Archiv der Kategorie: Innovatoren

Alex Karp – Palantir

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/17/style/alex-karp-palantir.html

Alex Karp never learned to drive.

“I was too poor,” he said. “And then I was too rich.”

In fact, Mr. Karp, a co-founder and the C.E.O. of Palantir Technologies, the mysterious and powerful data analytics firm, doesn’t trust himself to drive. Or ride a bike. Or ski downhill.

“I’m a dreamer,” he said. “I’ll start dreaming and then I fall over. I started doing tai chi to prevent that. It’s really, really helped with focusing on one thing at a time. If you had met me 15 years ago, two-thirds of the conversation, I’d just be dreaming.”

What would he dream about?

“Literally, it could be a walk I did five years ago,” he said. “It could be some conversation I had in grad school. Could be my family member annoyed me. Something a colleague said, like: ‘Why did they say this? What does it actually mean?’”

Mr. Karp is a lean, extremely fit billionaire with unruly salt-and-pepper curls. He is introvert-charming (something I aspire to myself). He has A.D.H.D. and can’t hide it if he is not interested in what someone is saying. After a hyper spurt of talking, he loses energy and has to recharge on the stationary bike or by reading. Even though he thinks of himself as different, he seems to like being different. He enjoys being a provocateur onstage and in interviews.

“I’m a Jewish, racially ambiguous dyslexic, so I can say anything,” he said, smiling.

Unlike many executives in Silicon Valley, Mr. Karp backed President Biden, cutting him a big check, despite skepticism about his handling of the border and his overreliance on Hollywood elites like Jeffrey Katzenberg. Now he is supporting Vice President Kamala Harris, but he still has vociferous complaints about his party.

When he donates, he said, he does it in multiples of 18 because “it’s mystical — 18 brings good luck in the tradition of kabbalah. I gave Biden $360,000.”

The 56-year-old is perfectly happy hanging out in a remote woodsy meadow alone — except for his Norwegian ski instructor, his Swiss-Portuguese chef, his Austrian assistant, his American shooting instructor and his bodyguards. (Mr. Karp, who has never married, once complained that bodyguards crimp your ability to flirt.)

“This is like introverts’ heaven,” he said, looking at his red barn from the porch of his Austrian-style house with a mezuza on the door. “You can invite people graciously. No one comes.”

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The house is sparse on furniture, but Mr. Karp still worries that it is too cluttered. “I do have a Spartan thing,” he said. “I definitely feel constrained and slightly imprisoned when I have too much stuff around me.”

Wearing a white T-shirt and faded bluejeans, and with his hands in his pockets, Mr. Karp stands beside a wood-burning stove.
Asked about the dangers of artificial intelligence, Mr. Karp said, “The only solution to stop A.I. abuse is to use A.I.”Credit…Ryan David Brown for The New York Times

So how did a daydreaming doctoral student in German philosophy wind up leading a shadowy data analytics firm that has become a major American defense contractor, one that works with spy services as it charts the future of autonomous warfare?

He’s not a household name, and yet Mr. Karp is at the vanguard of what Mark Milley, the retired general and former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has called “the most significant fundamental change in the character of war ever recorded in history.” In this new world, unorthodox Silicon Valley entrepreneurs like Mr. Karp and Elon Musk are woven into the fabric of America’s national security.

Mr. Karp is also at the white-hot center of ethical issues about whether firms like Palantir are too Big Brother, with access to so much of our personal data as we sign away our privacy. And he is in the middle of the debate about whether artificial intelligence is friend or foe, whether killer robots and disembodied A.I. will one day turn on us.

Mr. Karp’s position is that we’re hurtling toward this new world whether we like it or not. Do we want to dominate it, or do we want to be dominated by China?

Critics worry about what happens when weapons are autonomous and humans become superfluous to the killing process. Tech reflects the values of its operators, so what if it falls into the hands of a modern Caligula?

“I think a lot of the issues come back to ‘Are we in a dangerous world where you have to invest in these things?’” Mr. Karp told me, as he moved around his living room in a tai chi rhythm, wearing his house shoes, jeans and a tight white T-shirt. “And I come down to yes. All these technologies are dangerous.” He adds: “The only solution to stop A.I. abuse is to use A.I.”

Palantir’s name is derived from palantíri, the seeing stones in the J.R.R. Tolkien fantasies. The company’s office in Palo Alto, Calif., features “Lord of the Rings” décor and is nicknamed the Shire.

After years under the radar, Mr. Karp is now in the public eye. He has joked that he needs a coach to teach him how to be more normal.

Born in New York and raised outside Philadelphia in a leftist family, Mr. Karp has a Jewish father who was a pediatrician and a Black mother who is an artist. They were social activists who took young Alex to civil rights marches and other protests. His uncle, Gerald D. Jaynes, is an economics and African American studies professor at Yale; his brother, Ben, is an academic who lives in Japan.

“I just think I’ve always viewed myself as I don’t fit in, and I can’t really try to,” Mr. Karp said. “My parents’ background just gave me a primordial subconscious bias that anything that involves ‘We fit in together’ does not include me.

“Yes, I think the way I explain it politically is like, if fascism comes, I will be the first or second person on the wall.”

Mr. Karp has his own unique charisma. “He’s one of a kind, to say the least,” said the Democratic strategist James Carville, who is an informal adviser to Palantir.

When I visited the Palo Alto office, Mr. Karp accidentally knocked down a visitor while demonstrating a tai chi move. He apologized, then ran off to get a printout of Goethe’s “Faust” in German, which he read aloud in an effort to show that it was better than the English translation.

“If you were to do a sitcom on Palantir, it’s equal parts Larry David, a philosophy class, tech and James Bond,” he said.

Mr. Karp, just left of center, wearing a dark suit, a light-colored shirt and a dark tie, walks on a marble floor while holding a folder under his right arm.
Mr. Karp at the Senate building in Washington last year. He was among the tech industry titans, including Bill Gates, Elon Musk and Sam Altman, who took part in a discussion of A.I. with lawmakers.Credit…Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times

Palantir was founded in 2003 by a gang of five, including Karp and his old Stanford Law School classmate Peter Thiel (now the company’s chairman). It was backed, in part, by nearly $2 million from In-Q-Tel, the C.I.A.’s venture capital arm.

“Saving lives and on occasion taking lives is super interesting,” Mr. Karp told me.

He described what his company does as “the finding of hidden things” — sifting through mountains of data to perceive patterns, including patterns of suspicious or aberrant behavior.

Mr. Karp does not believe in appeasement. “You scare the crap out of your adversaries,” he said. He brims with American chauvinism, boasting that we are leagues ahead of China and Russia on software.

“The tech scene in America is like the jazz scene in the 1950s,” he said in one forum. He told me: “I’m constantly telling people 86 percent of the top 50 tech companies in the world just by market cap are American — and people fall out of their chair. It’s hard for us to understand how dominant we are in certain industries.”

In the wake of 9/11, the C.I.A. bet on Palantir’s maw gobbling up data and auguring where the next terrorist attacks would come from. Palantir uses multiple databases to find the bad guy, even, as Mr. Karp put it, “if the bad guy actually works for you.”

The company is often credited with helping locate Osama bin Laden so Navy SEALs could kill him, but it’s unclear if that is true. As with many topics that came up in the course of our interviews in Washington, Palo Alto and New Hampshire, Mr. Karp zips his lips about whether his company was involved in dispatching the fiend of 9/11.

“If you have a reputation for talking about what the pope says when you meet him,” Mr. Karp explained, “you’ll never meet the pope again.”

He does crow a little about Western civilization’s resting on Palantir’s slender shoulders, noting that without its software, “you would’ve had massive terror attacks in Europe already, like Oct. 7 style.” And those attacks, he believes, would have propelled the far right to power.

Palantir does not do business with China, Russia or other countries that are opposed to the West. Mr. Thiel said the company tries to work with “more allied” and “less corrupt” governments, noting dryly that aside from their ideological stances, “with corrupt countries, you never get paid.”

“We have a consistently pro-Western view that the West has a superior way of living and organizing itself, especially if we live up to our aspirations,” Mr. Karp said. “It’s interesting how radical that is, considering it’s not, in my view, that radical.”

He added: “If you believe we should appease Iran, Russia and China by saying we’re going to be nicer and nicer and nicer, of course you’ll look at Palantir negatively. Some of these places want you to do the apology show for what you believe in, and we don’t apologize for what we believe in. I’m not going to apologize for defending the U.S. government on the border, defending the Special Ops, bringing the people home. I’m not apologizing for giving our product to Ukraine or Israel or lots of other places.”

As one Karp acquaintance put it: “Alex is principled. You just may not like his principles.”

Kara Swisher, the author of “Burn Book: A Tech Love Story,” told me: “While Palantir promises a more efficient and cost-effective way to conduct war, should our goal be to make it less expensive, onerous and painful? After all, war is not a video game, nor should it be.”

Mr. Karp’s friend Diane von Furstenberg told me that he sees himself as Batman, believing in the importance of choosing sides in a parlous world. (The New York office is called Gotham and features a statue and prints of Batman.) But some critics have a darker view, worrying about Palantir creating a “digital kill chain” and seeing Mr. Karp less as a hero than as a villain.

Back in 2016, some Democrats regarded Palantir as ominous because of Mr. Thiel’s support for former President Donald J. Trump. Later, conspiracy theories sprang up around the company’s role in Operation Warp Speed, the federal effort pushing the Covid-19 vaccine program from clinical trials to jabs in arms.

Seated next to each other at a conference table, Donald J. Trump uses both hands to hold the right hand of Peter Thiel, who is smiling. Mike Pence sits on the other side of Mr. Trump, looking on and smiling.
In December 2016, Donald J. Trump, then the president-elect, met with tech executives including the Palantir co-founder Peter Thiel.Credit…Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Some critics focused on Palantir’s work at the border, which helped U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement track down undocumented migrants for deportation. In 2019, about 70 demonstrators blocked access to the cafeteria outside the Palo Alto office. “Immigrants are welcome here, time to cancel Palantir,” they shouted.

The same year, over 200 Palantir employees, in a letter to Mr. Karp, outlined their concerns about the software that had helped ICE. And there was a campaign inside Palantir — in vain — to get him to donate the proceeds of a $49 million ICE contract to charity.

I asked Mr. Karp if Mr. Thiel’s public embrace of Mr. Trump the first time around had made life easier — in terms of getting government contracts — or harder.

“I didn’t enjoy it,” he said. “There’s a lot of reasons I cut Biden a check. I do not enjoy being protested every day. It was completely ludicrous and ridiculous. It was actually the opposite. Because Peter had supported Mr. Trump, it was actually harder to get things done.”

Did they talk about it?

“Peter and I talk about everything,” Mr. Karp said. “It’s like, yes, I definitely informed Peter, ‘This is not making our life easier.’”

Mr. Thiel did not give money to Mr. Trump or speak at his convention this time around, although he supports JD Vance, his former protégé at his venture capital firm. He said he might get more involved now because of Mr. Vance.

Palantir got its start in intelligence and defense — it now works with the Space Force — and has since sprouted across the government through an array of contracts. It helps the I.R.S. to identify tax fraud and the Food and Drug Administration to prevent supply chain disruptions and to get drugs to market quicker.

It has assisted Ukraine and Israel in sifting through seas of data to gather relevant intelligence in their wars — on how to protect special forces by mapping capabilities, how to safely transport troops and how to target drones and missiles more accurately.

In 2022, Mr. Karp took a secret trip to war-ravaged Kyiv, becoming the first major Western C.E.O. to meet with Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, and offering to supply his country with the technology that would allow it to be David to Russia’s Goliath. Time magazine ran a cover on Ukraine as a lab for A.I. warfare, and Palantir operatives embedded with the troops.

Mr. Karp is seated at a table with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and Deputy Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov.
A Ukrainian government handout image of Mr. Karp meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and Deputy Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov in 2022.Credit…Office of the President of Ukraine

While Palantir’s role in helping Ukraine was heralded, its work with Israel, where targeting is more treacherous, because the enemy is parasitically entangled with civilians, is far more controversial.

“I think there’s a huge dichotomy between how the elite sees Ukraine and Israel,” Mr. Karp said. “If you go into any elite circle, pushing back against Russia is obvious, and Israel is complicated. If you go outside elite circles, it’s exactly the opposite.”

Independent analysts have said that Israel, during an April operation, could not have shot down scores of Iranian missiles and drones in mere minutes without Palantir’s tech. But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s scorched-earth campaign in Gaza, the starving and orphaned children and the deaths of tens of thousands of civilians have drawn outrage, including some aimed at Mr. Karp and Mr. Thiel.

In May, protesters trapped Mr. Thiel inside a student building at the University of Cambridge. In recent days, senior U.S. officials have expressed doubts about Israel’s conduct of the war.

Mr. Karp’s position on backing Israel is adamantine. The company took out a full-page ad in The New York Times last year stating that “Palantir stands with Israel.”

“It’s like we have a double standard on Israel,” he told me. If the Oct. 7 attack had happened in America, he said, we would turn the hiding place of our enemies “into a parking lot. There would be no more tunnels.”

As Mr. Karp told CNBC in March: “We’ve lost employees. I’m sure we’ll lose more employees. If you have a position that does not cost you ever to lose an employee, it’s not a position.”

He told me, “If you believe that the West should lose and you believe that the only way to defend yourself is always with words and not with actions, you should be skeptical of us.”

He added: “I always think it’s hard because where the critics are right is what we do is morally complex. If you’re supporting the West with products that are used at war, you can’t pretend that there’s a simple answer.”

