“Güvenlik” means “security”). He told the court that he had no official ties to Thodex. “I only come to the office for tea with my siblings,” he said. He explained how Thodex subcontracted his company for advertising services, and added: “My brother asked me to give him my personal account that I wasn’t using, so I let him use it.” Saying that his brother told him he was going to Albania to try to sell the company, he corroborated Faruk’s claim.

Without looking at her brother, Serap rose and explained that she was only an accountant; her job was to forward documents to an accounting firm. Like Güven, she had given Faruk her personal crypto exchange and bank account information at his request. “I didn’t think he was going to use it,” Serap said. “I can’t say that my brother opened those fake accounts in my name. Identity theft is common; it could have been anyone.” The head judge twirled her pen as Serap spoke, her voice sputtering and cracking. “I have been suffering from both physiological and psychological problems. I am so worn out physically.” When she began losing her breath and stumbling over her sentences, the judge excused her from the stand.

Özer’s siblings and former employees told the court about Özer’s request for access to scores of other accounts where he could personally initiate trades. To the prosecutors—and probably plenty of other people listening—this looked a lot like evidence of money laundering.

When the presiding judge called Özer’s name, Erarslan stood to testify on his behalf, waving a handwritten power of attorney, claiming to be able to represent the missing CEO. The judge shut her down, saying that the document was invalid.

One of the victims’ lawyers stood up and shouted that Erarslan should be kicked out of the courtroom. Erarslan shouted back. The room erupted into a circus. Judges and lawyers, victims and defendants—all volleyed slurs and accusations at one another. One of the defendants’ lawyers yelled at the judge: “You need to know how crypto works. To have a fair trial you have to understand how crypto works.”

Late one August night in 2022, a few days before the defendants back in Istanbul were to receive their verdicts, it became clear that Özer was very much alive. The Albanian police had been tailing a BMW X5 that they suspected was Özer’s and traced the car to an elegant two-story art-deco villa in the hills of Vlorë, a ritzy tourist town on what’s billed as the Albanian Riviera.

Just outside the driveway, they pulled over and waited. At 2:30 am, two people left the house and got into the BMW and started to pull out of the driveway. The cops stopped it, arrested two young men, and a police squad in bulletproof vests and balaclavas stormed the villa. In video footage taken of the raid, Özer, shirtless and wearing red shorts, looks shocked. He stumbles around the room. On a wall behind him, liquor bottles line the shelves. Three women were in the villa too. An officer grabbed Özer, and the young CEO, now wearing a white polo shirt, was handcuffed, escorted down a short flight of stairs, shuttled into an unmarked white van, and driven into the night.

At the police station in Tirana, Özer told the cops that he had been “hiding in the streets of poor neighborhoods.” He added that he got around by bus. “Since I grew up in a poor neighborhood in Turkey, I know how to deal with poor people. I looked for a house to rent by asking people on the streets.” He also said that he had been living off of $10,000 in cash he had brought into the country and money that was occasionally being wired to him—plus, some crypto trading. He confessed that he planned on eventually escaping to Greece.

For nearly a year, Özer sat in an Albanian prison, appealing his extradition back to Turkey. “We are trying to explain to the court that if I am extradited, I do not have a chance to get a fair trial,” he wrote to me. He called the trial “tragicomic.” His appeal was unsuccessful. In June 2023 he arrived at Istanbul Superior Court. His head was shaved; he still had the scruffy beard. The once buoyant tech founder was now staring down a prison sentence that could carry an astonishing 43,000 years.

When he finally stood before the court, judges allowed Özer to tell his story. Leaping at the chance, he powered up a presentation full of images and graphics, something not dissimilar to a pitch deck. Then he started to read from a 60-page soliloquy, his defense attorney clicking through slides at his instruction.

“I did not defraud anyone, I did not smuggle money abroad, I did not establish or manage a criminal organization,” he said with both frustration and sincerity in his voice. “I started a company.” He recognized people got hurt. Then he began trying to make a case that prosecutors (and the media) had simply, mistakenly, criminalized a business failure.

He mentioned a litany of those supposed problems: getting hacked, an “atomic bomb” of Dogecoin panic buying and selling that drained Thodex’s funds after the central bank announced its drastic curtailing of crypto. “The day I bought my ticket to go to Albania, most of the Dogecoin withdrawal requests could no longer be met,” he said. In his retelling, Özer arrived at the conclusion that the company itself was worth more than the funds in its wallet, so he saw only one way out: selling it. He started, he said, shopping it around in Istanbul, Italy, and the Balkans. He eventually set up meetings with several potential buyers in Albania. He didn’t give their names. Özer showed the courtroom a news clip with the widely circulated headline that he had fled with $2 billion and defrauded 400,000 people. “As soon as this news started to appear, both investors were off the table … I had no other chance to cover the losses of the stolen cryptocurrencies.” He pointed out that the indictment estimated the damages were closer to $43 million and the number of official claimants against him totaled 2,027 people.

Then his testimony took a Shakespearean turn. “This was also done with the aim of killing me or having me killed,” he said without flinching. “To announce to the world that a 27-year-old man with $2 billion in his pocket is alone in a country with high crime rates like Albania.” That, coupled with a red notice from Interpol on his back, and his face on wanted posters around Albania, made him fear for his life. So, he said, he bought a tent and took a taxi to the southern Albanian coastline. He had hoped to ride out the nightmare camping alone. “I needed time for the truth to emerge,” he told the room.

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ILLUSTRATION: PRINCESS HIDIR

He told the court that he grew his beard down to his clavicle, shaved his head. He said that when he learned about the prosecutor’s indictment—that his brother and sister were charged with fraud, that they would stand trial in a month, and that without Özer they would most likely take the blame for Thodex’s fall and spend the rest of their lives in prison—he had a wild idea: If every claimant were paid back, did a crime ever really happen? He did, in fact, have the Thodex cold wallet on him, he told the judges, though he claims to not remember how much was in it. He asked Erarslan to help him pay back the roughly 2,000 plaintiffs who had lost their money.

And they did, in part. In total, while on the run, he paid approximately 185 million lira ($10 million at the time) to more than 1,000 claimants. As Özer tells it, when the cold wallet was empty, he threw it into the Ionian Sea.

When he addressed his use of other people’s accounts to trade crypto—an action at the center of the case—he started to sound defiant and a little condescending: “Startup founders take all responsibilities, as the nature of startups requires,” he said. He underscored that they had no authority in the company and no access to these accounts. “There is no lawlessness or irregularity. Moreover, I am neither the first nor the last nor the only person to arbitrage the cryptocurrency market.”

Near the end of his address, Özer’s frustrations seemed to turn to bitterness and hubris. He faced the judges and said it was “absurd to think that the IQ level of the person who made such a stupid escape plan” was the same as that of a criminal mastermind allegedly capable of deceiving Turkish financial regulators for four years. “I am smart enough to lead any institution on earth,” Özer said. Then he had Erarslan pull up an image of a cartoon mocking the court. Visibly annoyed, the chief judge ordered him to remove it.

The verdict came quietly on a balmy Thursday in September 2023 to an almost empty courtroom. Özer stood and solemnly read the lyrics from a Turkish folk song, “The End of the Road Is Visible.”

The chief judge handed Güven, Serap, and Özer the same sentence: 11,196 years in prison—for establishing and managing a criminal organization and laundering assets. Most of the other defendants were released. It was the longest sentence in Turkey’s history, handed out the month before the Republic’s centennial.

Faruk Fatih Özer became a poster child of crypto crimes, but he also became an accidental representation of a particular economic era—and the lengths people will go through to flee it. To the Turkish regime, he was not so much an opponent as an unfortunate product of flawed economic policies. In that light, the draconian sentence is punishment not only for a crime but also for shining a spotlight on decades of embarrassing failures, ones that were made clear to the entire country the day that Özer disappeared.

So perhaps it’s no surprise that Turkey remains a haven for cryptocurrencies. In the year after Thodex went bust, inflation in the country hit a 24-year high of 85.5 percent. Prices for goods nearly doubled—and so did the percentage of Turks who owned bitcoin, ether, and other currencies. In terms of trade volume, the country ranks fourth globally, behind the US, the UK, and India. After decades of watching their currency devalue, their businesses and nest eggs get scrambled, the Turkish people aren’t going to pass up the dream so easily. Earlier this year, the country’s finance minister said the government was working to finalize new regulations on crypto, “to make this field safer and to eliminate possible risks.” So although Özer picked a fight with an authoritarian regime and lost—whether because he believed too fully in the gospel of decentralization, because he was a naive kid, because he was a cynical hustler, or some combination of all three—the flames of economic revolution that he helped fan aren’t going out anytime soon.

Source: https://www.wired.com/story/faruk-ozer-turkey-crypto-fraud/

Bitcoin is soaring due to China and Brexit

Bitcoin is on a tear.

The price of bitcoin has jumped 42 percent since the beginning of June. It hasn’t been this high since early 2014. It’s moved from a total market capitalization of US$8.3 billion, to nearly US$12 billion. It’s unheard of for a currency – digital or otherwise – to skyrocket this quickly.

Bitcoin Price Indextruewealthpublishing.asia

China has played a big part in this rally. As The Wall Street Journalrecently reported, two Chinese exchanges, Huobi and OKCoin, now collectively account for 92 percent of global trading in bitcoin.

In February, we explained that bitcoin is “cryptocurreny,” or a form of digital money. It’s created and stored electronically through a blockchain database.

Like dollars or yen, you can use bitcoin to buy goods and services. But, unlike paper currencies, which governments can create and print at will, no single entity controls the bitcoin network. Its mathematical rules limit the maximum number of bitcoin units to 21 million.

A network of “miners” digitally secures bitcoin transactions. When a miner completes the complex process of mining a block, he’s paid a fee – in bitcoin.

Every time 210,000 bitcoin blocks are mined, the value of mining new bitcoins is cut in half. There’s only been one “halving” since bitcoin was created eight years ago. It happened in November 2012.

Miners expect the next halving to happen in July. This is one explanation for the recent price surge. Some investors see the imminent halving – which will cut the mining fee from 25 to 12.5 bitcoins – as a reduction in supply. That’s why they’re bullish on bitcoin.

Another explanation is that blockchain, the technology at the heart of bitcoin, is gaining traction in a growing number of commercial applications, stoking investor interest.

Also, concerns over “Brexit” are adding to bitcoin demand. Some investors are worried about the financial fallout if the U.K. leaves the European Union. So they’re turning to bitcoin as a safe haven asset – treating it like a digital alternative to gold.

Yuan, china currencyReuters/StringerDamaged 100 yuan banknotes are seen on a table at a branch of China Bank in Foshan, Guangdong province, June 5, 2013. A woman brought about 400,000 yuan ($65,200), which she had kept at home, to the bank for replacement after most of the notes were bitten by white ants. Her notes were exchanged for new ones but for 60,000 yuan ($9,780) which the bank assessed and declared to be unchangeable. Picture taken June 5, 2013.

That said, the yuan is a much bigger player in this bitcoin rally.
China’s currency has been weak in recent months. It’s down 6.1 percent against the dollar since August.

Investors in China are selling yuan-denominated assets in favour of other currencies, particularly the U.S. dollar. In 2015, Chinese citizens and corporations moved an estimated US$1 trillion in capital out of China. The capital flight has slowed this year. But renewed weakness in the yuan may reaccelerate it.

China’s government wants this to stop. This is part of the reason why it prohibits individual citizens from moving more than US$50,000 per year out of the country. Even so, Chinese citizens have a variety of ways to bypass these capital controls – including bitcoin.