Does he have any qualms about what his company does?

“I’d have many more qualms if I thought our adversaries were committed to anything like the rule of law,” he said, adding: “A lot of this does come down to, do you think America is a beacon of good or not? I think a lot of the critics, what they actually believe is America is not a force for good.” His feeling is this: “Without being Pollyannaish, idiotic or pretending like any country’s been perfect or there’s not injustice, at the margin, would you want a world where America is stronger, healthy and more powerful, or not?”

In a crowd of demonstrators, one holds up a hand-drawn sign that shows an arm labeled ICE shaking hands with an arm labeled Palantir, with a no symbol over it.
In 2019, demonstrators protested the role of Palantir Technologies in aiding U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.Credit…Shannon Stapleton/Reuters

Asked about the impending TikTok ban, he said he’s “very in favor.”

“I do not think you should allow an adversary to control an algorithm that is specifically designed to make us slower, more divided and arguably less cognitively fit,” he said.

He considered the anti-Israel demonstrations such “an infection inside society,” reflecting “a pagan religion of mediocrity and discrimination and intolerance, and violence,” that he offered 180 jobs to students who were fearful of staying in college because of a spike in antisemitism on campuses.

“Palantir is a much better diploma,” he told me. “Honestly, it’s helping us, because there are very talented people at the Ivy League, and they’re like, ‘Get me out of here!’”

Mr. Karp sometimes gets emotional in his defense of Palantir. In June, when he received an award named in honor of Dwight Eisenhower at a D.C. gala for national security executives, he teared up. He said that when he lived in Germany, he often thought about the young men from Iowa and Kansas who risked their lives “to free people like me” during World War II. He said he was honored to receive an award named after the president who had integrated schools by force.

Claiming that his products “changed the course of history by stopping terror attacks,” Mr. Karp said that Palantir had also “protected our men and women on the battlefield” and “taken the lives of our enemies, and I don’t think that’s something to be ashamed of.”

He told the gala audience about being “yelled at” by people who “call themselves progressives.”

“I actually am a progressive,” he said. “I want less war. You only stop war by having the best technology and by scaring the bejabers — I’m trying to be nice here — out of our adversaries. If they are not scared, they don’t wake up scared, they don’t go to bed scared, they don’t fear that the wrath of America will come down on them, they will attack us. They will attack us everywhere.”

He added that “we in the corporate world” have “to grow a spine” on issues like the Ivy League protesters: “If we do not win the battle of ideas and reassert basic norms and the basic, obvious idea that America is a noble, great, wonderful aspiration of a dream that we are blessed to be part of, we will have a much, much worse world for all of us.”

Mr. Karp practicing tai chi at his home in New Hampshire.Credit…Ryan David Brown for The New York Times

The wild origin story of Palantir plays like a spy satire.

After graduating from Haverford College, Mr. Karp went to Stanford Law School, which he called “the worst three years of my adult life.”

He wasn’t interested in his classmates’ obsession with landing prestigious jobs at top law firms. “I learned at law school that I cannot do something I do not believe in,” he said, “even if it’s just turning a wrench.”

He met Mr. Thiel, a fellow student, and they immediately hit it off, trash-talking law school and, over beers, debating socialism vs. capitalism. “We argued like feral animals,” Mr. Karp told Michael Steinberger in a New York Times Magazine piece.

The liberal Heidegger fan and the conservative René Girard fan made strange bedfellows, but that’s probably what drew them together.

“I think we bonded on this intellectual level where he was this crazy leftist and I was this crazy right-wing person,” Mr. Thiel told me, “but we somehow talked to each other.”

“Alex did the Ph.D. thing,“ he continued, “which was, in some ways, a very, very insane thing to do after law school, but I was positive on it, because it sounded more interesting than working at a law firm.”

Mr. Karp received his doctorate in neoclassical social theory from Goethe University Frankfurt. He reconnected with Mr. Thiel in 2002, while working at the Jewish Philanthropy Partnership in San Francisco. The two began doing “vague brainstorming,” as Mr. Thiel put it, about a business they could start.

Mr. Thiel thought he could figure out how to find terrorists by using some of the paradigms developed at PayPal, which he helped found, to uncover patterns of fraud.

“I was just always super annoyed when, every time you go to the airport, you had to take off a shoe or you had to go through all this security theater, which was both somewhat taxing but probably had very little to do with actual security,” Mr. Thiel said.

They brought in some software engineers.

“It was two and a half years after 9/11, and you’re starting a software company with people who know nothing about the C.I.A. or any of these organizations,” Mr. Thiel recalled.

It was all very cloak-and-dagger, in an Inspector Clouseau way. They decided to seek out John Poindexter, a retired rear admiral who was dubbed the godfather of modern surveillance; Admiral Poindexter had been forced to resign as President Ronald Reagan’s national security adviser after the Iran-Contra scandal broke. After 9/11, he worked at the Pentagon on a surveillance program called Total Information Awareness.

During the meeting, Mr. Thiel said he felt he was in the presence of a medal-festooned, Machiavelli-loving member of the military brass out of “Dr. Strangelove,” with “a LARPing vibe.”

“We had a hunch that there was a room marked ‘Super-Duper Computer,’ and if you went inside, it was just an empty room,” Mr. Thiel said. They feared their budding algorithm “would end up in a broom closet in the Pentagon,” so they moved on.

In 2005, Mr. Thiel asked Mr. Karp to be the frontman of a company with few employees, no contracts, no investors, no office and no functional tech. “It charitably could have been described as a work in progress,” Mr. Thiel said.

A brick building with large windows on a tree-lined street corner on a sunny day. The word Palantir appears in black lettering against the red brick.
Palantir’s headquarters in Palo Alto, Calif.Credit…Jim Wilson/The New York Times

Mr. Karp and his motley crew got a bunch of desks and explained to clients that they were unmanned because the (fictional) engineers were coming in later.

“God knows why Peter picked me as co-founder,” said Mr. Karp, who had to learn about coding on the job. “It was, in all modesty, a very good choice.”

Mr. Thiel explained: “In some ways, Alex doesn’t look like a salesperson from central casting you would send to the C.I.A. The formulation I always have is that if you’re trying to sell something to somebody, the basic paradox is you have to be just like them, so they can trust you — but you have to be very different from them so that they think you have something they don’t have.”

He said that Mr. Karp would not be suited to running Airbnb or Uber “or some mass consumer product.” But Palantir, he said, “is connected with this great set of geopolitical questions about the Western world versus the rising authoritarian powers. So if we can get our governments to function somewhat better, it’s a way to rebalance things in the direction of the West.”

“Normally,” Mr. Thiel continued, “these are bad ideas to have as a company. They’re too abstract, too idealistic. But I think something like this was necessary in the Palantir case. If you didn’t get some energy from thinking about these things, man, we would’ve sold the company after three years.”

Mr. Karp could not have been more of an outsider, to Silicon Valley and to Washington. He and his engineers had to buy suits for their visits to the capital. “We had no believers,” he said. “I kept telling Palantirians to call me Alex, and they kept calling me Dr. Karp. Then I realized the only thing they could believe in was that I had a Ph.D.”

The first few years, when tech investors were more interested in programs that let you play games on your phone, were rough. “We were like pariahs,” Mr. Karp said. “We couldn’t get meetings. If they did, it was a favor to Peter.”

With administrators in Washington, Mr. Karp recalled: “It was like, What is this Frankenstein monster doing in my office, making these wild claims that he can do better on things I have a huge budget for? How can it be that a freak-show motley crew of 12-year-old-looking mostly dudes, led by a pretty unique figure, from their perspective, would be able to do something with 1 percent of the money that we can’t do with billions and billions of dollars?”

“There’s nothing that we did at Palantir in building our software company that’s in any M.B.A.-made playbook,” Mr. Karp said. “Not one. That’s why we have been doing so well.”

He said that “the single most valuable education I had for business was sitting at the Sigmund Freud Institute, because I spent all my time with analysts.” When he worked at the institute in Frankfurt while getting his doctorate, Mr. Karp said, he would smoke cigars and think about “the conscious subconscious.”

“You’d be surprised how much analysts talk about their patients,” he said. “It’s disconcerting, actually. You just learn so much about how humans actually think.” This knowledge helps him motivate his engineers, he said.

Mr. Karp said he likes to think of Palantir’s workers as part of an artists’ colony or a family; he doesn’t use the word “staff.” He enjoys interviewing prospective employees personally and prides himself on making hires in under two minutes. (He likes to have a few people around who can talk philosophy and literature with him, in German and French.)

“A lot of my populist-left politics actually bleed into my hiring stuff,” he said. “If you ask the question that the Stanford, Harvard, Yale person has answered a thousand times, all you’re learning is that the Stanford, Harvard, Yale person has learned to play the game.”

Even if he gets a good answer from a “privileged” candidate and a bad answer from “the child of a mechanic,” he might prefer the latter if “I have that feeling like I’m in the presence of talent.”

He views Palantirians like the Goonies, underdogs winning in the end. “Most people at Palantir didn’t get to do a lot of winning in high school,” Mr. Karp said at a company gathering in Palo Alto, to laughter from the audience.

He thinks the United States is “very likely” to end up in a three-front war with China, Russia and Iran. So, he argues, we have to keep going full-tilt on autonomous weapons systems, because our adversaries will — and they don’t have the same moral considerations that we do.

“I think we’re in an age when nuclear deterrent is actually less effective because the West is very unlikely to use anything like a nuclear bomb, whereas our adversaries might,” he said. “Where you have technological parity but moral disparity, the actual disparity is much greater than people think.”

“In fact,” he added, “given that we have parity technologically but we don’t have parity morally, they have a huge advantage.”

A portrait of Mr. Karp seated in a dim room close to a window with daylight streaming through. Half his face is illuminated.
Mr. Karp, who said he supports Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, described his politics as “populist-left.”Credit…Ryan David Brown for The New York Times

Mr. Karp said that we are “very close” to terminator robots and at the threshold of “somewhat autonomous drones and devices like this being the most important instruments of war. You already see this in Ukraine.”

Palantir has learned from some early setbacks.

In 2011, the hacker group Anonymous showed that Palantir employees were involved in a proposed misinformation campaign to discredit WikiLeaks and smear some of its supporters, including the journalist Glenn Greenwald. (Mr. Karp apologized to Mr. Greenwald.) Then, at least one Palantir employee helped Cambridge Analytica collect the Facebook data that the Trump campaign used ahead of the 2016 election.

A pro bono contract with the New Orleans Police Department starting in 2012 was dropped after six years amid criticism that its “predictive policing” eroded privacy and had a disparate impact on people of color.

“We reduced the rates of Black-on-Black death in New Orleans,” Mr. Karp said, “and we have these critics who are like, ‘Palantir is racist.’ I don’t know. The hundreds of people that are alive now don’t think we’re racist.”

Mr. Carville, a New Orleans pooh-bah, asserted that the partnership ended because of “left-wing conspiracy theories.”

Palantir’s rough start in Silicon Valley came about, in part, because many objected to its work with the Department of Defense.

In 2017, Google won a Pentagon contract, Project Maven, to help the military use the company’s A.I. to analyze footage from drones. Employees protested, sending a letter to the C.E.O., Sundar Pichai: “Google should not be in the business of war,” it read. Soon after, Google backed away from the project.

In response, Palantir shaded Google in a tweet that quoted Mr. Karp: “Silicon Valley is telling the average American ‘I will not support your defense needs’ while selling products that are adversarial to America. That is a loser position.” Palantir picked up the contract in 2019.

That same year, Mr. Thiel said that Google had a “treasonous” relationship with China. When Google opened an A.I. lab in 2017 in China, where there’s little distinction between the civilian and the military, he argued, it was de facto helping China while refusing to help America. (That lab closed in 2019, but Google still does business with China, as does Apple.)

“When you have people working at consumer internet companies protesting us because we help the Navy SEALs and the U.S. military and were pro-border — and you’re becoming incredibly, mind-bogglingly rich, in part because America protects your right to export — to me, you’ve lost the sheet of music,” Mr. Karp said. “I don’t think that’s good for America.”

Scott Galloway, a professor at New York University and an authority on tech companies, agrees that many Silicon Valley C.E.O.s have been virtue-signaling and pretending to care about the progressive political views of employees, but really would sell “their mother for a nickel.”

“They’re not there to save the whales,” Mr. Galloway said. “They’re there to make money.”

He added: “Some of these big tech companies seem to be engaged in raising a generation of business leaders that just don’t like America, who are very focused on everything that’s wrong with America.

“Alex Karp is like, ‘No, we’ll cash the Pentagon’s check and we’ll collect data on our enemies.’ He’s gone the entirely opposite way, and I think it was a smart move.”

Palantir’s “spooky connotations,” as one executive put it, dissipated quite a bit when the company went public in 2020 and took on more commercial business; its clients include Airbus, J.P. Morgan, IBM and Amazon.

Mr. Thiel said that while Palantir had a brief stint working on a pilot program for the National Security Agency, the company would not want to do any more work there: “The N.S.A., it hoovers up all the data in the world. As far as I can tell, there are incredible civil liberties violations where they’re spying on everybody outside the U.S., basically. Then they’re fortunately too incompetent to do much with the data.”

The company has started turning a profit, and the stock has climbed. After a triumphant earnings report this month, Palantir’s stock price jumped again.

“The share price gives us more street cred,” Mr. Karp said.

In 2020, after 17 years in Silicon Valley, Mr. Karp moved Palantir’s headquarters to Denver. “I was fleeing Silicon Valley because of what I viewed as the regressive side of progressive politics,” he said.