Bitcoin is gaining popularity as a method to quietly and anonymously move money out of China. Basically, a Chinese investor can deposit yuan in a bitcoin account and exchange the bitcoin overseas for some other currency. Fees range from one to two percent.

The price of bitcoin is volatile. So there’s a risk it might change while the transaction is being processed, causing the investor to lose money. Otherwise, it’s a relatively simple way to skirt the rules.

Still, the main reason for bitcoin’s price surge is even simpler: Good old-fashioned speculation.

In recent months, speculation driven by Chinese money has resulted in short-lived bubbles in assets as diverse as iron ore, steel rebar, cotton, and eggs – as well as in bitcoin.

All of these Chinese-driven speculations have the same basic lifeline. Whatever the explanation – lack of alternative investments, a deep-rooted gambling culture, investing naiveté, easy-money loans – each of these market booms played out the same way. Prices shot up in a speculative frenzy, and crashed once the mania faded.

Bitcoin shows all the signs of another Chinese-driven financial bubble.
That’s not to say the price of bitcoin won’t go higher. Bitcoin’s 2013 price surge, as shown above, is the stuff of legend. At the start of 2013, you could purchase a single bitcoin for around US$12. On November 29, you could sell that same single bitcoin for US$1,100.

That’s more than a 9,000 percent gain.

If the yuan starts to freefall, it’s certainly plausible that bitcoin could blast as high as it did in 2013, which would be about a 50 percent gain from current levels.

Keep in mind that China’s economy dwarfs the bitcoin market. Chinese financial deposits total over US$22 trillion. The country experienced capital outflows of US$45 billion in April alone, according to RBS (Royal Bank of Scotland). And by recent standards that’s considered moderate.

If the yuan starts a correction in earnest, and just a portion of the fleeing capital flows into bitcoin, it’s anyone’s guess how high the price of bitcoin might fly.

Nevertheless, buyer beware. When this bubble pops (as they all do), many speculators will wish they had never heard of bitcoin.

http://truewealthpublishing.asia/this-is-why-chinas-investors-are-crazy-about-bitcoin/

Number26 Is A Bank Designed For The 21st Century

Source: http://techcrunch.com/2014/10/20/number26-is-a-bank-designed-for-the-21st-century/

 

Why does it still take two days in Europe for a card transaction to show up in your bank statement? Meet Number26, the Simple of Europe — a fintech startup that promises to fix all the oddities of the European bank system. In other words, Number26 is a bank that doesn’t suck. The startup is launching today in private beta on stage at TechCrunch Disrupt London.

“We are providing Europe’s most modern current account, bank account,” co-founder and CEO Valentin Stalf told me in a phone interview before Disrupt. “Attached to it comes a MasterCard.”

As a reminder, commercial banks in Europe suck. In the U.S., you can show up and open an account in five minutes. In Europe, you need to make an appointment with a bank’s local branch, bring documents and fill a lot of forms. You can also sign up online, but you’ll have to go to the post office to send documents.

When you sign up for a Number26 account, the process is much easier than any other bank — you don’t have to physically send anything as the entire process takes place on the company’s website. The company told me that you can sign up in five minutes.

At the very end of the process, Number26 starts a video call to verify your identity. You simply show your passport to the webcam and answer a couple of questions. A call is much less painful than having to go to your local post office to send copies of your passport.

Every time you use your card, you can open the app a few seconds later to see the transaction right here on your statement

After that, you will receive a debit card that works in all MasterCard ATMs and shops. So far, Number26 doesn’t seem very different from traditional online banks in Europe.

But this is when it gets interesting. Number26 focuses a lot of its attention on the user experience of the mobile app. In addition to being a beautiful app, there are a few interesting features that make the app stand out of the crowd.

First, transactions show up in real time. Every time you use your card, you can open the app a few seconds later to see the transaction right on your statement.

“When you look at a MasterCard transaction, all of these transactions have an online authentication,” Stalf said. “The terminal contacts the MasterCard cloud and the cloud network tells that this card number is linked to this processing company. We see what’s happening with the processing company in real time, because this transaction needs to be authorized.”

Other banks could technically do the same and display transactions in real time. But it’s more difficult for them to implement these features due to their existing infrastructure.

You can also open the app and block your card with a simple button. But if you find your card a few minutes later, you can simply unblock it. You don’t need to wait and receive a new card.

If you lend your card to a friend that you don’t really trust, you can also block ATM transactions for let’s say an hour. Whenever you get your card back, you can unblock ATM transactions in the app. Everything works in real time.

Finally, Number26 added a few financial tools in its mobile app. For example, you will see how much money you spend at restaurants or clothing stores. It’s very reminiscent of Mint, but Mint is only available in the U.S. and Canada.

And then, there are all the reasons why you wouldn’t trust a startup to manage your money. Once again, it works a lot like Simple.

“Because we need a banking license, in the background, we have a banking partner,” Stalf said. “The money sits in this bank. Regulators require us to do that. And on the other end, because it’s a German banking license, all the amounts are insured until something like 6 million euros.

While the startup is based in Berlin, a German banking license lets you operate in other European markets. So far, the company accepts clients in Germany, Austria and Switzerland. But it will be very easy to scale to more European countries in the future.

For the end user, there is no card fee for EUR payments, and no service fee for your account. Number26 takes a cut of every MasterCard transaction. Its partner bank will also invest the money sitting in the bank accounts. All of this is transparent for the end user.

In the future, the startup will add new features to make the product more compelling. For instance, Number26 plans to add overdraft and savings options. It is also looking into building a corporate solution as well.

You can also expect innovative futures that you won’t find in your existing banking app. For example, the company wants to use your smartphone’s geolocation to compare it with the location of your card transactions. This way, Number26 can detect suspicious activity and ask you to accept or block a transaction.

In the long run, the company wants to integrate other fintech startups directly into your Number26 account. “We could integrate TransferWise for international transfers for example,” Stalf said. “The idea is to be the connector for finance startups.”

The team of 17 has raised $2.6 million so far (€2 million) from Earlybird Venture Capital, Redalpine Venture Partners, Axel Springer Plug and Play Accelerator. It will be hard to convince conservative customers and compete with traditional banks and their advertising money, but Number26 definitely has a chance when it comes to creating the best banking experience in Europe.

Q&A

Judges: Niko Bonatsos (General Catalyst), Jon Bradford (Techstars), Bindi Karia (Silicon Valley Bank), Brenden Mulligan (Cluster).

Question: Your app is gorgeous. There has to be a major pain point that you are solving to make people switch. How did you find that real time data was a pain point?
Answer:

Question: The relationship with the regulator is complicated. How do you do it?
Answer: We have a banking partner in Germany. We’re doing much more than using their technology. And we can do video conference calls to verify customers all over Europe.

Question: What’s the plan for making money?
Answer: We have two short term revenue streams. But we have long term plans as well, becoming a fintech hub.

Apples Pay Day

Apple’s New Mobile Wallet Lets You Pay With a Tap of Your iPhone, Wired Online, 9.9.2014

applepayday

„Apple’s new payment system Apple Pay lets people pay merchants using their iPhones. All of the major credit cards—American Express, MasterCard, and Visa—are on board, and will be accepted by more than 220,000 merchants at launch.

Using Apple Pay couldn’t be easier—simply tap your iPhone at a payment terminal. Apple CEO Tim Cook conceded that Apple isn’t the first to attempt replacing the card-based payment system we’ve known for decades, but so far no one’s had much luck.

“People have dreamed of replacing these for years,” Cook said. “But most have been a disappointment or not yet worked well enough for mainstream adoption.”

Instead of a card, Apple Pay uses the iPhone 6, the larger iPhone 6 Plus and the Apple Watch announced today. Want to make a payment? Tap your phone at a retailer’s payment terminal. The phone uses a combination of NFC, Touch ID, and a secure chip called the Secure Element to complete the payment. To add a card, simply snap a pic of it using the iPhone’s camera. After verifying with your bank, the card is added to Passbook. Apple doesn’t store the number, or transfer it to the merchant during a transaction. Instead, it has a device number that’s relayed during payments along with a dynamic security code. If you lose your iPhone, you can use Find My iPhone to suspend payments for that device without having to cancel your credit card.

Apple says that the banks included in Apple Pay make up 83 percent of all credit card purchases in the U.S., and it will be accepted by more than 220,000 retailers. Apple specifically called out Macy’s, Bloomingdales, Walgreens, Staples, McDonalds, and Whole Foods.“

Source: http://www.wired.com/2014/09/apple-pay/

BitCoins 3 Fatal Design Flaws

For those that don’t know, BitCoin is a digital currency (known as a cryptocurrency) that is not issued by governments or banks. Instead the currency uses some complicated programming to limit the amount of money that can be created. Only 21 million BitCoins will ever be created, and there is no  human decision maker who can influence that. For advocates of the currency, this is a major advantage, as it prevents the abuse of the power to create money. It is easy to see why this would be so appealing – after all, we have recently seen the damage that can happen when commercial banks have the power to create hundreds of billions of pounds in just a few years.

But there are serious problems with BitCoin. This was highlighted most recently when one of the largest exchanges MtGox, revealed that it had lost around $350 million of customer’s money after hacking incident. “Lost” in this sense doesn’t mean they made bad investments that went bad; the BitCoins were literally stolen, now exist on somebody else’s computer, and the exchange has no idea where they are.

I want to look at BitCoin’s design flaws here, so if you want to know more about the details of the currency itself, read How to Explain BitCoin to your Grandmother by Brett Scott or this Chicago Federal Reserve paper for a central bank perspective.

BitCoin is a prototype

The key point to note is that BitCoin is a prototype for what is now known as crypto currency. It was the first of its kind, an experiment designed by someone (or a some group) going by the name Satoshi Nakamoto. The original paper that outlines the proposal for a currency is well written but has the tone of a working paper – an initial proposal, not fully thought out, rather than a fully worked out master plan.

What usually happens with a new idea or product is that you try it out, find that it’s inherently flawed, and then you alter the design to make it work better. Orville and Wilbur Wright’s original plane flew just a few metres. The first bicycle, designed in 1817, involved sitting on a saddle whilst pushing the bike along by running with your feet on the floor:

First Bicycle

The fanaticism of some BitCoin enthusiasts, along with the claims that BitCoin – specifically – will become the currency of the future, is a bit like someone in 1902 insisting that in the future we’ll all be flying across the Atlantic in individual gliders that look like this:

Wright Brothers Initial Plane

Of course we won’t. The first prototype of something should be a test case, which reveals the design flaws then gets discarded in favour of something better.

I believe there are two  design flaws that are fatal for BitCoin.

Design Flaw 1. The rate of money creation

BitCoin is designed so that new BitCoins are created (‘mined’) at a predetermined and gradually decelerating speed. Around half the BitCoins that were ever designed have been created already. The money supply will increase by another 66% between now and 2025, but by then the rate of creation of new BitCoins will have slowed to a negligible amount, essentially making it a fixed money supply by 2025.

bitcoin-monetary-base

This limited supply was supposed to be a clever design feature, but actually it’s turned BitCoin into a speculative asset. The problem with this is that the amount of the currency doesn’t increase in line with the number of people using it. Economists from the Austrian school would argue that this is fine: just allow prices to fall relative to the currency. Indeed, that’s what has happened with BitCoin – each BitCoin now buys you more real “stuff” in the economy than it did in the past.

The problem comes when the limited supply affects the way people use the currency. BitCoin users who have seen the currency go from 1 BitCoin = $5 (in 2011) to 1 BitCoin = $445 (as it currently is) don’t think “Great, the price of a Coke is falling in terms of BitCoin”. Instead they think, “If I sit on the BitCoins that I own, in 1 year they might be worth 10 times more. So I won’t spend them.”