He thinks that the valley has intensified class divisions in America.

“I don’t believe you would have a Trump phenomenon without the excesses of Silicon Valley,” he said. “Very, very wealthy people who support policies where they don’t have to absorb the cost at all. Just also the general feeling that these people are not tethered to our society, and simultaneously are becoming billionaires.“

“Not supporting the U.S. military,” he said, in a tone of wonder. “I don’t even know how you explain to the average American that you’ve become a multibillionaire and you won’t supply your product to the D.O.D. It’s jarringly corrosive. That’s before you get to all the corrosive, divisive things that are on these platforms.”

Akshay Krishnaswamy, Palantir’s chief architect, agreed on their Silicon Valley critics: “You live in the liberal democratic West because of reasons, and those reasons don’t come for free. They act like it doesn’t have to be fought for or defended rigorously.”

A potted orchid sits atop a table in a workout room.
Mr. Karp’s workout room.Credit…Ryan David Brown for The New York Times
Items on a table include Rubik's Cubes, a sword, juggling balls and a novel by Len Deighton.
A few of his favorite things.Credit…Ryan David Brown for The New York Times

Mr. Karp said things had evolved. “I think there’s a different perception of us now a little bit. A lot of that was tied to Trump, ICE work. It built up and we were definitely outsiders. We’re still outsiders, but I feel less resistance for sure. And people have a better idea of what we do, maybe.” He added, “Defense tech is a big part of Silicon Valley now.”

The A.I. revolution, he said, will come with a knotty question: “How do you make sure the society’s fair when the means of production have become means that only 1 percent of the population actually knows how to navigate?”

I asked if he agrees with Elon Musk that A.I. is eventually going to take everyone’s jobs.

“I think what’s actually dangerous,” Mr. Karp replied, “is that people who understand how to use this are going to capture a lot of the value of the market and everyone else is going to feel left behind.”

Mr. Karp’s iconoclastic style and ironclad beliefs have inspired memes and attracted a flock of online acolytes — some call him Papa Karp or Daddy Karp. He has no social media presence, but his online fans treat him like a mystic, obsessing over the tight white T-shirts he wears for earnings reports, his Norwegian ski outfits, his corkscrew hair, his Italian jeans and sunglasses and his extreme candor. (In a recent earnings report, Mr. Karp dismissed his rivals as “self-pleasuring” and engaging in “self-flagellation.”)

He is not, as one colleague puts it, “a wife, kids and dog person.”

“I tend to have long-term relationships,” he told me. “And I tend to end up with very high IQ women,” including some who tell him he’s talking nonsense.

He prefers what he calls a German attitude toward relationships, where “you have a much greater degree of privacy,” he said, with separate bedrooms and “your own world, your own thoughts, and you get to be alone a lot.” There is much less requirement to “micro-lie” about where you were or whom you were with.

I asked Mr. Karp about his 2013 quote to Forbes that “the only time I’m not thinking about Palantir is when I’m swimming, practicing qigong or during sexual activity.”

He frowned, noting: “It should be tai chi. I don’t know why people always conflate tai chi with qigong. Yes, that was in my early days, when we were a pre-public company and I was allowed to admit I had sexual activity.”

So it’s true that the notion of settling down and raising a family gives him hives?

“There’s some truth in that,” he said. “This is how I like to live. See, I’m sitting here doing my freedom thing. I train. I do distance shooting.” He reads. “Who else has a Len Deighton spy novel next to a book on Confucian philosophy?”

Many of the doyennes of Washington society would love to snag the eligible Mr. Karp for a dinner party. He told me he has “a great social life.” But when I asked him what that is, he replied, “First of all, I’m a cross-country skier, so then I do all this training.”

He continued, “To have an elite VO2 max, an elite level of strength, it’s just consistency and the Norwegian-style training method.”

Some who know Mr. Karp said that the happiest they had ever seen him was last year when Mike Allen reported for Axios that the C.E.O.’s body fat was an impressive 7 percent.

Mr. Karp may be able to do more than 20 miles of cross-country skiing without being out of breath, but there are some sports at which, he admitted, he’s “a complete zero. For example, ball sports. I really suck at them.”

Unlike Mr. Musk and other tech lords, Mr. Karp is not into micro-dosing ketamine or any other drug. “My drug is athletics,” he said. “I love drinking, but now I’ve moved to drinking very little because what I’ve noticed is if you’re traveling all the time, the alcohol, it really affects your brain.” He’s on the road about 240 days a year.

In a Senate room, Elon Musk smiles at Mr. Karp. They are seated next to each other and wearing jackets and ties.
Mr. Musk and Mr. Karp at the forum on A.I. in Washington last year.Credit…Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times

Mr. Karp said of his dyslexia: “I think this is not getting less, it’s likely getting more. In 40 years, I’ll be unable to read.”

In New Hampshire, we had a lunch of lobster pasta — he kept his panic button on the table — and then went shooting on his property. He expertly hit targets with a 9-millimeter pistol from 264 yards. When an aide suggested that a photographer not shoot Mr. Karp in the act of shooting, he overruled the idea.

“Actually, honestly, guns would be much better regulated if you had someone who knows guns,” he said. “I’m not a hunter. I’m an artist with a gun.”

(Later, Mr. Karp pointed out that he had been shooting at targets that were about twice as far from him as Mr. Trump was from his would-be assassin. “There’s something really wrong with security for our future president, or maybe not future president,” he said. “All these people need a different level of security.”)

Mr. Karp believes the Democrats need to project more strength: “Are we tough enough to scare our adversaries so we don’t go to war? Do the Chinese, Russians and Persians think we’re strong? The president needs to tell them if you cross these lines, this is what we’re going to do, and you have to then enforce it.”

He thinks that in America and in Europe, the inability or unwillingness to secure borders fuels authoritarianism.

“I see it as pretty simple: You have an open border, you get the far right,” he said. “And once you get them, you can’t get rid of them. We saw it in Brexit, we see it with Le Pen in France, you see it across Europe. Now you see it in Germany.”

“They should be much stricter,” he continued. That, he said, “is the only reason we have the rise of the right, the only reason. When people tell you we need an open border, then they should also tell you why they’re electing right-wing politicians, because they are.”

“The biggest mistake — and it’s not one politician, it’s a generation — was believing there was something bigoted about having a border, and there are just a lot of people who believe that,” he said.

Weeks later, we were back in the Washington office, which is dubbed Rivendell, after a valley in Tolkien’s Middle-earth, and is filled with tech goodies like a Ping-Pong table, a pool table and a towering replica of Chewbacca.

We picked up our conversation about politics, talking about the swap of President Biden and Vice President Harris, the rise of JD Vance, the assassination attempt and the changed political landscape.

Mr. Karp concurred with his friend Mr. Carville on the problem of drawing men to the Democratic Party, saying, “If this is going to be a party complaining about guys and to guys all the time, it’s not going to succeed.”

Wearing noise-canceling headphones and a black cap, Mr. Karp holds a silver pistol with two gloved hands at his outdoor shooting range in the New England countryside.
At the shooting range on his property in New Hampshire. “I’m an artist with a gun,” Mr. Karp said.Credit…Ryan David Brown for The New York Times

He continued: “The biggest problem with hard political correctness is it makes it impossible to deal with unfortunate facts. The unfortunate fact here is that this election is really going to turn on ‘What percentage of males can the Democrats still get?’”

Describing himself as “progressive but not woke,” he said, “We are so unwilling to talk to the actual constituents that are voting for the Democratic Party who would probably strongly prefer policies that are more moderate.”

Given Mr. Karp’s blended racial identity, I wondered how he felt about Mr. Trump’s attack on the vice president’s heritage.

“I think people are most fascinated by the fact of this whole Black-Jewish thing,” he said. “I tend to be less fascinated by that.”

He added: “I think that people always expect me somehow to see the world in one way or another, and I don’t really understand what that means. I see the world the way I see it. I think, at the end of the day, if people want to choose what their identity is, then they choose it, and that’s their definition.”

I note that he recently made an elite list of Black billionaires.

He shrugged. “Some Black people think I’m Black, some don’t,” he said. “I view me as me. And I’m very honored to be honored by all groups that will have me.”

He added: “I do not believe racism is the most important issue in this country. I think class is determinate, and I’m mystified by how often we talk about race. I’m not saying it doesn’t exist. I’m not saying people don’t have biases. Of course, we all do, but the primary thing that’s bad for you in this culture is to be born poor of any color.”

He said he would support class-based affirmative action and declared himself “pro draft.”

“I think part of the reason we have a massive cleavage in our culture is, at the end of the day, by and large, only people who are middle- and working-class do all the fighting,” he said.

Since I had last seen him, Mr. Karp had gotten caught between two of the battling billionaires of Silicon Valley, lords of the cloud vituperously fighting in public over the possible restoration of Donald Trump.

According to an account in Puck, Mr. Karp was onstage with the LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman at a conference last month in Sun Valley, Idaho, sponsored by the investment bank Allen & Company, when Mr. Hoffman called Mr. Thiel’s support for Mr. Trump “a moral issue.” Speaking up from his seat in the audience, Mr. Thiel sarcastically thanked Mr. Hoffman for funding lawsuits against Mr. Trump, which allowed the candidate to claim that he is “a martyr.”

Mr. Hoffman snapped back, “Yeah, I wish I had made him an actual martyr” — an unfortunate comment given what would later happen in Butler, Pa.

I asked Mr. Karp whether the encounter was as uncomfortable as it seemed.

“Well, I’m used to being uncomfortable,” he said. “I’m going to stick with my friends. I just feel the same way I always feel when Peter is under attack, which is: ‘This is my friend. I feel that my friend is being attacked, and I will defend him.’”

The fancy digital clock behind Mr. Karp’s desk, which tells time in German, had gone from “Es ist zehn nach drei” to “Es ist halb vier.”

It was time to go.

A moody portrait of Mr. Karp, who is shown mostly in shadow.
Mr. Karp said that while working at the Sigmund Freud Institute in Frankfurt, he learned things that were helpful to him later as a business leader.Credit…Ryan David Brown for The New York Times

Maureen Dowd: You run the Twitter account Alex Karp’s Hair.

Alex Karp: I wish.

Your favorite movie is the classic kung fu flick “The 36th Chamber of Shaolin.”

One of my favorite movies.

You have 10 houses around the world, from Alaska to Vermont, from Norway to New Hampshire.

You have to reframe that as I have 10 cross-country ski huts.

You love the idea of Peter Thiel backing Olympic-style games where the athletes will dope out in the open.

Deny. I want the best cross-country skiers to win without doping.

You love to watch spy shows and German movies, and one of your favorite filmmakers is Rainer Werner Fassbinder.

Confirm.

You have 20 identical pairs of swim goggles in your office.

No longer. I used to. I gave up swimming. There’s an emptiness to it.

You commissioned a French comic book, “Palantir: L’Indépendance,” with yourself as the protagonist.

Oui!

You starred in a movie by Hanna Laura Klar in 1998, “I Have Two Faces,” where you looked like a young Woody Allen.

I look better than Woody Allen.

Your dissertation is about how people transmit aggression subconsciously in language, presaging the rise of the right in America and Europe.

Often, the more charismatic ideologies were, the more irrational they were.

The dissertation touched on expressing taboo wishes. Do you want to share some of those?

I would love to express taboo wishes with you, but not to your audience.

I Stared Into the AI Void With the SocialAI App

SocialAI is an online universe where everyone you interact with is a bot—for better or worse.

Robot Hands Adults in a Crowd Glitch Effect

The first time I used SocialAI, I was sure the app was performance art. That was the only logical explanation for why I would willingly sign up to have AI bots named Blaze Fury and Trollington Nefarious, well, troll me.

Even the app’s creator, Michael Sayman, admits that the premise of SocialAI may confuse people. His announcement this week of the app read a little like a generative AI joke: “A private social network where you receive millions of AI-generated comments offering feedback, advice, and reflections.”

But, no, SocialAI is real, if “real” applies to an online universe in which every single person you interact with is a bot.

There’s only one real human in the SocialAI equation. That person is you. The new iOS app is designed to let you post text like you would on Twitter or Threads. An ellipsis appears almost as soon as you do so, indicating that another person is loading up with ammunition, getting ready to fire back. Then, instantaneously, several comments appear, cascading below your post, each and every one of them written by an AI character. In the new new version of the app, just rolled out today, these AIs also talk to each other.

When you first sign up, you’re prompted to choose these AI character archetypes: Do you want to hear from Fans? Trolls? Skeptics? Odd-balls? Doomers? Visionaries? Nerds? Drama Queens? Liberals? Conservatives? Welcome to SocialAI, where Trollita Kafka, Vera D. Nothing, Sunshine Sparkle, Progressive Parker, Derek Dissent, and Professor Debaterson are here to prop you up or tell you why you’re wrong.

Screenshot of the instructions for setting up the Social AI app.

Is SocialAI appalling, an echo chamber taken to the extreme? Only if you ignore the truth of modern social media: Our feeds are already filled with bots, tuned by algorithms, and monetized with AI-driven ad systems. As real humans we do the feeding: freely supplying social apps fresh content, baiting trolls, buying stuff. In exchange, we’re amused, and occasionally feel a connection with friends and fans.As notorious crank Neil Postman wrote in 1985, “Anyone who is even slightly familiar with the history of communications knows that every new technology for thinking involves a trade-off.” The trade-off for social media in the age of AI is a slice of our humanity. SocialAI just strips the experience down to pure artifice.