This means that BitCoin users don’t want to pay using BitCoin. In other words, they want to use BitCoin as a speculative investment, rather than as a means of payment. 

The only way to avoid this is to ensure that the supply of the currency increases in line with how much it is being used, so that the exchange of BitCoin to other currencies or of BitCoin to real goods and services is broadly stable. Without this design feature, a currency that consistently and rapidly appreciates relative to other currencies will be held as an asset rather than being used to make payments.

This is a design flaw specific to BitCoin. Other cryptocurrencies have different ways of regulating the creation of the coins.

A Note on Volatility

BitCoin is also highly volatile, having jumped from $13.36 at the beginning of 2013 to $1,124.76 in November 2013 – an 8,313% increase – and then back down to $445 today. I don’t list this as one of the currency’s design flaws as it’s largely to do with the fact that BitCoin is new, uncertain, and that the authorities aren’t quite sure how to deal with it, so volatility is a result more of the speculation about whether BitCoin will be banned or accepted, rather than the fundamental issue of the rate of money creation.

Design Flaw 2: BitCoin rewards the adopters and speculators

As with the current monetary system, BitCoin rewards the creators of the currency (the ‘miners’ who use their computers to do complex calculations to create the currency). The early adopters have become very wealthy, along with speculators who sit on their coins rather than spending them. Again, this means that those who benefit from the currency are not those who use it to trade in the real economy i.e. people who actually produce real value and make BitCoin a viable and usable currency. Instead, the benefit goes to those who sit on the currency (which prevents it functioning as a currency and makes it a speculative asset).

I would prefer to see a cryptocurrency that rewards those who use the currency as a means of payment, rather than as a speculative asset. So the more you use the currency to buy goods and services from the real economy, the more you would get rewarded with a portion of any newly created currency, whereas those who sit on their coins and use them as a speculative asset would get no share of the newly created money.

My knowledge of computer science and maths aren’t sufficient to say how this could be programmed, but it doesn’t appear to be too complicated. (There would need to be some kind of check to ensure that you don’t end up with people gaming the system, for example two users trading the currency between themselves at high speed in order to ‘earn’ more of the newly created coins.)

Design Flaw 3: BitCoin is LESS secure that national currencies

Because of the design of BitCoin, each coin should be seen as a physical unit that exists on a specific computer hard drive. In the same way that a house burglar could steal gold coins (which I’m sure you have lying around the house), a computer hacker can steal your BitCoins.

One user left his coins on a hard-drive which went to landfill, and then saw the value of the coins appreciate to hundreds of thousands of pounds. The exchange MtGox has alleged ‘lost’ 650,000 BitCoins as a result of hacking.

Anyone holding a significant amount of BitCoins is advised to transfer them to “cold storage” –  a hard drive or USB disk that is disconnected from any computer connected to the internet, and hidden somewhere secure (eg. a physical safe).

For all the arguments that BitCoin is ‘safer’ because it has no central authority, it certainly isn’t safer in practical terms.

The Way Forward

Cryptocurrencies are fascinating. We’ve made a very clear argument that the current monetary system, in which most money is created by banks when they make loans, has been a disaster. But at the same time, when states have used their power to create money, such as through QE, they’ve used it to inflate financial markets (enriching the already wealthy), rather than benefitting the real economy and ordinary people.

We’re obviously campaigning for national currencies to be created and used in the public interest, but it’s still possible that national currencies might be bypassed completely if a currency comes along that is stable, works in the interest of ordinary people, and prevents abuse of the power to create money.

Since BitCoin was established, literally hundreds of other cryptocurrencies have been designed and released. One of them already out there might have the right design features to make a stable currency that can be a real benefit to society and the economy. Cryptocurrencies have only been around for half a decade; there will be a lot of innovation over the next 5 years and it’s possible that we might see something genuinely socially useful come out of it.

But with regards to BitCoin, it’s time to let it die to make way for something better.

 

PS. This reddit thread by people who lost money when the MtGox exchange shut down shows how BitCoin has become a speculative asset bubble similar to the dot com bubble or any stock market bubble. There are stories of people taking their  kid’s education fund, or partner’s life savings, and investing them entirely in BitCoin. One guy even claims his friend committed suicide after investing – and losing – over $900,000 in BitCoin.

But this is not the fault of BitCoin, or a disadvantage of BitCoin. It’s more a fault of a lack of general financial literacy, in particular an ignorance of the basic point that you should never invest all of your wealth in one single asset, whether it’s BitCoin, or RBS shares (or property for that matter). Many of these people had no concept of risk management. I’m not sure we can blame them – an understanding of money and financial literacy is not something that most people acquired at school.

There’s also the desire to “get rich quick” or even just boost your income beyond what you can earn from working. Again, I’m not sure how much we can blame people for that. When the current monetary system is making it harder and harder for people to save anything after paying the mortgage and the costs of living, it’s natural to look for other ways of making money. If the guy mentioned above genuinely believed that investing in BitCoin would mean that his kids could go to university whilst avoiding being saddled with the debt, then it’s natural for him to take that option. It was the lack of understanding of money, finance or risk management that led to him making such a bad decision.

Source: http://www.positivemoney.org/2014/04/bitcoins-fatal-design-flaws/

Apples Strategie im Mobile Payment

Kein anderes Unternehmen wird so unter die Lupe genommen und beobachtet wie Apple. Kaum ein anderes entfacht so viele Spekulationen und Gerüchte, generiert so viele Nachrichten und heizt die Phantasie über neue Produkte, Angebote und Technologien so an wie dieses Unternehmen aus Cupertino. Und das aus gutem Grund. Denn gerade Apple hat in der Vergangenheit mit seinen neuen Angeboten und Produkten bewiesen, dass es in der Lage ist, das Geschäft verschiedener Branchen grundlegend auf den Kopf zu stellen, und den Markt radikal zu ändern.

grey Apples Schachzüge im Mobile Payment: eine Analyse (Teil 1)Doch gilt dies heute noch? In den letzten Jahren sind mit dem Übergang von Steve Jobs zu Tim Cook die Unkenrufe immer lauter geworden. Hat Apple seine besten Zeiten schon hinter sich? Steigt das Unternehmen ins Mobile Payment ein? Mit welchen Angeboten, in welcher Rolle? Holen sie vielleicht zum großen Rundumschlag aus? Oder ist der Zug für sie vielleicht schon abgefahren, weil sie bislang kein NFC (Near Field Communication) integriert haben? Oder läutet gar wegen der „Android-Strategie“ eines offenen Öko-Systems die Todesglocke für das Unternehmen?

Alles scheint offen. Apple lässt sich wie immer nicht in die Karten schauen. Warum auch? Es sind jedoch mittlerweile mehr als eindeutige Signale zu erkennen in welche Richtung das Unternehmen sich bewegt. Wenn wir die Vorgehensweise des Unternehmens aus der Vergangenheit ins Kalkül ziehen, dann sollten Apples Schachzüge im Mobile Payment  sorgfältig beobachtet und begleitet werden. Das Zeitfenster für eigene selbstgestaltete Mobile Payment Strategien und Maßnahmen beginnt sich allmählich zu schließen.

Kein Wettbewerber in diesem Segment sollte davon ausgehen, dass er in 1-2 Jahren noch die Zeit dafür hat, seine Figuren in aller Ruhe auf dem „Next Generation Payment-Schachbrett“ auf zu stellen. Es ist zu erwarten, dass der erste Zug von Apple nicht „Weiß, von e2 auf e4“ sondern „Schachmatt“ ist.

Angstmache oder Trend? Was spricht dafür?

Fakten, Analysen und Einschätzungen in sieben Punkten mit anschließender Bewertung sollen in diesem Artikel aufgezeigt werden. Die ersten 4 von 7 folgen hier im Teil 1:

1.    Die Fakten

Mit 600 Millionen iTunes-Nutzern ist die Kundenbasis 4,37 mal so groß wie bei PayPal und 3,4 mal so groß wie von Amazon. Täglich kommen 500.000 Kunden dazu. In den Vereinigten Staaten werden 66% der M-Commerce-Ausgaben über iOS-Anwendungen erzielt. In Deutschland nutzen 60% (nach den veröffentlichten Downloadzahlen) der 30 führenden Mobile Banking-Anwendungen (der deutschen Banken) dieses Betriebssystem. Entwickler oder die neuen Mobile-POS Startups wie z.B. Square, iZettle, Payleven lieben Apple-Endgeräte bzw. iOS.

Tim Cook meldete im letzten Monat den höchsten Umsatz der Firmengeschichte, und dass 51 Millionen iPhone 5S verkauft wurden. Das alles mit einer Marge über alle Endgeräte von 37,9 Prozent. 41% der Smartphone-Kunden in den USA sollen mittlerweile das iPhone nutzen und 57% des Mobilen Internetzugangs in China erfolgt über das iOS-Betriebssystem. Und iPhones erreichen eine Kundenzufriedenheit- und loyalität von über 90%.

2.    Apple „Passbook“

Im Herbst 2012 führte Apple mit dem „Passbook“ einen „Barcode Payment Container“ ein, über den Coupons, Tickets, Bordkarten gespeichert werden können. Über eine technische Schnittstelle können Entwickler und Brands leicht Dienste in das Passbook integrieren. Mehr als 100 Brands wie z.B. Lufthansa, Air Berlin oder British Airways lassen Tickets in Passbook speichern. Mehr als 150 Brands wie Starbucks integrieren Gutscheine darin. Erste Gutscheinkampagnen wie z.B. von Harvester in England lassen aufhorchen.

3.    Fingerprint Sensor: Touch ID

Sicherheit ist die größte Hürde für Kunden und Händler für ein erfolgreiches Mobile Banking und Payment und hat damit einen direkten Einfluss auf die Nutzungshäufigkeit und Akzeptanz der Services. Neben dem schnelleren Zugang zum Endgerät soll der Fingerabdruck zukünftig zur Authentifizierung genutzt werden. Eine wesentliche Voraussetzung für einen schnellen, attraktiven und sicheren Zahlungsprozess. In Amerika und Asien sind biometrische Verfahren im Alltag bereits weiter verbreitet als in Europa.

Es  werden nicht nur hier folgende Fragen beantwortet werden müssen: Akzeptieren Kunden- und Händler die biometrische Technik? Was ist bei dieser Technik zu beachten? Welche  Anforderungen stellen Banken und Händler? Ist die Technik geeignet für Online-Banking oder –Commerce? Was sagen die Aufsichtsbehörden dazu?  Allen Anpassungen zu Trotz ist laut Tim Cook: „Mobile Payment via Touch ID on the way.“

4.    Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) und iBeacons

Der Technologiestandard BLE ist schon länger in den relevanten Smartphone- und Tablets der führenden Hersteller integriert und ist damit bislang weiter als NFC-Technik verbreitet. Durch die Nutzung von iBeacons – vorgestellt im September 2013 – sind dadurch Marketing- und GPS-Lösungen innerhalb von Läden möglich bis hin zu Mobile Payment im Zusammenspiel u.a. mit der Touch ID. Darüber hinaus sind BLE und die iBeacons eine Antwort Apples auf das „Internet der Dinge“, ein weiterer großer Trend, der mittel- bis langfristig die „mobile Nutzung“ von Smartphones und Tablets im Wirtschaftsleben integrieren wird.