“With a lot of social media, you don’t know who the bot is and who the real person is. It’s hard to tell the difference,” Sayman says. “I just felt like creating a space where you’re able to know that they’re 100 percent AIs. It’s more freeing.”

You might say Sayman has a knack for apps. As a teenage coder in Miami, Florida, during the financial crisis, Sayman gained fame for building a suite of apps to support his family, who had been considering moving back to Peru. Sayman later ended up working in product jobs at Facebook, Google, and Roblox. SocialAI was launched from Sayman’s own venture-backed app studio, Friendly Apps.

In many ways his app is emblematic of design thinking rather than pure AI innovation. SocialAI isn’t really a social app, but ChatGPT in the container of a social broadcast app. It’s an attempt to redefine how we interact with generative AI. Instead of limiting your ChatGPT conversation to a one-to-one chat window, Sayman posits, why not get your answers from many bots, all at the same time?

Over Zoom earlier this week, he explained to me how he thinks of generative AI like a smoothie if cups hadn’t yet been invented. You can still enjoy it from a bowl or plate, but those aren’t the right vessel. SocialAI, Sayman says, could be the cup.

Almost immediately Sayman laughed. “This is a terrible analogy,” he said.

Sayman is charming and clearly thinks a lot about how apps fit into our world. He’s a team of one right now, relying mostly on OpenAI’s technology to power SocialAI, blended with some other custom AI models. (Sayman rate-limits the app so that he doesn’t go broke in “three minutes” from the fees he’s paying to OpenAI. He also hasn’t quite yet figured out how he’ll make money off of SocialAI.) He knows he’s not the first to launch an AI-character app; Meta has burdened its apps with AI characters, and the Character AI app, which was just quasi-acquired by Google, lets you interact with a huge number of AI personas.But Sayman is hand-wavy about this competition. “I don’t see my app as, you’re going to be interacting with characters who you think might be real,” he says. “This is really for seeking answers to conflict resolution, or figuring out if what you’re trying to say is hurtful and get feedback before you post it somewhere else.”

“Someone joked to me that they thought Elon Musk should use this, so he could test all of his posts before he posts them on X,” Sayman said.

I’d actually tried that, tossing some of the most trafficked tweets from Elon Musk and the Twitter icon Dril into my SocialAI feed. I shared a news story from WIRED; the link was unclickable, because SocialAI doesn’t support link-sharing. (There’s no one to share it with, anyway.) I repurposed the viral “Bean Dad” tweet and purported to be a Bean Mom on SocialAI, urging my 9-year-old daughter to open a can of beans herself as a life lesson. I posted political content. I asked my synthetic SocialAI followers who else I should follow.

The bots obliged and flooded my feed with comments, like Reply Guys on steroids. But their responses lacked nutrients or human messiness. Mostly, I told Sayman, it all felt too uncanny, that I had a hard time crossing that chasm and placing value or meaning on what the bots had to say.

Sayman encouraged me to craft more posts along the lines of Reddit’s “Am I the Asshole” posts: Am I wrong in this situation? Should I apologize to a friend? Should I stay mad at my family forever? This, Sayman says, is the real purpose of SocialAI. I tried it. For a second the SocialAI bot comments lit up my lizard brain, my id and superego, the “I’m so right” instinct. Then Trollita Kafka told me, essentially, that I was in fact the asshole.One aspect of SocialAI that clearly does not represent the dawn of a new era: Sayman has put out a minimum viable product without communicating important guidelines around privacy, content policies, or how SocialAI or OpenAI might use the data people provide along the way. (Move fast, break things, etc.) He says he’s not using anyone’s posts to train his own AI models, but notes that users are still subject to OpenAI’s data-training terms, since he uses OpenAI’s API. You also can’t mute or block a bot that has gone off the rails.

At least, though, your feed is always private by default. You don’t have any “real” followers. My editor at WIRED, for example, could join SocialAI himself but will never be able to follow me or see that I copied and pasted an Elon Musk tweet about wanting to buy Coca-Cola and put the cocaine back in it, just as he could not follow my ChatGPT account and see what I’m enquiring about there.

As a human on SocialAI, you will never interact with another human. That’s the whole point. It’s your own little world with your own army of AI characters ready to bolster you or tear you down. You may not like it, but it might be where you’re headed anyway. You might already be there.

Source: https://www.wired.com/story/socialai-app-ai-chatbots-chatgpt/

OpenAI Announces a New AI Model, Code-Named Strawberry Step – ChatGPT o1

The ChatGPT maker reveals details of what’s officially known as OpenAI o1, which shows that AI needs more

OpenAI made the last big breakthrough in artificial intelligence by increasing the size of its models to dizzying proportions, when it introduced GPT-4 last year. The company today announced a new advance that signals a shift in approach—a model that can “reason” logically through many difficult problems and is significantly smarter than existing AI without a major scale-up.

The new model, dubbed OpenAI o1, can solve problems that stump existing AI models, including OpenAI’s most powerful existing model, GPT-4o. Rather than summon up an answer in one step, as a large language model normally does, it reasons through the problem, effectively thinking out loud as a person might, before arriving at the right result.

“This is what we consider the new paradigm in these models,” Mira Murati, OpenAI’s chief technology officer, tells WIRED. “It is much better at tackling very complex reasoning tasks.”

The new model was code-named Strawberry within OpenAI, and it is not a successor to GPT-4o but rather a complement to it, the company says.

Murati says that OpenAI is currently building its next master model, GPT-5, which will be considerably larger than its predecessor. But while the company still believes that scale will help wring new abilities out of AI, GPT-5 is likely to also include the reasoning technology introduced today. “There are two paradigms,” Murati says. “The scaling paradigm and this new paradigm. We expect that we will bring them together.”

LLMs typically conjure their answers from huge neural networks fed vast quantities of training data. They can exhibit remarkable linguistic and logical abilities, but traditionally struggle with surprisingly simple problems such as rudimentary math questions that involve reasoning.

Murati says OpenAI o1 uses reinforcement learning, which involves giving a model positive feedback when it gets answers right and negative feedback when it does not, in order to improve its reasoning process. “The model sharpens its thinking and fine tunes the strategies that it uses to get to the answer,” she says. Reinforcement learning has enabled computers to play games with superhuman skill and do useful tasks like designing computer chips. The technique is also a key ingredient for turning an LLM into a useful and well-behaved chatbot.

Mark Chen, vice president of research at OpenAI, demonstrated the new model to WIRED, using it to solve several problems that its prior model, GPT-4o, cannot. These included an advanced chemistry question and the following mind-bending mathematical puzzle: “A princess is as old as the prince will be when the princess is twice as old as the prince was when the princess’s age was half the sum of their present age. What is the age of the prince and princess?” (The correct answer is that the prince is 30, and the princess is 40).

“The [new] model is learning to think for itself, rather than kind of trying to imitate the way humans would think,” as a conventional LLM does, Chen says.

OpenAI says its new model performs markedly better on a number of problem sets, including ones focused on coding, math, physics, biology, and chemistry. On the American Invitational Mathematics Examination (AIME), a test for math students, GPT-4o solved on average 12 percent of the problems while o1 got 83 percent right, according to the company.

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The new model is slower than GPT-4o, and OpenAI says it does not always perform better—in part because, unlike GPT-4o, it cannot search the web and it is not multimodal, meaning it cannot parse images or audio.

Improving the reasoning capabilities of LLMs has been a hot topic in research circles for some time. Indeed, rivals are pursuing similar research lines. In July, Google announced AlphaProof, a project that combines language models with reinforcement learning for solving difficult math problems.

AlphaProof was able to learn how to reason over math problems by looking at correct answers. A key challenge with broadening this kind of learning is that there are not correct answers for everything a model might encounter. Chen says OpenAI has succeeded in building a reasoning system that is much more general. “I do think we have made some breakthroughs there; I think it is part of our edge,” Chen says. “It’s actually fairly good at reasoning across all domains.”

Noah Goodman, a professor at Stanford who has published work on improving the reasoning abilities of LLMs, says the key to more generalized training may involve using a “carefully prompted language model and handcrafted data” for training. He adds that being able to consistently trade the speed of results for greater accuracy would be a “nice advance.”

Yoon Kim, an assistant professor at MIT, says how LLMs solve problems currently remains somewhat mysterious, and even if they perform step-by-step reasoning there may be key differences from human intelligence. This could be crucial as the technology becomes more widely used. “These are systems that would be potentially making decisions that affect many, many people,” he says. “The larger question is, do we need to be confident about how a computational model is arriving at the decisions?”

The technique introduced by OpenAI today also may help ensure that AI models behave well. Murati says the new model has shown itself to be better at avoiding producing unpleasant or potentially harmful output by reasoning about the outcome of its actions. “If you think about teaching children, they learn much better to align to certain norms, behaviors, and values once they can reason about why they’re doing a certain thing,” she says.

Oren Etzioni, a professor emeritus at the University of Washington and a prominent AI expert, says it’s “essential to enable LLMs to engage in multi-step problem solving, use tools, and solve complex problems.” He adds, “Pure scale up will not deliver this.” Etzioni says, however, that there are further challenges ahead. “Even if reasoning were solved, we would still have the challenge of hallucination and factuality.”

OpenAI’s Chen says that the new reasoning approach developed by the company shows that advancing AI need not cost ungodly amounts of compute power. “One of the exciting things about the paradigm is we believe that it’ll allow us to ship intelligence cheaper,” he says, “and I think that really is the core mission of our company.”

Source: https://www.wired.com/story/openai-o1-strawberry-problem-reasoning/

The Catch of Temu in Europe – July 2024

The Catch of Temu in Europe

Temu, the Chinese e-commerce platform, offers products at remarkably low prices, which raises concerns about its business practices. One significant issue is the undervaluation of parcels entering the EU. Estimates suggest that around 65% of parcels are deliberately undervalued in customs declarations to avoid tariffs, which undermines local businesses and creates an uneven playing field [1]. Additionally, Temu employs a direct-to-consumer model, sourcing products directly from manufacturers in China, allowing them to benefit from bulk discounts and reduced shipping costs [2].

Benefits for the Chinese State

The low pricing strategy of Temu serves multiple purposes for the Chinese state. Firstly, it helps expand China’s influence in global e-commerce by increasing the market share of Chinese companies abroad. This can lead to greater economic ties and dependency on Chinese goods. Secondly, by facilitating the export of low-cost products, Temu contributes to the Chinese economy by boosting manufacturing and logistics sectors. Lastly, the data collected from users can be leveraged for insights into consumer behavior, which may benefit Chinese businesses and potentially the state itself in terms of economic planning and strategy [1].

Overall, while Temu’s low prices attract consumers, they also raise significant regulatory and ethical concerns in Europe, prompting scrutiny from authorities regarding compliance with local laws and standards.

Deeper Analysis of Future Benefits for the Chinese State

Temu’s aggressive pricing strategy in Europe not only serves immediate commercial interests but also aligns with broader strategic goals of the Chinese state. Here are several potential future benefits for China:

  1. Economic Expansion and Market Penetration:
    By establishing a strong foothold in European markets through low prices, Temu can facilitate the expansion of Chinese goods into new territories. This not only increases sales volume but also enhances brand recognition and loyalty among European consumers. As more consumers become accustomed to purchasing Chinese products, it could lead to a long-term shift in buying habits, favoring Chinese brands over local alternatives.
  2. Strengthening Supply Chains:
    Temu’s model emphasizes direct sourcing from manufacturers, which can help streamline supply chains. This efficiency can be replicated across various sectors, allowing China to become a dominant player in global supply chains. By controlling more aspects of production and distribution, China can mitigate risks associated with international trade tensions and disruptions, ensuring a more resilient economic structure.
  3. Data Collection and Consumer Insights:
    The platform’s operations will generate vast amounts of consumer data, which can be analyzed to gain insights into European consumer behavior. This data can inform not only marketing strategies but also product development, allowing Chinese manufacturers to tailor their offerings to meet the specific preferences of European consumers. Such insights can enhance competitiveness and drive innovation within Chinese industries.
  4. Geopolitical Influence:
    By increasing its economic presence in Europe, China can leverage its commercial relationships to enhance its geopolitical influence. Economic ties often translate into political goodwill, which can be beneficial in negotiations on various fronts, including trade agreements and international policies. This strategy aligns with China’s broader goal of expanding its influence globally, as outlined in its recent political resolutions emphasizing the importance of state power and common prosperity.
  5. Promotion of Technological Advancements:
    As Temu grows, it may invest in technology to improve logistics, customer service, and user experience. This could lead to advancements in e-commerce technologies that can be exported back to China, enhancing domestic capabilities. Moreover, the emphasis on technology aligns with China’s ambitions to become a leader in areas such as artificial intelligence and data analytics, as highlighted in its national strategies.
  6. Cultural Exchange and Soft Power:
    By making Chinese products more accessible and appealing to European consumers, Temu can facilitate a form of cultural exchange. As consumers engage with Chinese brands, they may also become more receptive to Chinese culture and values, enhancing China’s soft power. This cultural integration can help counter negative perceptions and foster a more favorable view of China in the long term.

In conclusion, Temu’s low pricing strategy is not merely a tactic for market entry; it is a multifaceted approach that can yield significant long-term benefits for the Chinese state. By enhancing economic ties, gathering valuable consumer data, and promoting technological advancements, China positions itself to strengthen its global influence and economic resilience in an increasingly competitive landscape.