5.    Einflussfaktor: China Der chinesische Markt, der wichtigste Zielmarkt Apples, ist nahezu aus dem Stand der größte Mobile Payment-Markt der Welt geworden. Dabei überrascht weniger die Tatsache als die Schnelligkeit, mit der dies geschehen ist. Die Geschwindigkeit zeigt vor allem eins, es gibt einen riesigen Bedarf nach Mobile Payment. Damit passen übrigens auch die Gartner-Prognosen wieder. Die Chinesen sind in die Bresche von Google gesprungen. Die chinesische Zentralnotenbank berichtete unlängst von 1,6 Billionen US-Dollar in Mobile Payment, wobei die Transaktionen gegenüber dem Vorjahr um 213% und der Wert der Transaktionen um 317% gestiegen sind. 0,8 Prozent der Mobile Payment-Transaktionen haben NFC als Grundlage. China hat aktuell 500 Millionen Mobile Internet-Nutzer.

grey Apples Schachzüge im Mobile Payment: eine Analyse (Teil 2)

Was hat dies jedoch mit Apple zu tun? Apple hatte im vergangenen Jahr nach langem Ringen einen Vertrag mit China Mobile, dem mit 750 Millionen Kunden größten Mobilfunkbetreiber der Welt, abgeschlossen und damit endlich den Fuss im wichtigen chinesischen Markt. China Mobile setzt im Bereich Mobile Payment mit seinem Partner NTT Docomo auf NFC-Technik und hat innerhalb kürzester Zeit 3 Millionen Nutzer erzielt. Darüber hinaus wird chinesischen Banken die Zusammenarbeit bei einer Mobile Payment-Plattform (Kollaboratives Strategiemodell) angeboten im Zusammenspiel mit China Mobile. Die Milliarden-Dollar-Preisfrage lautet daher: Wie wird sich Apple jetzt entscheiden?

6.    Einflussfaktor: Strategien Apple besitzt aufgrund seiner erfolgreichen Endgeräte-Strategien wesentliche Eckpfeiler der Mobile Payment-Wertschöpfungskette: die Kunden und Händler. Mit der Entscheidung für BLE und iBeacons sind kurzfristig schneller einsatzfähige Mobile Payment-Services mit geringerer Öko-System-Komplexität möglich. Fatal sind aktuelle NFC-Payment-Anbieter ist die aktuell fehlende NFC-Technik bei Apple. Da Länderübergreifend, auch in Deutschland die aktivsten Nutzer (ca. 60%) aus dem iOS-Lager kommen. Stickerlösungen sind eher als Second-Best-Lösungen anzusehen. Der Markt dürfte erst richtig abheben, wenn es integrierte Angebote gibt. Zu guter Letzt testet Apple seine Mobile Payment-Lösung vor der Einführung in den Markt ausgiebig in seinen Shops.

7.       Innovationen und Patente Apple hat in der jüngsten Vergangenheit zahlreiche Patente für Mobile Payment-Services angemeldet. Dazu gehören „Zahlungen für Güter, die über ein Signal von einem Smartphone zu einem drahtlosen Empfänger veranlasst werden,“ oder „ein Sensor der biometrische und NFC-Technik kombiniert,“ oder „eine Methode und ein System, das Kredits verwaltet.“

Bewertung:

Von allen Teilnehmern hat Apple die komfortabelste Position, da es mit Abstand über die meisten Optionen verfügt, und es sich beinahe Aussuchen kann, welche Rolle es einnehmen möchte, und welche Einnahmen an der Wertschöpfungskette es erzielen möchte. Als Stichworte für die Rollenoptionen mögen folgende ausreichen: Hardwarelieferant (Smartphone, Lesegeräte), Trusted Service Manager, White Label Plattform oder „Weltbank“. Das Unternehmen hat höchstes „Game Changer Potential“ aufgrund seiner Finanzkraft, der überragenden Kundenbasis (Endkunde/Händler), seiner Erfahrung mit komplexen Innovationsproblemen, seiner Historie und der skizzierten Schachzüge. Dabei wird das Unternehmen zukünftig nicht einseitig den Markt bestimmen, sondern wird auf Marktentwicklungen in seinen wichtigsten Zielmärkten wie China reagieren müssen. Wenn sich die größten Mobile Payment-Branchen auf die NFC-Technologie festlegen, wird das Unternehmen reagieren müssen. Die Patente geben dabei die hilfreiche Fingerzeige.

Erwartungen

  • Apple wird NFC in seinen Endgeräten (Smartphone / Tablet) integrieren. (Argumente: Patente, China, wachsende Verbreitung von NFC-fähigen End- und Lesegeräte bis 2016).
  • Mit BLE / iBeacons hat sich Apple weitere Optionen im Marketing, Mobile Payment und Internet der Dinge geschaffen.
  • Apple wird sich nicht zu einer „Weltbank“ entwickeln. Dies ist erstens nicht erfolgreich und aufgrund der großen regulatorischen Anforderungen an Banken weltweit unternehmerisch nicht sinnvoll.
  • Apple wird versuchen, seine aktuelle Position, in zentrale Rollen in dem kommenden Mobile Payment Öko-System, zu übersetzen. Idealerweise als „White-Label-Plattform-Anbieter“.

Empfehlungen an Banken

Kurzfristig: 

  • Design, Gestaltung und Umsetzung Digitaler Strategie
  • Einführung und Ausweitung von Mobile Banking-Services
  • Design einer eigenständigen Mobile Payment Strategie
  • Unternehmensstrategie
  • Vorantreiben der „Mobile Readyness“ des eigenen Unternehmens
  • Konsortium innerhalb der Branche / Branchenübergreifend
  • Enge Zusammenarbeit mit nationaler und europäischer Regulierung

Mittelfristig:

  • Einführung eines Mobile Payment Öko-Systems
  • Einführung einer Mobile Payment-Lösung

Dieser Artikel basiert auf einem Vortrag vom 18. März 2014 auf der Konferenz “Next Generation Payments” des Bankingclubs in Köln.

grey Apples Schachzüge im Mobile Payment: eine Analyse (Teil 2)

Der Autor: Thomas Lerner ist Management Berater, Autor, Trainer und Speaker bei Mobile Marketing, Banking, Payment und Banking Services. Im Dezember 2013 ist sein Buch „Mobile Payment“ in englischer Sprache erscheinen. Im Sommer 2014 erscheint sein neues Buch „Mobile Marketing / Mobile Banking“.

Quelle: http://www.mobile-zeitgeist.com/2014/03/27/apples-schachzuege-im-mobile-payment-eine-analyse-teil-1/ sowie http://www.mobile-zeitgeist.com/2014/03/28/apples-schachzuege-im-mobile-payment-eine-analyse-teil-2/

Das Ende von Facebook? Top Investor Peter Thiel steigt aus

Peter Thiel Gründer von Paypal steigt aus Facebook aus.

2004 mit einem Investment von 500.000 Dollar gestartet, sind seine 22.3 Mio. Aktien nunmehr 446 Mio. Dollar wert. Die Aktie verlor seit dem Börsendebut mehr als die Hälfte an Wert.

Ein „Insider“, der beim erstmöglichen Zeitpunkt Kasse macht: Zeichen des drohenden Innovationsrückgangs bei Facebook?

Den Mangel eines eigenen Betriebssystems für mobile Rechner auszugleichen und sich gleich gegen drei potente Gegner zu positionieren (Apple mit IOS, Google mit Android und Microsoft mit Windows Phone) erscheint als wenig gangbare Alternative. Was bleibt?

Ein Kundenstock, der sich weniger häufig einloggt als früher, quasi ein E-mail für die Welt, mit gleichzeitiger Sharing-Möglichkeit von digitalen Daten.

near field communications (NFC) und Mobiles Bezahlen (Mastercard: PayPass | Visa: payWave)

Bezahlen so einfach wie das Benutzen einer Zutrittskarte in Ihrer Firma?

2011 wird mobiles Payment massenmarktfähig.

Die Vorgeschichte.
seit dem 2. Weltkrieg: RFID als Vorläufer von NFC im Einsatz
2002 NFC als Forschungsobjekt in einem Joint-Venture von Sony und NXP Semiconductors
2004 formierte sich das NFC-Forum, dem alle Branchengrößen beitraten. American Express, MasterCard, Panasonic, Microsoft, Motorola, NEC, Samsung, Texas Instruments, Hewlett-Packard, VISA International Service Association, Vodafone, Sprint, Postbank, Telefónica und France Télécom.
2007 mobiles Bezahlen der ÖBB und Wiener Linien unterstützt NFC
2011-2012 Massenmarktfähigkeit: Branchenprimi Mastercard und Visa investieren hohe Energie in Schaffung der nötigen Payment-Infrastrukur und pushen Paypass und payWave aktiv in den Markt. 350.000 Händler sind bereits angeschlossen. Smartphone Hersteller Google und Blackberry bringen attraktive neue Handsets mit eingebautem NFC-Chips auf den Markt (Google Nexus S, Blackberry Bold 9900)

Wie funktioniert das mobile Bezahlen mit NFC?
Bereits seit mehreren Jahren erprobt und im Einsatz im Bereich der öffentlichen Verkehrsmittel. Statt ein Ticket am Schalter zu kaufen, wird das Smartphone (mit NFC-Chip) an einem NFC-Lesegerät vorbeigestrichen (bis zu 4 cm Entfernung).

Die Player am Markt und ihre Strategie?
Um den Rest kümmert sich der Payment Anbieter (mit der passenden Applikation am Gerät), der Endgerätehersteller (Google und Apple haben großes Interesse ihre eigenen Applikationen zu promoten) sowie Mobilfunknetzbetreiber (zur Abrechnung auf der Handyrechnung)

Die Zukunft?
Bald soll es nicht nur möglich sein mit dem Smartphone mobil zu bezahlen. Eine Implementierung in Microsoft Kinect ist angedacht, sodass in nicht allzu ferner Zukunft Einkäufe direkt vor dem Fernseher mit einem Schwenk des Smartphones oder des Controllers (Playstation, Xbox) möglich wird.

Wie kann NFC in Ihrem Unternehmen eingesetzt werden, um mobil höhere Umsätze zu generien?
Diskutieren Sie mit uns. innovativ@dieIdee.eu

Quellen:
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Near_Field_Communication
http://mashable.com/2011/08/11/near-field-communication-guide/

Exkurs: Wie funktioniert RFID? http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/RFID

„Die Übertragung der Identinformation erfolgt bei Systemen, die nach ISO 18000-1 ff. genormt sind, folgendermaßen: Das Lesegerät (Reader), das je nach Typ ggf. auch Daten schreiben kann, erzeugt ein hochfrequentes elektromagnetisches Wechselfeld, dem der RFID-Transponder (RFID-Tag) ausgesetzt wird. Die von ihm über die Antenne aufgenommene Hochfrequenzenergie dient während des Kommunikationsvorganges als Stromversorgung für seinen Chip. Bei aktiven Tags kann die Energieversorgung auch durch eine eingebaute Batterie erfolgen. Bei halb-aktiven Tags übernimmt die Batterie lediglich die Versorgung des Mikrochips.

Der so aktivierte Mikrochip im RFID-Tag decodiert die vom Lesegerät gesendeten Befehle. Die Antwort codiert und moduliert dieser „Reader“ in das eingestrahlte elektromagnetische Feld durch Feldschwächung im kontaktfreien Kurzschluss oder gegenphasige Reflexion des vom Lesegerät ausgesendeten Feldes. Damit überträgt das Tag seine eigene unveränderliche Seriennummer, weitere Daten des gekennzeichneten Objekts oder andere vom Lesegerät abgefragte Information. Das Tag erzeugt selbst also kein Feld, sondern beeinflusst das elektromagnetische Sendefeld des Readers.“