Why Elon Musk should consider integrating OpenAI’s ChatGPT „GPT-4o“ as the operating system for a brand new Tesla SUV – Here are the five biggest advantages to highlight

  1. Revolutionary User Interface and Experience:
    • Natural Language Interaction: GPT-4o’s advanced natural language processing capabilities allow for seamless, conversational interaction between the driver and the vehicle. This makes controlling the vehicle and accessing information more intuitive and user-friendly.
    • Personalized Experience: The AI can learn from individual driver behaviors and preferences, offering tailored suggestions for routes, entertainment, climate settings, and more, enhancing overall user satisfaction and engagement. 
  2. Enhanced Autonomous Driving and Safety:
    • Superior Decision-Making: GPT-4o can significantly enhance Tesla’s autonomous driving capabilities by processing and analyzing vast amounts of real-time data to make better driving decisions. This improves the safety, reliability, and efficiency of the vehicle’s self-driving features.
    • Proactive Safety Features: The AI can provide real-time monitoring of the vehicle’s surroundings and driver behavior, offering proactive alerts and interventions to prevent accidents and ensure passenger safety.
  3. Next-Level Infotainment and Connectivity:
    • Smart Infotainment System: With GPT-4o, the SUV’s infotainment system can offer highly intelligent and personalized content recommendations, including music, podcasts, audiobooks, and more, making long journeys more enjoyable.
    • Seamless Connectivity: The AI can integrate with a wide range of apps and services, enabling drivers to manage their schedules, communicate, and access information without distraction, thus enhancing productivity and convenience.
  4. Continuous Improvement and Future-Proofing:
    • Self-Learning Capabilities: GPT-4o continuously learns and adapts from user interactions and external data, ensuring that the vehicle’s performance and features improve over time. This results in an ever-evolving user experience that keeps getting better.
    • Over-the-Air Updates: Regular over-the-air updates from OpenAI ensure that the SUV remains at the forefront of technology, with the latest features, security enhancements, and improvements being seamlessly integrated.
  5. Market Differentiation and Brand Leadership:
    • Innovative Edge: Integrating GPT-4o positions Tesla’s new SUV as a cutting-edge vehicle, showcasing the latest in AI and automotive technology. This differentiates Tesla from competitors and strengthens its reputation as a leader in innovation.
    • Enhanced Customer Engagement: The unique AI-driven features and personalized experiences can drive stronger customer engagement and loyalty, attracting tech-savvy consumers and enhancing the overall brand image.

By leveraging these advantages, Tesla can create a groundbreaking SUV that not only meets but exceeds consumer expectations, setting new standards for the automotive industry and reinforcing Tesla’s position as a pioneer in automotive and AI technology.

Critical Infrastructure Is Sinking Along the US East Coast

Source: https://www.wired.com/story/critical-infrastructure-is-sinking-along-the-us-east-coast/

Last year, scientists reported that the US Atlantic Coast is dropping by several millimeters annually, with some areas, like Delaware, notching figures several times that rate. So just as the seas are rising, the land along the eastern seaboard is sinking, greatly compounding the hazard for coastal communities.

In a follow-up study just published in the journal PNAS Nexus, the researchers tally up the mounting costs of subsidence—due to settling, groundwater extraction, and other factors—for those communities and their infrastructure. Using satellite measurements, they have found that up to 74,000 square kilometers (29,000 square miles) of the Atlantic Coast are exposed to subsidence of up to 2 millimeters (0.08 inches) a year, affecting up to 14 million people and 6 million properties. And over 3,700 square kilometers along the Atlantic Coast are sinking more than 5 millimeters annually. That’s an even faster change than sea level rise, currently at 4 millimeters a year. (In the map below, warmer colors represent more subsidence, up to 6 millimeters.)

Map of eastern coastal cities
Courtesy of Leonard O Ohenhen

With each millimeter of subsidence, it gets easier for storm surges—essentially a wall of seawater, which hurricanes are particularly good at pushing onshore—to creep farther inland, destroying more and more infrastructure. “And it’s not just about sea levels,” says the study’s lead author, Leonard Ohenhen, an environmental security expert at Virginia Tech. “You also have potential to disrupt the topography of the land, for example, so you have areas that can get full of flooding when it rains.”

A few millimeters of annual subsidence may not sound like much, but these forces are relentless: Unless coastal areas stop extracting groundwater, the land will keep sinking deeper and deeper. The social forces are relentless, too, as more people around the world move to coastal cities, creating even more demand for groundwater. “There are processes that are sometimes even cyclic. For example, in summers you pump a lot more water, so land subsides rapidly in a short period of time,” says Manoochehr Shirzaei, an environmental security expert at Virginia Tech and coauthor of the paper. “That causes large areas to subside below a threshold that leads the water to flood a large area.” When it comes to flooding, falling elevation of land is a tipping element that has been largely ignored by research so far, Shirzaei says.

In Jakarta, Indonesia, for example, the land is sinking nearly a foot a year because of collapsing aquifers. Accordingly, within the next three decades, 95 percent of North Jakarta could be underwater. The city is planning a giant seawall to hold back the ocean, but it’ll be useless unless subsidence is stopped.

This new study warns that levees and other critical infrastructure along the Atlantic Coast are in similar danger. If the land were to sink uniformly, you might just need to keep raising the elevation of a levee to compensate. But the bigger problem is “differential subsidence,” in which different areas of land sink at different rates. “If you have a building or a runway or something that’s settling uniformly, it’s probably not that big a deal,” says Tom Parsons, a geophysicist with the United States Geological Survey who studies subsidence but wasn’t involved in the new paper. “But if you have one end that’s sinking faster than the other, then you start to distort things.”

The researchers selected 10 levees on the Atlantic Coast and found that all were impacted by subsidence of at least 1 millimeter a year. That puts at risk something like 46,000 people, 27,000 buildings, and $12 billion worth of property. But they note that the actual population and property at risk of exposure behind the 116 East Coast levees vulnerable to subsidence could be two to three times greater. “Levees are heavy, and when they’re set on land that’s already subsiding, it can accelerate that subsidence,” says independent scientist Natalie Snider, who studies coastal resilience but wasn’t involved in the new research. “It definitely can impact the integrity of the protection system and lead to failures that can be catastrophic.”

map of Virgina's coastal areas
Courtesy of Leonard O Ohenhen

The same vulnerability affects other infrastructure that stretches across the landscape. The new analysis finds that along the Atlantic Coast, between 77 and 99 percent of interstate highways and between 76 and 99 percent of primary and secondary roads are exposed to subsidence. (In the map above, you can see roads sinking at different rates across Hampton and Norfolk, Virginia.) Between 81 and 99 percent of railway tracks and 42 percent of train stations are exposed on the East Coast.

Below is New York’s JFK Airport—notice the red hot spots of high subsidence against the teal of more mild elevation change. The airport’s average subsidence rate is 1.7 millimeters a year (similar to the LaGuardia and Newark airports), but across JFK that varies between 0.8 and 2.8 millimeters a year, depending on the exact spot.

map of JFK airport aerial
Courtesy of Leonard O Ohenhen

This sort of differential subsidence can also bork much smaller structures, like buildings, where one side might drop faster than another. “Even if that is just a few millimeters per year, you can potentially cause cracks along structures,” says Ohenhen.

The study finds that subsidence is highly variable along the Atlantic Coast, both regionally and locally, as different stretches have different geology and topography, and different rates of groundwater extraction. It’s looking particularly problematic for several communities, like Virginia Beach, where 451,000 people and 177,000 properties are at risk. In Baltimore, Maryland, it’s 826,000 people and 335,000 properties, while in NYC—in Queens, Bronx, and Nassau—that leaps to 5 million people and 1.8 million properties.

So there’s two components to addressing the problem of subsidence: Getting high-resolution data like in this study, and then pairing that with groundwater data. “Subsidence is so spatially variable,” says Snider. “Having the details of where groundwater extraction is really having an impact, and being able to then demonstrate that we need to change our management of that water, that reduces subsidence in the future.”

The time to act is now, Shirzaei emphasizes. Facing down subsidence is like treating a disease: You spend less money by diagnosing and treating the problem now, saving money later by avoiding disaster. “This kind of data and the study could be an essential component of the health care system for infrastructure management,” he says. “Like cancers—if you diagnose it early on, it can be curable. But if you are late, you invest a lot of money, and the outcome is uncertain.”

Source: https://www.wired.com/story/critical-infrastructure-is-sinking-along-the-us-east-coast/

‘Cancer-stopping’ drug ‘annihilates’ solid tumours

AOH1996 has been developed over two decades to target a protein found in all forms of the disease

A new “cancer-stopping” drug has been found to “annihilate” solid cancerous tumours in early stage studies.

The chemotherapy drug leaves healthy cells unaffected, scientists said.

The AOH1996 drug is named after a child – Anna Olivia Healy, born in 1996, who died when she was only nine after being diagnosed with a rare childhood cancer neuroblastoma.

Prof Linda Malkas and her team spent two decades developing the drug that targets a protein in all cancers, including the cancer that led to Anna’s death.

The protein, proliferating cell nuclear antigen (PCNA), was once thought too challenging to aim targeted therapies at.

PCNA in its mutated form encourages tumours to grow by aiding DNA replication and repair of cancerous cells.

Prof Malkas and her team at the City of Hope in California, one of the United States’ largest cancer research and treatment organisations, said the targeted chemotherapy appears to “annihilate” all solid tumours in preclinical research.

Selectively kills cancer cells

AOH1996 was tested in more than 70 cell lines and was found to selectively kill cancer cells by disrupting the normal cell reproductive cycle, but it did not interrupt the reproductive cycle of healthy stem cells.

Pre-clinical studies suggest the drug has been shown to be effective in treating cells derived from breast, prostate, brain, ovarian, cervical, skin and lung cancers.

The drug still needs to go through rigorous safety and efficacy testing and large-scale clinical trials before it can be used widely.

The first patient received the potentially cancer-stopping pill in October with the phase one clinical trial still ongoing and expected to last for at least two years.

Patients are still being recruited to the trial.

Researchers are also still examining mechanisms that make the drug work in animal studies.

‘Like snowstorm that closes airline hub’

Prof Malkas said: “PCNA is like a major airline terminal hub containing multiple plane gates.

“Data suggests PCNA is uniquely altered in cancer cells, and this fact allowed us to design a drug that targeted only the form of PCNA in cancer cells.

“Our cancer-killing pill is like a snowstorm that closes a key airline hub, shutting down all flights in and out only in planes carrying cancer cells.”

The professor called the results “promising” but made clear that research has only found AOH1996 can suppress tumour growth in cell and animal models.

Long Gu, the lead author of the study, said: “No one has ever targeted PCNA as a therapeutic because it was viewed as ‘undruggable’, but clearly City of Hope was able to develop an investigational medicine for a challenging protein target.”

The study, titled “Small Molecule Targeting of Transcription-Replication Conflict for Selective Chemotherapy”, was published in the Cell Chemical Biology journal.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/08/02/new-cancer-drug-aoh1996-may-annihilate-solid-tumours-study/

The AI Founder Taking Credit For Stable Diffusion’s Success Has A History Of Exaggeration

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrickcai/2023/06/04/stable-diffusion-emad-mostaque-stability-ai-exaggeration/

Stability AI became a $1 billion company with the help of a viral AI text-to-image generator and — per interviews with more than 30 people — some misleading claims from founder Emad Mostaque.

By Kenrick Cai & Iain Martin, Forbes Staff

 

Emad Mostaque is the modern-day Renaissance man who kicked off the AI gold rush. The Oxford master’s degree holder is an award-winning hedge fund manager, a trusted confidant to the United Nations and the tech founder behind Stable Diffusion — the text-to-image generator that broke the internet last summer and, in his words, pressured OpenAI to launch ChatGPT, the bot that mainstreamed AI. Now he’s one of the faces of the generative AI wave and has secured more than $100 million to pursue his vision of building a truly open AI that he dreams will transform Hollywood, democratize education and vanquish PowerPoint. “Hopefully they’ll give me a Nobel Peace Prize for that,” he joked in a January interview with Forbes.

 

At least, that’s the way that he tells the story.

 

In reality, Mostaque has a bachelor’s degree, not a master’s degree from Oxford. The hedge fund’s banner year was followed by one so poor that it shut down months later. The U.N. hasn’t worked with him for years. And while Stable Diffusion was the main reason for his own startup Stability AI’s ascent to prominence, its source code was written by a different group of researchers. “Stability, as far as I know, did not even know about this thing when we created it,” Björn Ommer, the professor who led the research, told Forbes. “They jumped on this wagon only later on.”

 

“What he is good at is taking other people’s work and putting his name on it, or doing stuff that you can’t check if it’s true.”

A former Stability employee

These aren’t the only misleading stories Mostaque, 40, has told to maneuver himself to the forefront of what some are calling the greatest technological sea change since the internet — despite having no formal experience in the field of artificial intelligence. Interviews with 13 current and former employees and more than two dozen investors, collaborators and former colleagues, as well as pitch decks and internal documents, suggest his recent success has been bolstered by exaggeration and dubious claims.

 
 

After Stable Diffusion went viral last summer, blue-chip venture capital firms Coatue Management and Lightspeed Venture Partners poured in $100 million, giving Mostaque’s London-based startup a $1 billion valuation. By October, Stable Diffusion had 10 million daily users, Mostaque told Bloomberg. In May, the White House named Stability alongside Microsoft and Nvidia as one of the seven “leading AI developers” which would collaborate on a landmark federal AI safety initiative. Mostaque recently dined with Amazon founder Jeff Bezos; reclusive Google cofounder Sergey Brin made a rare public appearance at Stability’s ritzy launch party in San Francisco last October.

Mostaque’s vision for open-source AI has mesmerized other longtime technologists. “He’s probably the most visionary person I’ve ever met,” says Christian Cantrell, who left a two-decade career at Adobe to join Stability in October (he quit six months later and launched his own startup). More premier talent has followed since the cash injection last summer. Among the 140-person staff: a vice president of research and development who was a Nvidia director; another research head who came from Google Brain; and three Ph.D. students from Ommer’s lab.

But to build buzz around Stability, Mostaque made an elaborate gambit supported by exaggerated claims and promises, overstating his role in several major AI projects and embellishing a quotidian transaction with the notoriously uncompromising Amazon into a “strategic partnership” with an 80% discount. AI researchers with whom Mostaque worked told Forbes he claimed credit he did not earn or deserve. And when pressed, Stability spokesperson Motez Bishara admitted to Forbes that Stability had no special deal with Amazon.

Mostaque’s other mischaracterizations to investors include multiple fundraising decks seen by Forbes that presented the OECD, WHO and World Bank as Stability’s partners at the time — which all three organizations deny. Bishara said the company could not comment on the presentations “without knowing the exact version,” but that they were accompanied by additional data and documentation.

Inside the company, wages and payroll taxes have been repeatedly delayed or unpaid, according to eight former employees, and last year the UK tax agency threatened to seize company assets. (“There were several issues that were expeditiously resolved,” Bishara said.) At the same time that workers faced payday uncertainties, Mostaque’s wife Zehra Qureshi, who was head of PR and later assumed a seat on the company’s board of directors, transferred tens of thousands of pounds out of the company’s bank account, per several sources and screenshots of financial transactions viewed by Forbes. Stability spokesperson Bishara said the spouses had been “making loans to and from the business” and that “any amounts owed from or to Mostaque and Qureshi were settled in full before the end of 2022.”

In responding to a detailed list of questions, Mostaque shared a statement saying that Stability had not historically prioritized the “systems and processes” underpinning the fast-growing startup. “We recognize our flaws, and we are working to improve and resolve these issues in an effective and compassionate manner,” he wrote.

AI experts and prospective investors have been privately expressing doubts about some of Mostaque’s claims for months now. Despite Silicon Valley’s sudden, insatiable appetite for AI startups, a number of venture capitalists told Forbes that the Stability founder has been struggling to raise hundreds of millions more in cash at a roughly $4 billion valuation. Mostaque publicly claimed last October that annualized revenue had surpassed $10 million, but insiders say sales have not improved (Bishara said the October number was “a fair assessment of anticipated revenues at the time,” and declined to comment on current revenue). “So many things don’t add up,” said one VC who rejected Mostaque’s funding overtures.


A BILLION-DOLLAR GAMBIT

In 2005, Mostaque graduated from Oxford with a bachelor’s degree, not a master’s degree as he’d later claim. (Responding to an inquiry from Forbes, Bishara said Mostaque intended to apply to receive an “Oxford MA,” which the university grants to alumni without any additional graduate-level coursework. He is now expected to obtain that degree in July.)

Then he went into finance, joining Swiss fund manager Pictet. “He was very good at spinning a narrative,” said JP Smith, who hired Mostaque at Pictet and brought him over as a consultant at firm Ecstrat. In 2017, Mostaque joined hedge fund Capricorn, where Mostaque told Forbes he’d won an award for restructuring and running the struggling firm. “He was co-chief investment officer, but he didn’t pull the trigger on the investments,” clarified Damon Hoff, Capricorn’s cofounder. Hoff said the two-year run with the $330 million fund ended with its wind down in 2018 due to poor performance.

Following a string of abandoned startups (including a crypto project centered on a digitized Quran), Mostaque founded Stability in 2019 as an AI-powered data hub that global agencies would use to make decisions about Covid-19. It launched with a July 2020 virtual event featuring talks by Stanford AI expert Fei-Fei Li and representatives from UNESCO, WHO and the World Bank. But the project failed to get off the ground and was scrapped about a year later. “Lots of people promised a lot and they didn’t come through,” Mostaque told Forbes in January.

“One thing you learned from that is if you have a company with a huge press department, you can rebrand history in your interest.”

Björn Ommer, professor at Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich and Heidelberg University

The company’s focus shifted several more times. Early employees said they researched building a network of vending machine refrigerators around London that would be stocked with grab-and-go items, as well as a line of emotional support dog NFTs (Snoop Dogg was interested, employees recollect Mostaque claiming around the office; the rapper could not be reached for comment). When generative AI started exploding, Mostaque saw an opportunity. Through a variety of maneuvers and exaggerations, he would successfully position Stability as one of the leading unicorn AI companies of the moment.

To get there, Mostaque began telling investors that Stability was assembling one of the world’s 10 biggest supercomputers. He branded himself to AI researchers as a beneficent ally, magnanimously willing to provide funding and lend use of Stability’s supercomputer to grassroots AI builders fighting the good fight against goliaths like Google and OpenAI.

This supercomputer, Mostaque said, was built from thousands of Nvidia’s state-of-the-art GPUs and purchased with a stunning 80% discount from Amazon Web Services. Five fundraising pitch decks from May to August 2022 list AWS as a “strategic partner” or “partner.”

“We talked to Amazon and said this will be the big thing,” Mostaque told Forbes from his bustling London headquarters in January. “They cut us an incredibly attractive deal — certain personal guarantees and other things, which I don’t particularly want to go into because she’ll be angry at me,” he explained, nodding to Zehra Qureshi, his wife and Stability’s then-head of PR. Qureshi declined to elaborate.

But Bratin Saha, a vice president for the Seattle tech giant’s AI arm, told Forbes in January that Stability is “accessing AWS infrastructure no different than what our other customers do.” Three former Stability employees said that prior to its venture capital injection, Amazon had threatened to revoke the company’s access to some of its GPUs because it had racked up millions in bills that had gone unpaid for months.

Asked for clarification, Stability conceded that the “incredibly attractive deal” Mostaque had claimed was actually the standard discount Amazon offers to anybody who makes a long-term commitment to lease computing power. “Any payment issues were managed in an orderly and communicative way with support from AWS,” Bishara said. AWS did not respond to multiple requests for additional comment.

Stability’s pitch decks contained other exaggerations: In investor presentations from May and June 2022, Stability described AI image generator Midjourney as a part of its “ecosystem” claiming it had “co-created” the product and “organized” its user community. Midjourney founder David Holz told Forbes Mostaque gave a “very small” financial donation but otherwise had no connection with his organization.


Got a tip about a story? Reach out to the authors, Kenrick Cai at kcai@forbes.com or kenrick.cai@protonmail.com, or Iain Martin at iain.martin@forbes.com.


In addition, Mostaque directed his team to list groups like UNESCO, OECD, WHO and World Bank as partners in pitch decks, even though they were not involved in the company’s later evolution, according to four former employees. Bishara denied that Mostaque made this directive, but these organizations are indeed listed as “partners” in multiple fundraising decks as recent as August 2022, in which Mostaque also describes himself as the “UN Covid AI lead.”

A UNESCO spokesperson said the UN agency had no association with Stability beyond the Covid-19 data initiative, which had ended well before last summer. The other three agencies said they had no record of official partnerships with the company.

Asked about the claims in Stability’s pitch decks, Bishara said that all of Stability’s investor decks included investment memos and appendix documentation that contained more context on the Amazon deal and details of “our relationship with partners and more.” But two investors pitched by the company told Forbes they received no such additional information.


THE DEVELOPERS BEHIND STABLE DIFFUSION

In June 2022, Mostaque offered to provide Stability’s supercomputer to a group of German academics who had created an open-sourced image generator nicknamed Latent Diffusion. This model had launched seven months prior in collaboration with a New York City-based AI startup called Runway. But it was trained using only a few dozen Nvidia GPUs, according to Björn Ommer, the professor who led the research teams at Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich and Heidelberg University.

For the researchers, who were facing shockingly high computing costs to do their work, the proposal seemed to them a no-brainer. The computing boost Stability provided dramatically improved Latent Diffusion’s performance. In August, the new model was launched as Stable Diffusion, a new name that referenced its benefactor. Stability issued a press release and Mostaque positioned himself in the public eye as chief evangelist for what he calls “the most popular open source software ever.” (Linux or Firefox might disagree.)

“What he is good at is taking other people’s work and putting his name on it, or doing stuff that you can’t check if it’s true,” one former employee said of Mostaque. In a statement, Bishara said Mostaque is “quick to praise and attribute the work of collaborators” and “categorically denies these spurious claims and characterizations.”

Within days of Stable Diffusion’s launch, Stability secured $100 million from leading tech investment firms Coatue and Lightspeed — eight times the amount of money Mostaque set out to raise, he declared in text messages to his earlier investors. Both firms declined requests for comment.

“The investment thesis that we had is that we don’t know exactly what all the use cases will be, but we know that this technology is truly transformative and has reached a tipping point in terms of what it can do.”

Gaurav Gupta, Lightspeed partner who led the firm’s investment into Stability

The round valued Stability at $1 billion though the company hadn’t yet generated much revenue. Stability’s fundraising decks at the time characterized Stable Diffusion as “our” model, with no mention of the original researchers. A press release announcing its funding said “Stability AI is the company behind Stable Diffusion” making no reference whatsoever to its creators. Ommer told Forbes he’d hoped to publicize his lab’s work, but his university’s entire press department was on vacation at the time.

Bishara said that Stability has made “repeated public statements” crediting Ludwig Maximilian University and Runway on its website and on the Stable Diffusion’s GitHub page. Nevertheless, the original developers feel Mostaque misled the public in key communications. “One thing you learned from that is if you have a company with a huge press department, you can rebrand history in your interest,” Ommer said.

In October, Stability claimed Runway had stolen its intellectual property by releasing a new version of Stable Diffusion. Runway cofounder Cristóbal Valenzuela snapped back that a copyright breach wasn’t possible because the tech was open source; Mostaque retracted a takedown request hours later. He later told Forbes that he was worried about the lack of guardrails in Runway’s version — though Stable Diffusion’s collaborators don’t buy the excuse.

The incident, Ommer said, “pushed it too far over the edge.” Valenzuela was equally disillusioned. „New people are coming into this field that we’ve been in for years, and really trying to own narratives that they should not,” he told Forbes in an interview last year (he declined a request for further comment).

Both his lab and Runway ceased working with Stability.


MOM-AND-POP SHOP

While Mostaque was touting Stability’s supercomputer and partnerships to investors and researchers, the company was facing a cash crunch. Wages and payroll taxes were repeatedly delayed or unpaid, according to seven current and former employees — in some cases for more than a month. Five of these sources said they personally experienced delayed payments between 2020 and 2023. Four of these people independently told Forbes that representatives of HM Revenue & Customs, the U.K. government tax collection agency, appeared at the company office and threatened to seize assets due to overdue taxes. Bishara said that delayed payments on taxes and employee salaries have been rectified.

Eric Hallahan, a former intern, told Forbes he is still waiting for payment on an invoice he sent the company last August for 181 of the 300 hours he worked. Bishara said that the company has no record of missed salary payments “in the regular course of operations” since 2021, but conceded that some may have occurred under “extraneous circumstances”; in Hallahan’s case, he said Stability is looking into the invoice after being alerted to it in April.

While staffers said they stressed over being paid last summer, tens of thousands of British pounds moved from Stability’s corporate account to the personal account of Qureshi, Mostaque’s wife, per screenshots of financial transactions obtained by Forbes.

Bishara attributed the transactions to Stability’s “owner-managed startup” origins, which he said included the couple making loans to and from the company. “As the company grew and matured, a full reconciliation was done and any amounts owed from or to Mostaque and Qureshi were settled in full before the end of 2022 by the new, experienced finance team,” he told Forbes. Qureshi’s lawyers declined to answer questions but shared a statement in which she said she had provided “emotional and financial support” to her husband’s business since 2021.

While Qureshi’s formal role at the company was head of PR, early employees told Forbes she had described herself as Stability’s chief operating officer — a title that also appeared on business cards. (Bishara said Qureshi never held an executive role and the cards were “created by a family friend for design purposes and were never used.”) After the company raised funding in September, Qureshi joined its board of directors.

One current and four former employees who declined to be named for fear of retribution said Qureshi regularly scolded employees so harshly that she drove some to tears. Qureshi described her management style as “direct” in a statement shared through her lawyers. “Unfortunately it seems that my views or directions were taken personally by a few individuals, which was not my intention.”

“Start to finish,” Mostaque told Forbes, he needed just six days to secure $100 million from leading investment firms Coatue and Lightspeed once Stable Diffusion went viral.

Bishara said Qureshi left the company in late January to pursue personal endeavors and that she is no longer on the board. However, an organizational chart from earlier in May listed her as the “Head of Foundation,” at the top of the company hierarchy equal to Mostaque’s position.

Qureshi, through counsel, shared a statement: “I recognised that the time had come for us to move in different directions and I stepped down from my role as Head of PR at the start of this year, and have also resigned from the Board. Emad and I have young children who need my focus, and I also intend to pursue other, personal projects, but I will continue to support my husband in his quest to build and grow Stability AI into a global leader in the field.”


GROWING PAINS

Venture capitalists historically spend months performing due diligence, a process that involves analyzing the market, vetting the founder and speaking to customers, to check for red flags before investing in a startup. But “start to finish,” Mostaque told Forbes, he needed just six days to secure $100 million from leading investment firms Coatue and Lightspeed once Stable Diffusion went viral. The extent of due diligence the firms performed is unclear given the speed of the investment.

“The investment thesis that we had is that we don’t know exactly what all the use cases will be, but we know that this technology is truly transformative and has reached a tipping point in terms of what it can do,” Gaurav Gupta, the Lightspeed partner who led the investment, told Forbes in a January interview. Coatue and Lightspeed declined requests for further comment.

Mostaque says Stability is building bespoke AI models for dozens of customers. But he told Forbes that he is only authorized to name two. The first is Eros Investments, an Indian holding company whose media arm was delisted from the New York Stock Exchange and recently settled a lawsuit alleging that it misled investors, though it did not admit wrongdoing. (Eros did not respond to multiple requests for comment.) The second: the African nation Malawi, where, Mostaque said on a recent podcast appearance, Stability is currently “deploying four million tablets to every child.” (Malawi’s government did not return requests for comment.)

Less than two months after Stable Diffusion’s public launch, Mostaque claimed that Stability’s annualized revenue was higher than the “low tens of millions of dollars” that OpenAI was reportedly making at the time. Sources familiar with the matter said Stability’s ARR is now less than $10 million — and that it’s far outpaced by the startup’s burn rate. Like many AI startups raising vast amounts of cash right now, it will need more money to stay afloat.

In January, Mostaque implied that the company was having no issues with fundraising: “We have been offered by many, many entities and we’ve said no,” he told Forbes. But three venture capitalists told Forbes he has been pitching them and other investors on raising a fresh $400 million for several months; they’d all passed. (Bishara declined to comment on revenue, but said the company has “significant” cash reserves remaining.)

Stability is also facing a pair of lawsuits which accuse it of violating copyright law to train its technology. It filed a motion to dismiss one from a class action of artists on grounds that the artists failed to identify any specific instances of infringement. In response to the other, from Getty Images, it said Delaware — where the suit was filed — lacked jurisdiction and has moved to change the location to Northern California or dismiss the case outright. Both motions are pending court review. Bishara declined to comment on both suits.

In an open letter last September, Democratic representative Anna Eshoo urged action in Washington against the open source nature of Stable Diffusion. The model, she wrote, had been used to generate images of “violently beaten Asian women” and “pornography, some of which portray real people.” Bishara said newer versions of Stable Diffusion filter data for “potentially unsafe content, helping to prevent users from generating harmful images in the first place.”

AI research has not come easy for Stability — even on its flagship Stable Diffusion product. The last version of the model published by the original developers (released in October 2022) received three times as many downloads last month on Hugging Face, which hosts the models, as compared to the most popular version published in-house by Stability. And StableLM, its ChatGPT competitor, was released in April to a tiny fraction of Stable Diffusion’s fanfare.

Mostaque is unfazed. Stability has a seasoned technical leader to spearhead research: himself. He claims to have discovered a bespoke medical treatment for autism years ago by using AI to analyze existing scientific literature and build a knowledge graph of molecular compounds. (Bishara said the research was done privately and declined to elaborate further.)

“I’m a good programmer,” Mostaque told Forbes in January. It all dates back to a gap year he said he took before Oxford to be a developer at software company Metaswitch, he continued. “I didn’t know how to program before that, so I taught myself over the summer — quite naturally actually,” he says. By his account, he submitted several pieces of code and made a personal plea to the company: “I want to be a programmer and you should pay me to be a programmer. They said sure.”

“I can be quite convincing at times,” he says.

Why Apple’s iMessage Is Winning: Teens Dread the Green Text Bubble

The iPhone maker cultivated iMessage as a must-have texting tool for teens. Android users trigger a just-a-little-less-cool green bubble: ‘Ew, that’s gross.’

Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-apples-imessage-is-winning-teens-dread-the-green-text-bubble-11641618009

https://images.wsj.net/im-464252/square

Soon after 19-year-old Adele Lowitz gave up her Apple AAPL 0.51% iPhone 11 for an experimental go with an Android smartphone, a friend in her long-running texting group chimed in: “Who’s green?”

The reference to the color of group text messages—Android users turn Apple Inc.’s iMessage into green bubbles instead of blue—highlighted one of the challenges of her experiment. No longer did her group chats work seamlessly with other peers, almost all of whom used iPhones. FaceTime calls became more complicated and the University of Michigan sophomore’s phone didn’t show up in an app she used to find friends.

That pressure to be a part of the blue text group is the product of decisions by Apple executives starting years ago that have, with little fanfare, built iMessage into one of the world’s most widely used social networks and helped to cement the iPhone’s dominance among young smartphone users in the U.S. 

How that happened came to light last year during Apple’s courtroom fight against “Fortnite” maker Epic Games Inc., which claimed the tech giant held an improper monopoly over distribution of apps onto the iPhone. As part of the battle, thousands of pages of internal records were made public. Some revealed a long-running debate about whether to offer iMessage on phones that run with Google’s Android operating system. Apple made a critical decision: Keep iMessage for Apple users only. 

“In the absence of a strategy to become the primary messaging service for [the] bulk of cell phone users, I am concerned the iMessage on Android would simply serve to remove [an] obstacle to iPhone families giving their kids Android phones,” Craig Federighi, Apple’s chief software executive, said in a 2013 email. Three years later, then-marketing chief Phil Schiller made a similar case to Chief Executive Tim Cook in another email: “Moving iMessage to Android will hurt us more than help us,” he said. Another warning that year came from a former Apple executive who told his old colleagues in an email that “iMessage amounts to serious lock-in.” 

When Adele Lowitz, left, experimented with using an Android smartphone instead of an iPhone, one friend asked: ‘Who’s green?’ PHOTO: STEVE KOSS FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

When Adele Lowitz, left, experimented with using an Android smartphone instead of an iPhone, one friend asked: ‘Who’s green?’ PHOTO: STEVE KOSS FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

From the beginning, Apple got creative in its protection of iMessage’s exclusivity. It didn’t ban the exchange of traditional text messages with Android users but instead branded those messages with a different color; when an Android user is part of a group chat, the iPhone users see green bubbles rather than blue. It also withheld certain features. There is no dot-dot-dot icon to demonstrate that a non-iPhone user is typing, for example, and an iMessage heart or thumbs-up annotation has long conveyed to Android users as text instead of images. 

Apple later took other steps that enhanced the popularity of its messaging service with teens. It added popular features such as animated cartoon-like faces that create mirrors of a user’s face, to compete with messaging services from social media companies. Apple’s own survey of iPhone holders made public during the Epic Games litigation found that customers were particularly fond of replacing words with emojis and screen effects such as animated balloons and confetti. Avid teen users said in interviews with The Wall Street Journal that they also liked how they could create group chats with other Apple users that add and subtract participants without having to start a new chain. 

How Apple’s iPhone and Apps Trap You in a Walled GardenYOU MAY ALSO LIKEUP NEXT 0:00 / 6:21How Apple’s iPhone and Apps Trap You in a Walled Garden How Apple’s iPhone and Apps Trap You in a Walled GardenApple’s hardware, software and services work so harmoniously that it is often called a “walled garden.” The idea is central to recent antitrust scrutiny and the Epic vs. Apple case. WSJ’s Joanna Stern went to a real walled garden to explain it all. Photo illustration: Adele Morgan/The Wall Street Journal

The cultivation of iMessage is consistent with Apple’s broader strategy to tie its hardware, software and services together in a self-reinforcing world—dubbed the walled garden—that encourages people to pay the premium for its relatively expensive gadgets and remain loyal to its brand. That strategy has drawn scrutiny from critics and lawmakers as part of a larger examination of how all tech giants operate. Their core question: Do Apple and other tech companies create products that consumers simply find indispensable, or are they building near-monopolies that unfairly stifle competition?

Apple in its fight against Epic Games denied it held improper monopoly power in the smartphone market, pointing to intense competition globally with other phone makers and Android’s operating system. “With iMessage we built a great service that our users love and that is different from those offered by other platforms,” the company said in a statement.

Apple and other tech giants have long worked hard to get traction with young users, hoping to build brand habits that will extend into adulthood as they battle each other for control of everything from videogames to extended reality glasses to the metaverse. Globally, Alphabet Inc.’s Android operating system is the dominant player among smartphone users, with a loyal following of people who are vocal about their support. Among U.S. consumers, 40% use iPhones, but among those aged 18 to 24, more than 70% are iPhone users, according to Consumer Intelligence Research Partners’s most recent survey of consumers.

Shoppers at an Apple store in November.

PHOTO: NIYI FOTE/ZUMA PRESS

Apple is not the first tech company to come up with a must-have chat tool among young people, and such services sometimes struggle to stay relevant. BlackBerry and America Online were among the popular online communication forums of past decades that eventually lost ground to newer entrants. 

Yet grabbing users so early in life could pay dividends for generations for Apple, already the world’s most valuable publicly traded company. It briefly crossed $3 trillion in market value for the first time on Jan. 3. 

“These teenagers will continue to become consumers in the future and hopefully continue to buy phones into their 40s, 50s, 60s and 70s,” said Harsh Kumar, an analyst for Piper Sandler. The firm recently found that 87% of teens surveyed last year own iPhones. 

Never date a green texter

Apple’s iMessage plays a significant role in the lives of young smartphone users and their parents, according to data and interviews with a dozen of these people. Teens and college students said they dread the ostracism that comes with a green text. The social pressure is palpable, with some reporting being ostracized or singled out after switching away from iPhones. 

“In my circle at college, and in high school rolling over into college, most people have iPhones and utilize a lot of those kinds of iPhone specific features” together, said Ms. Lowitz, the Michigan student. 

She said she came to realize that Apple had effectively created a social network of features that keeps users, such as her and others, locked in. “There was definitely some kind of pressure to get back to that,” she said. 

Many of the new iMessage features—such as the 3D-like digital avatars known as memojis—exist fundamentally as a reason to own an iPhone and don’t make money for Apple directly. Last year Apple also made it possible to share FaceTime connections with Android users—a slight crack in Apple’s self-reinforcing ecosystem as video calling became more prevalent during the pandemic. In recent years, however, it has incorporated some moneymaking elements including Apple Pay and e-commerce links to other businesses such as Starbucks.

“We know that Apple users appreciate having access to innovative features like iCloud synching across all their Apple devices, Tapback and Memoji, as well as industry-leading privacy and security with end-to-end encryption—all of which make iMessage unique,” Apple said in a statement.Youthful ExuberanceThe share of Apple iPhones in the U.S. has swelled​dramatically among young smartphone owners. Source: Consumer Intelligence Research PartnersNote: Annual survey conducted each September of 2,000 U.S. people​who purchased a smartphone in the previous 12 months. Age 18-24Older than 242014’15’16’17’18’19’20’2120304050607080%

Apple’s iMessage uses the internet to send text, video and photo messages, while iPhone users communicating with non-Apple users use old-school cellular channels such as SMS and MMS. Apple said its closed, encrypted system ensures messages are protected from hackers. Apple also disputes the idea that users are locked in to iMessage, saying users can easily switch to other smartphones.

A Google executive said Apple could make it easier for iMessage and Android users to communicate. “There are no real technical or product reasons for this issue,” Hiroshi Lockheimer, Google senior vice president of platforms and ecosystems, said. “The solutions already exist and we encourage Apple to join with the rest of the mobile industry in implementing them. We believe people should have the ability to connect with each other without artificial limits. It simply doesn’t have to be like this.” TECH NEWS BRIEFINGWhat Apple’s Texting App Tells Us About Its Strategy to Attract Users 00:00

IPhone users switch among a variety of apps to communicate. But if you use an iPhone, it is likely you’re also using iMessage. Apple’s internal research made public during the Epic Games litigation found that a survey of U.S. iPhone users, some as young as 14, overwhelmingly use iMessage. Among those who used an instant messaging app at least once a month, 85% of those surveyed said they used iMessage compared with 57% and 16% using Meta’s Facebook Messenger and WhatsApp, respectively, the Apple research showed. Meta’s messaging apps are widely used globally. WhatsApp, for example, topped 2 billion users in 2020.

In the pitched battle for messaging, Facebook executives in recent years became interested in capturing users at a younger age, according to documents reviewed by the Journal that formed the basis of a series of articles, called the Facebook Files, published in recent months. 

One Facebook study, shared internally in 2019, aimed to understand why iMessage and SnapInc.’s Snapchat were the primary messaging apps for 10- to 13-year-olds. The research focused attention on a popular game played through iMessage called “Game Pigeon.” 

The third-party game, acquired through Apple’s App Store and designed to operate in the messaging app, illustrates just one of the ways iMessages connects with young people. The game consists of users taking turns playing activities, such as checkers or word games, and allows for texting back-and-forth among players. “Game Pigeon” can’t be played between iPhone and Android users.

PHOTO: MILES FRANKLIN

Facebook researchers concluded the appeal revolved around the social aspect of the games, helping younger people initiate conversations. “Game Pigeon generates amusement through digital interaction without the pressures of finding topics of conversation by enabling tweens to send games as content interactions and to use shared activities as a way to connect when they feel there is nothing to talk about,” according to the study.

Rounds of “Game Pigeon” in high school among friends were the first time Miles Franklin said he realized he was left out with his Android phone. “That’s my first taste of it,” said Mr. Franklin, now a 22-year-old senior at the University of Florida in Gainesville. 

He said he long considered himself an Android loyalist going back to when he got his first phone at age 13 for his birthday. That changed, however, two years ago when he switched to an iPhone because he preferred it for making TikTok videos. 

While it seems simple enough to shift to another messaging service, it isn’t in real life, according to Mr. Franklin. “I personally would do that,” he said. “But I’m not everyone else. I can’t convince other people to switch over to another app because they’re not gonna want to do that unless you’re really close to them.” 

Grace Fang, 20-years-old, said she too saw such social dynamics among her peers at Wellesley College in Massachusetts. “I’ve had people with Androids apologize that they have Androids and don’t have iMessage,” she said. “I don’t know if it’s Apple propaganda or just like a tribal in-group versus out-group thing going on, but people don’t seem to like green text bubbles that much and seem to have this visceral negative reaction to it.” Ms. Fang added that she finds the hubbub silly and that she prefers to avoid texting all together. 

‘I’ve had people with Androids apologize that they have Androids and don’t have iMessage,” said Grace Fang.

PHOTO: ASHLEY PANDYA

Jocelyn Maher, a 24-year-old master’s student in upstate New York, said her friends and younger sister have mocked her for exchanging texts with potential paramours using Android phones. “I was like, `Oh my gosh, his texts are green,’ and my sister literally went, `Ew that’s gross,’” Ms. Maher said. 

She noted that she once successfully persuaded a boyfriend to switch to an iPhone after some gentle badgering. Their relationship didn’t last. 

Such interactions have made fertile ground for memes on social media. During the pandemic, Jeremy Cangiano, who just finished up his MBA at the University of Massachusetts Lowell, dealt with his boredom on TikTok, quickly noticing that blue-bubble-green-bubble memes were popular among young people. He tried to cash in on it last year by selling his own merchandise that touted, “Never Date a Green Texter.” 

‘Serious lock-in’

The blue iMessage bubble was born out of a simple engineering need, according to Justin Santamaria, a former Apple engineer who worked on the original feature. At first, Apple engineers just wanted to be able to easily identify iMessages when working with other texting formats as they developed their system, he said. The effect just stuck as it moved forward for consumer rollout. 

“I had no idea that there would be a cachet or like, `Ugh green bubble conversations,’” he said. The idea that it would keep users locked in to using Apple devices wasn’t even part of the conversation at the time, he said. 

The idea of opening iMessage to Android users arose in 2013, according to some of the internal records made public during the courtroom fight with Epic Games. As a market rumor circulated that Google was considering the acquisition of the popular messaging app WhatsApp, senior Apple executives discussed how such an acquisition might roil competition and how they might better compete. 

Eddy Cue, who oversees Apple’s services business, told his colleagues he had some of his team investigating how to make iMessage available on Android phones, according to an email that surfaced as part of the Epic Games litigation. “We should go full speed and make this an official project,” he advised. “Google will instantly own messaging with this acquisition.” 

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Mr. Schiller, the executive who at the time oversaw marketing, wrote: “And since we make no money on iMessage what will be the point?” Mr. Cue responded: “Do we want to lose one of the most important apps in a mobile environment to Google? They have search, mail, free video and growing quickly in browsers. We have the best messaging app and we should make it the industry standard. I don’t know what ways we can monetize it but it doesn’t cost us a lot to run.” 

Others weighed in. Mr. Federighi, Apple’s chief software executive, said in an email that he worried that making iMessage an option on Android could have a serious downside by removing an obstacle for iPhone families to get their children Android phones. 

In the end, Google didn’t buy WhatsApp and Apple didn’t make its iMessage available to Android users. Facebook ultimately acquired WhatsApp in 2014 for $22 billion, ratcheting up competition with Apple. 

In just a few years, the value of iMessage’s blue texts had become more clear to Apple execs. After an executive left the company and began using an Android, he wrote former colleagues in 2016 and said he had switched back to iPhones after just a few months.

His family resorted to using Facebook products to message him, former Apple Music executive Ian Rogers said in the email. “I missed a ton of messages from friends and family who all use iMessage and kept messaging me at my old address,” he wrote, adding that “iMessage amounts to serious lock-in.” 

The note, which became public during Apple’s litigation with Epic Games, eventually made its way to Mr. Cook through then-marketing chief Mr. Schiller, who added his own two cents: “Moving iMessage to Android will hurt us more than help us, this email illustrates why.” 

As for Ms. Lowitz, the Michigan college student, she was glad when her switch to Android—brought about by her participation in a paid research study—came to an end. She was ready to get back to her iPhone. “There’s too much within the Apple network for me to switch,” she said. 

Anna Fuder, 19, a friend at Michigan who had declined to participate in the study for fear of giving up her iPhone, was overjoyed. “As soon as she switched back to her iPhone, it was like hallelujah,” Ms. Fuder said. “Blue again.

What Apple has lost—and gained—since Steve Jobs died 10 years ago

By multiple standards, the company is doing better than even an optimist would have predicted in 2011. But it still has a Steve Jobs-shaped hole in it.

What Apple has lost—and gained—since Steve Jobs died 10 years ago
Fans use smartphones to photograph a makeshift shrine in London after Steve Jobs’s death from pancreatic cancer at the age of 56 on October 5, 2011. [

Ten years ago today, I happened to be attending a trade show in Tokyo when a tech journalist friend back in California phoned to ask if I’d heard Steve Jobs had died. I hadn’t: Apple had just made the sad announcement and it hadn’t yet overtaken Twitter, news sites, and—it would soon seem—every other form of media.

Rather than continuing with my trip as planned, I spent the rest of it writing multiple pieces about Apple’s cofounder and his impact on his company and the world. Throughout, I did my best to avoid coming to any snap judgments about what an Apple without Jobs would look like. Even a year after Jobs’s death, I marked its anniversary by arguing that it was too soon to judge how Apple was faring, in part because the company was still releasing products that he’d had a hand in shaping.

Nine years after that, I have no excuses. Tim Cook has been Apple’s CEO for more than a fifth of the company’s history. Comparing his Apple to Steve Jobs’s legacy remains tricky, since we’ll never know how Jobs would have handled the same decisions Cook has made. But since it’s no longer premature to ponder such matters, I’m going to give it a shot. And I’m going to divide my musings into four broad categories.

Apple as a business

This one’s easy.

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When Jobs died, some who weighed in about Apple’s future—including Oracle CEO Larry Ellison, a close Jobs friend—expected the worst. You didn’t have to think Jobs was irreplaceable to guess that Cook would have his hands full dealing with threats such as the growing popularity of phones based on Google’s Android operating system.

Still, many observers concluded that Apple stood a good chance of flourishing under Cook. Hedge fund manager James Altucher, who had already predicted that Apple would be the first $1 trillion company, doubled down on the prognostication after Jobs’s passing.

But even Altucher didn’t talk about Apple becoming the first company to reach a valuation of $2 trillion, a feat it achieved less than nine years after Jobs’s death. Apple is now worth more than six times what it was on October 5, 2011. As the smartphone market matured, Cook turned out to be one of the best CEOs in the history of business, adroitly keeping Apple growing through strategies such as bolstering its services portfolio.

From a Wall Street perspective, the unanswerable question that feels most pertinent is not “would Apple have been more successful if Steve Jobs was still CEO?” Instead, it’s more like “would an Apple run by Steve Jobs have matched Tim Cook’s history-making financial results?”

The next big thing(s)

For the first year or two of Tim Cook’s tenure as Apple CEO, some pundits helpfully explained that Jobs had unveiled an epoch-shifting gadget every couple of years—and that Cook would be a failure if he didn’t continue that pace. As I wrote back then, this was silly. For one thing, even Jobs didn’t change history with anything like the frequency that people thought he did. For another, Cook deserved more than two years to prove how much vision Apple would have under his leadership.

Enough time has passed that it’s now fair to compare Cook’s biggest products to Jobs landmarks such as the Apple II, Mac, iPod, iTunes, iPhone, and iPad. Apples biggest all-new product since 2011 has unquestionably been the Apple Watch, which is now worn by 100 million people, including a third of iPhone users in the U.S. Judged purely as a revenue generator, the smartwatch deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as Jobs’s signature products: It’s a bigger business than the iPod was at its height.

The other obvious megahit of the Cook years are AirPods, which defined the modern wireless-earbud category and still lead it; they’re as iconic as wired iPod earbuds once were—and vastly more profitable for Apple.

Any Apple rival would salivate at the prospect of creating a business as successful as the Apple Watch and AirPods have been. Still, neither is culturally transformative in the way that Jobs’s biggest successes were. Rather than changing everything about our relationship with technology in one or two fell swoops, the Apple Watch has done well because Apple has patiently took something that initially felt like a tiny computer for your wrist and refocused it on fitness and health. Meanwhile, AirPods, delightful though they are, are ultimately an accessory, at least for the time being. And there’s a limit to how much an accessory can reshape human life.

But if Apple hasn’t managed to shift any epochs lately, that’s understandable. Neither has anyone else in the consumer electronics business:

  • On the smartphone front, pricey folding phones from Samsung and Microsoft cater to a niche that doesn’t feel like it’s about to explode.
  • Amazon’s Alexa has done more than Apple’s Siri to propel AI-infused voice interfaces to prominence, but it hasn’t rendered smartphones any less important.
  • Thanks to Facebook’s Oculus, virtual reality has made great strides, but a heck of a lot of people still haven’t strapped on a headset even once.
  • On the consumer hardware front, augmented reality has inspired some notorious flops; its successes, such as Pokémon Go and Google Lens, have gained traction by leveraging smartphones rather than replacing them.
  • From Facebook and Twitter to TikTok, social media has changed the world over the past decade, but it feels less like an invention than a virus that got out of control.
  • You might make the case that Elon Musk’s Tesla has had an Apple-like impact on the automotive industry, but the electrification of passenger vehicles remains a story in progress.

It’s even clearer in retrospect than it was during Jobs’s life that it might be impossible to top the iPhone by coming up with an even more popular, profitable gizmo. Had Jobs gotten another decade as Apple CEO, he might have chosen to pour most of the company’s energy into the evolution and expansion of the iPhone and iPad—just as Cook’s Apple has done. Incremental improvements to existing products, after all, were just as key to Jobs’s success as the great leaps forward.

One other thing: All evidence suggests that Apple hasn’t given up on trying to reinvent additional product categories. It’s just tackling ones that are hyper-ambitious even by its own standards—such as VR/AR headsets and cars—and is happy to chip away in private rather than hype stuff that won’t appear for years. Which means that it’s still too early to declare that we’ve seen the last history-making new Apple product.

The little things

Steve Jobs was not an inventor so much as an editor. None of the products he’s remembered for were the first in their category, and every one of them bulged with work done by people who had skills that Jobs did not possess. But he had a near-superhuman ability to know what to put into a product and what to leave out. He could make the seams between hardware and software nearly vanish. He made hard decisions that were often questioned, but almost always prescient and—eventually—widely imitated.

No single person has taken on that responsibility in the Cook era, and it shows. Compared to earlier days, the company has released more than its share of half-baked products, such as 2013’s iOS 7, whose newly minimalist look felt like a rough draft. In 2014, it had to create a $10,000 Apple Watch to learn that such a device made no sense. Instead of making touch-screen Macs, it replaced the MacBook Pro’s function keys with a skinny touchscreen in 2016, seemingly making very few people happy. Right now, the odd changes which the company decided to make to its Safari browser—and has only partially unwound—seem like an instance of inadequate editing of its raw ideas.

In all these cases, I’m not going to say “Steve Jobs would never have allowed that,” because . . . well, he might have. His own mistakes were often doozies. But present-day Apple does feel like it’s lost the final polish that Jobs gave almost everything.

Still, even if Apple errs in public more than it once did, it usually gets to a good place eventually. In the post-Jobs era, the iPhone lineup has had some false starts—remember the proudly plasticky iPhone 5c?—and grew confusing as Apple added more and more variants. But the four new iPhone 13 models—and the still-available iPhone SE—make for the most comprehensible iPhone line since the days when it consisted of a grand total of one phone. And by making the new iPhones slightly thicker and heavier to allow for larger, longer-lasting batteries, Apple abandoned Jobs’s thinner-is-better instincts to achieve a sensible goal. That’s an infinitely smarter act of editing than asking “what would Steve do?”

Steve Jobs the industry presence

We didn’t just lose Steve Jobs the business executive, strategic thinker, and product polisher 10 years ago. We lost the guy who may have been the single most memorable personality the consumer-tech business ever produced:

When most of us envision Jobs, what we see is the man onstage at the product presentations so inextricably associated with him that they were known as “Stevenotes.” Even if you steadfastly refused to get sucked into his reality distortion field, these demos were remarkably compelling. It wasn’t just because he was one of the best explainers the tech industry has ever seen, or even because he occasionally did reveal stuff that blew your socks off. Up there on stage—often by himself—he came off as human, even vulnerable, in a way that few business executives would choose to make themselves. That was true all along, and even more so in his final years as each appearance was an opportunity for public speculation about his health.

For a few years after Jobs’s death, Apple product launches were overseen by Cook and other longtime Jobs associates, and felt like Stevenotes that had been stripped of their most important ingredient. As people noted with increasing frequency that the same handful of white guys represented Apple at every event, the company began to switch things up, calling on a larger, more diverse group of Apple employees to divvy up the presenting. With the COVID-19 pandemic and the shift to virtual events, the company ventured even further away from the Stevenote approach. Even if it returns to live product launches in 2022, it seems likely that high-production-value canned videos will play a larger part than when almost everything that mattered was happening in front of a live audience.

Steve Jobs is in no danger of being forgotten. But more and more, when Apple does things that he wouldn’t have, it’s not a sign that the company has lost its way. Instead, it’s evidence that Apple is still restlessly looking forward rather than obsessing over its past. And what could be more Steve Jobs-like than that?